Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
353 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Broad upper level trough was over southern Canada. Upper
trough will slowly shift east of the area by 12Z Thu.
Upper level ridging will commence thereafter over the
Rockies. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level jet
nosing into ND with showers mainly over northern MN for
the afternoon.

Now waiting for storms to develop late this afternoon.
Highest mixed layer capes were around 3500 j/kg over
eastern ND with LI's around -6. Precipitable water
was around an inch and a half. Mixed layer CIN was
falling below 50 over central and southeast ND.
Convective temps ranged from 90 to 95 degrees in the
western zones. Surface trough extended north-south
over eastern ND. Expect storms to develop over the
next couple hours.

Upper level low pressure system over the area will
produce showers over northern MN for Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

In the wake of the system crossing the area, expect some lingering
showers, mainly over northwest MN. Northerly flow behind the system
will pull some cooler air out of Canada limiting high temperatures
to around the 70 degree mark. The upper ridge quickly rebounds by
Thursday, with high temperatures working their way back into the
80s, with near 90 degree temps by Friday.

For Saturday...Guidance indicates another wave crossing the area
bringing chances for another round of showers or storms, with a
slight cool down in its wake for Sunday.

Otherwise, the upper level pattern looks to remain progressive
through the end of the period, with a series of impulses crossing
the area. Expect more chances for precipitation as the impulses
propagate through the flow, and high temperatures are forecast to
remain generally in the mid to upper 80s, and lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Look for a mix of sun and clouds through the rest of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

VFR conditions were across the area except in northern Lake of the
Woods county where MVFR conditions were located. Expect VFR
conditions for this afternoon and early evening except obviously
in thunderstorms. MVFR conditions across southern MAN will shift
south into the forecast area later this evening and overnight.
Expect MVFR conditions across at least the northeast two thirds of
the area by 18z Wed.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-121200-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
1150 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible across
the region during the late afternoon and evening hours. This is a
slight delay in timing to the original thinking. The highest risk
will be across west central Minnesota where coverage will be
greater, although severe storms are possible everywhere. Hail to
over 2 inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts to around 75 mph,
tornadoes, and localized heavy rain are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
529 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 E ROCKLAKE            48.79N 99.20W
07/11/2017                   TOWNER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO VIEWED FROM NEAR CALVIN.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
540 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NE ROCKLAKE           48.80N 99.23W
07/11/2017                   TOWNER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD BEING MONITORED BY DEPUTY RELAYED VIA 911
            CALL CENTER THROUGH NAWAS

&&

BP