Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Topeka, KS

151 
WWUS53 KTOP 160226
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
926 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

KSC013-160236-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-170416T0230Z/
Brown-
926 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 930 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3996 9546 3983 9570 3999 9579 4000 9579
      4000 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 333DEG 11KT 4000 9565 

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
645 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

This afternoon, the surface cold front was located in western Kansas
with a tight pressure gradient continuing over the area today.  Deep
mixing lead to some wind gusts up to 40 mph late morning, especially
in east central Kansas, with continued gusts this afternoon up to 35
mph. These gusty south southwesterly winds throughout all of
northeast Kansas are expected to end by this evening as the front
approaches.

Main focus of the period is with thunderstorms developing ahead of
the cold front late this afternoon and evening. Even with storms
this morning temporarily reinforcing the cap, sufficient
destablilzation should occur through the afternoon for storm
development. The best timing for storms looks to be early this
evening near or after 7pm in northeastern Kansas.  With models
depicting between 2000-2500 J/kg and 25-30 kts of effective shear,
storms may become severe in nature, especially during their initial
formation.  Mid level lapse rates are impressive creating a threat
for large hail for any discrete cells or any cells with rotating
updrafts within a line of storms. After formation, storms will merge
into a line making damaging winds the primary threat.  The severe
threat will diminish late this evening.

The front hangs up around southeastern Kansas Sunday morning in
southeastern Kansas.  Isentropic lift over this boundary during the
morning and afternoon will lead to slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday, mainly south of I-70.  The rest of the CWA
will stay dry for the day.  Temperatures will be cooler Sunday than
today due to persistent northeasterly flow and cloud cover.  Highs
will generally be in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Sunday night the cold front will stall out over southern KS as the
flow aloft becomes zonal. The chances for showers and storms will
increase late Sunday night as a subtle shortwave trough supports
additional development. The NAM is much further south with the
majority of the precipitation as compared to the GFS and ECMWF. The
GFS ensembles show that the best chances will be mainly along and
south of interstate 70. There will be a decent moisture flux above
the front, which will contribute to MU cape around 500-1000 j/kg.
There should be a break in the precipitation on Monday until the
warm front lifts back northward Monday night and into Tuesday. On
Tuesday a compact shortwave trough tracks over the northern plains
with a trailing cold front extending southward across the central
plains. Any shower and storm activity in the morning will be the
result of isentropic lift in the mid levels. The cold front is
forecasted to pass through the area on Tuesday and will be the focus
for showers and thunderstorms. The instability appears to be modest
ahead of the front although the shear and large scale lift will be
marginal, but given the instability strong to severe storms can not
be ruled out. That front will quickly lift northward as a stronger
shortwave trough lifts out of the Rockies. There should be more
forcing with this shortwave trough and the fronts within the
vicinity will lead to increased chances for precipitation. On
Wednesday there is a chance the area could end up in the warm sector
therefore strong to severe storms can not be ruled out. Late in the
week an even stronger shortwave trough lifts out over the plains.
Although the exact track is still uncertain and therefore the
details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Convective trends are the main concern for this forecast. Still
have too little confidence to be specific and have kept TEMPO for
4 hours in the next several hours. VFR conditions will dominate by
11Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
323 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this morning may produce hail.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and evening across the outlook area. The main hazards are large
hail, damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

As a series of storm systems make their way across the state
through the week, locally heavy rainfall is possible and could
bring localized flooding and river flooding. Stay tuned for
updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and early
evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
753 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             7 NNW RANDOLPH          39.53N 96.81W
04/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       RILEY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
758 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             6 N RANDOLPH            39.52N 96.75W
04/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WAS COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
803 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             6 N WELLS               39.22N 97.55W
04/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
807 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             5 NNW RANDOLPH          39.50N 96.80W
04/15/2017  E1.25 INCH       RILEY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
812 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             5 N RANDOLPH            39.51N 96.76W
04/15/2017  E2.50 INCH       RILEY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
839 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             BLAINE                  39.50N 96.40W
04/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

BAERG