Alert archive / Minnesota / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 408

July 11, 201715 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 11, 2017, 4:48 PM CDT for 15 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 11, 2017, 4:48 PM CDT (21:48 UTC)
Expired
Jul 11, 2017, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 27 counties

Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
50%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

25 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 11, 5:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrand Forks, Nelson66 min
Jul 11, 5:25 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFMarshall50 min
Jul 11, 5:35 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFGrand Forks, Walsh40 min
Jul 11, 5:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFKittson, Marshall60 min
Jul 11, 5:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrand Forks59 min
Jul 11, 5:48 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFCavalier, Ramsey, Walsh42 min
Jul 11, 6:01 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFGrand Forks44 min
Jul 11, 6:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFMarshall, Polk44 min
Jul 11, 6:21 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFMarshall, Polk39 min
Jul 11, 6:27 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFCavalier, Pembina, Walsh48 min
Jul 11, 6:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFKittson39 min
Jul 11, 6:42 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFGrand Forks, Steele, Traill48 min
Jul 11, 7:02 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFPolk43 min
Jul 11, 7:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFMarshall, Polk36 min
Jul 11, 7:19 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFGFNorman, Polk41 min
Jul 11, 7:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFPembina41 min
Jul 11, 7:47 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFPennington, Polk, Red Lake27 min
Jul 11, 7:59 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFClay, Norman, Polk46 min
Jul 11, 8:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFPennington, Polk, Red Lake56 min
Jul 11, 8:34 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFBecker, Clay, Mahnomen, Norman41 min
Jul 11, 9:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBecker, Clay, Mahnomen, Norman, Otter Tail61 min
Jul 11, 9:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrant35 min
Jul 11, 9:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrant, Otter Tail62 min
Jul 11, 10:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBecker, Hubbard, Otter Tail, Wadena67 min
Jul 11, 10:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBecker, Clay, Otter Tail67 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 292 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2017-07-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 34 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2017-07-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 83 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
34 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-303 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2064 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
145 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

834 
WWUS20 KWNS 112140
SEL8  
SPC WW 112140
MNZ000-NDZ000-120400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northwestern Minnesota
  Eastern North Dakota

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected from 5-7 pm CDT
across eastern North Dakota, and storms will subsequently spread to
the east-southeast into Minnesota.  Initial supercells will be
capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and isolated very large
hail, while storms could grow upscale into a small cluster or two
late this evening with an increase in the damaging wind threat.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of Hallock MN to 50
miles south southwest of Detroit Lakes MN. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29025.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 11, 3:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Big Stone, Chippewa, Clay, Douglas, Grant and 16 more87 min
Jul 11, 6:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Lac qui Parle, Lincoln, Lyon and 7 more5 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2017Tornado Watches in North Dakota, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.