Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The area will remain on the western edge of the surface ridge today
with its axis south of the area. A lee-side trough remains just
north of us. The 12Z KTAE sounding showed low to mid level
southwesterly flow, favorable for scattered sea-breeze-induced
convection. This is what we are seeing on radar this afternoon.
We'll see the convection develop slowly inland across our inland FL
zones. More isolated convection will occur across our northwestern
zones ahead of the trough. Isolated storms could linger into the
evening hours north of I-10 before dissipating. Another round of
isolated showers and storms will develop over the Gulf of Mexico
overnight and could come ashore before dawn along the panhandle
coast. It will be a typically muggy night with lows in the mid
70s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

An eastern CONUS trough will amplify a bit Saturday and Sunday as
a couple of shortwaves move through the Midwest. At the surface,
ridging will prevail locally with a cold front forecast to pull up
just short of the Tri-State region on Sunday. PoPs will be
slightly above normal over the weekend, driven by the seabreeze,
weak synoptic forcing, and possibly the front on Sunday. Afternoon
highs will be near the mid 90s on Saturday and closer to the lower
90s on Sunday.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will retreat to the north beginning on
Monday, with deep layer ridging taking over through the end of
next week. The surface front will dissipate in place across the
Southeast as well. PoPs may still be slightly elevated on Monday
as the front dissipates nearby, with normal rain chances due to
the seabreezes expected for the remainder of the period. Highs
will gradually climb back through the middle 90s into the upper
90s by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions are forecast outside of thunderstorms. TLH will see
TS in and around the terminal early in this cycle. DHN may also get
some TS close to the terminal later this afternoon. Morning
convection over the Gulf of Mexico could get close to ECP by around
14Z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days.
The only exceptions will slight afternoon wind and sea
enhancements in the seabreeze zone.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected for the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While storms will be a bit more numerous on Saturday and Sunday,
average 2-day totals should range between 1-2". Thereafter,
typical summertime storms and coverage are expected. Thus the
expected QPF over the weekend and the scattered nature of storms
through next week should preclude any river, urban, or rural
flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  93  74  91  73 /  10  50  20  70  30
Panama City   79  88  78  87  79 /  20  50  40  50  30
Dothan        74  90  74  90  74 /  20  50  20  60  30
Albany        75  91  74  91  74 /  20  40  20  60  50
Valdosta      73  95  73  93  72 /  10  30  20  60  40
Cross City    75  92  74  90  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
Apalachicola  78  89  77  88  77 /  10  30  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE CRAWFORDVILLE     30.16N 84.36W
07/07/2017                   WAKULLA            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF TREE DOWN ON HINES ST

&&

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
242 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

ALZ068-FLZ007-072015-
Geneva AL-North Walton FL-
242 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GENEVA AND NORTHWESTERN
WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 242 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm 9 miles east of Florala, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Samson, Liberty, Gordon, Earlytown, Hacoda, Spears, Pera, Cluster
Springs, Gaskin, Sand Hill, Weeks, Sellersville, Lytle, Marl, Logan
Field Municipal A/P, Ganer, New Harmony, Lowery and Caney Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8627 3100 8619 3111 8619 3119 8614
      3113 8589 3099 8602 3099 8604 3097 8604
      3080 8620 3088 8634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 217DEG 23KT 3100 8617

ADL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE TALLAHASSEE       30.45N 84.28W
07/07/2017                   LEON               FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN MIDTOWN TALLAHASSEE ON CHERRY ST

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE FLORALA           30.94N 86.28W
07/07/2017                   WALTON             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF TREE DOWN ON HWY 331 N

&&

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
334 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

ALZ065-072115-
Coffee AL-
334 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COFFEE COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

At 333 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm 7 miles north of Elba, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Lee, Java, Richburg, Mixons Crossroads, Victoria, Eanon, Lowry
Mill, Wilkinstown, Zoar, Camp Humming Hills, Wise Mill, Arcus,
Woodland Grove Church, Bluff Spring and Jack.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8607 3162 8602 3157 8582 3135 8599
      3149 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 284DEG 13KT 3153 8608

ADL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
338 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

ALZ065-066-068-072115-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-Geneva AL-
338 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DALE...SOUTHEASTERN
COFFEE AND NORTH CENTRAL GENEVA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 337 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles south of Enterprise, moving northeast at
15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Enterprise, Level Plains, Clayhatchee, Coffee Springs,
Chancellor, Keyton, Coppinville, Central City and Cool Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 8581 3123 8569 3121 8569 3120 8571
      3119 8566 3110 8587 3117 8597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 235DEG 13KT 3121 8587

ADL