Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The area will remain on the western edge of the surface ridge today
with its axis south of the area. A lee-side trough remains just
north of us. The 12Z KTAE sounding showed low to mid level
southwesterly flow, favorable for scattered sea-breeze-induced
convection. This is what we are seeing on radar this afternoon.
We'll see the convection develop slowly inland across our inland FL
zones. More isolated convection will occur across our northwestern
zones ahead of the trough. Isolated storms could linger into the
evening hours north of I-10 before dissipating. Another round of
isolated showers and storms will develop over the Gulf of Mexico
overnight and could come ashore before dawn along the panhandle
coast. It will be a typically muggy night with lows in the mid
70s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

An eastern CONUS trough will amplify a bit Saturday and Sunday as
a couple of shortwaves move through the Midwest. At the surface,
ridging will prevail locally with a cold front forecast to pull up
just short of the Tri-State region on Sunday. PoPs will be
slightly above normal over the weekend, driven by the seabreeze,
weak synoptic forcing, and possibly the front on Sunday. Afternoon
highs will be near the mid 90s on Saturday and closer to the lower
90s on Sunday.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will retreat to the north beginning on
Monday, with deep layer ridging taking over through the end of
next week. The surface front will dissipate in place across the
Southeast as well. PoPs may still be slightly elevated on Monday
as the front dissipates nearby, with normal rain chances due to
the seabreezes expected for the remainder of the period. Highs
will gradually climb back through the middle 90s into the upper
90s by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions are forecast outside of thunderstorms. TLH will see
TS in and around the terminal early in this cycle. DHN may also get
some TS close to the terminal later this afternoon. Morning
convection over the Gulf of Mexico could get close to ECP by around
14Z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days.
The only exceptions will slight afternoon wind and sea
enhancements in the seabreeze zone.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected for the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While storms will be a bit more numerous on Saturday and Sunday,
average 2-day totals should range between 1-2". Thereafter,
typical summertime storms and coverage are expected. Thus the
expected QPF over the weekend and the scattered nature of storms
through next week should preclude any river, urban, or rural
flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  93  74  91  73 /  10  50  20  70  30
Panama City   79  88  78  87  79 /  20  50  40  50  30
Dothan        74  90  74  90  74 /  20  50  20  60  30
Albany        75  91  74  91  74 /  20  40  20  60  50
Valdosta      73  95  73  93  72 /  10  30  20  60  40
Cross City    75  92  74  90  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
Apalachicola  78  89  77  88  77 /  10  30  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan