Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions are forecast outside of thunderstorms. TLH will see
TS in and around the terminal early in this cycle. DHN may also
get some TS close to the terminal later this afternoon. Morning
convection over the Gulf of Mexico could get close to ECP by
around 14Z Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [957 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The area will remain on the western edge of the surface ridge
today, with a lee-side trough just north of the area. The 12Z
KTAE sounding showed a PW around 1.7" which is near normal and the
same as yesterday. We expect the isolated convection near the
coast to increase to scattered as it develops inland this
afternoon. PoPs were left unchanged after 18Z, but we did tweak
the earlier PoP based on radar trends. The temperature forecast
looks on track as well with most areas expected to peak in the
mid 90s once again. Peak heat indices will range from 98-105
degrees today.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mid level trough across the eastern third of the US will persist
through the period. A weak frontal boundary will sag into the
Tri-State region this weekend adding extra moisture to the column.
The result will be increased chances for showers and storms,
especially in the afternoon and early evening each day as the
seabreeze front activates. Due to the expected increase in
cloudiness, high temperatures will be moderated somewhat into the
lower 90s and lows into the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The aforementioned mid level trough will remain entrenched across
the eastern third of the US through Monday at which time the
trough lifts northeastward and is replaced by building high
pressure across the four corners into the southern Plains. Typical
afternoon and evening seabreeze and diurnal convection each day
with chances running 30-40%. Highs each day will be in the lower
to middle 90s.

.MARINE...

Light winds with low seas will prevail through the period outside
of any showers and thunderstorms.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected for the next
several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Low chances for flooding is anticipated for the upcoming period
with only isolated to scattered showers expected. Therefore,
widespread flash flooding is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  91  74  90  74 /  10  50  20  50  40
Panama City   79  87  78  87  77 /  20  50  40  40  30
Dothan        75  90  74  90  73 /  30  50  20  40  30
Albany        75  91  74  91  74 /  30  40  20  50  30
Valdosta      74  92  74  92  73 /  10  30  20  50  40
Cross City    74  92  74  90  74 /  10  20  20  40  40
Apalachicola  78  90  77  88  77 /  10  30  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Scholl