Alert archive / New York / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 185

May 1, 201729 counties in New York; 29 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 1, 2017, 2:12 PM EDT for 29 counties in New York; 29 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 1, 2017, 2:12 PM EDT (18:12 UTC)
Expired
May 1, 2017, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 58 counties

Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Elk County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Potter County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA, Wyoming County, PA

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
90%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

56 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 1, 2:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFChautauqua55 min
May 1, 2:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPWarren68 min
May 1, 3:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFErie, Niagara60 min
May 1, 3:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie54 min
May 1, 3:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPElk, McKean87 min
May 1, 3:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPWarren17 min
May 1, 3:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFErie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans, Wyoming58 min
May 1, 3:48 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPElk27 min
May 1, 3:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus55 min
May 1, 3:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCambria, Clearfield94 min
May 1, 4:06 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPMcKean39 min
May 1, 4:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFGenesee, Livingston, Monroe, Orleans, Wyoming14 min
May 1, 4:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCameron, Potter68 min
May 1, 4:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFGenesee, Livingston, Monroe, Orleans, Wyoming51 min
May 1, 4:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFAllegany, Livingston62 min
May 1, 4:35 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPPotter55 min
May 1, 4:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFLivingston, Monroe, Ontario, Wayne53 min
May 1, 4:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre, Clinton113 min
May 1, 4:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSteuben50 min
May 1, 5:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSomerset29 min
May 1, 5:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSteuben, Yates43 min
May 1, 5:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPBedford, Blair84 min
May 1, 5:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPPotter, Tioga95 min
May 1, 5:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCambria, Clearfield, Somerset25 min
May 1, 5:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFJefferson, Oswego54 min
May 1, 5:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Yates50 min
May 1, 5:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCayuga, Seneca, Steuben, Yates48 min
May 1, 5:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLycoming61 min
May 1, 5:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFCayuga, Ontario, Wayne59 min
May 1, 6:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPBlair, Huntingdon69 min
May 1, 6:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFJefferson, Lewis, Oswego66 min
May 1, 6:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCayuga, Cortland, Onondaga, Schuyler, Seneca, Tompkins46 min
May 1, 6:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Cortland, Schuyler, Steuben, Tioga, Tompkins66 min
May 1, 6:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCayuga, Madison, Oneida, Onondaga60 min
May 1, 6:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPMifflin59 min
May 1, 6:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLycoming, Snyder, Union84 min
May 1, 6:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre, Clinton46 min
May 1, 6:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCortland, Madison, Oneida, Onondaga56 min
May 1, 6:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPJuniata, Snyder68 min
May 1, 7:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBradford43 min
May 1, 7:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSullivan55 min
May 1, 7:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Cortland, Madison, Tioga, Tompkins61 min
May 1, 7:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Montour, Northumberland61 min
May 1, 7:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMMadison, Oneida59 min
May 1, 7:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Susquehanna, Wyoming41 min
May 1, 7:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSnyder21 min
May 1, 8:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego58 min
May 1, 8:17 PM EDTTornado WarningBGMChenango, Otsego26 min
May 1, 8:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLackawanna, Luzerne, Pike, Susquehanna, Wayne, Wyoming61 min
May 1, 8:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPBedford, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon46 min
May 1, 8:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Lycoming, Montour, Sullivan36 min
May 1, 8:47 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPFranklin, Fulton, Huntingdon26 min
May 1, 8:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLackawanna, Luzerne, Wyoming39 min
May 1, 9:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPJuniata, Perry54 min
May 1, 9:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLackawanna, Luzerne, Wyoming51 min
May 1, 9:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Montour, Northumberland, Snyder80 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-05-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-05-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 306 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1242 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
306 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
318 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

906 
WWUS20 KWNS 011808
SEL5  
SPC WW 011808
NYZ000-PAZ000-LEZ000-LOZ000-020200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and central New York
  Northern and central Pennsylvania
  Lake Erie
  Lake Ontario

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until
  1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of storms is expected to progress
across parts of New York and Pennsylvania into this evening.
Damaging wind will be the primary hazard, with a few tornadoes also
possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
either side of a line from 15 miles east northeast of Watertown NY
to 45 miles west northwest of Altoona PA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 184...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 22045.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 1, 1:41 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Genesee, Livingston, Ontario, Steuben and 2 more64 min
May 1, 4:36 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Madison and 11 more84 min
May 1, 6:29 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Chenango, Clinton, Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess and 20 more61 min
May 1, 6:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlbany, Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess, Essex, Franklin and 15 more4 hr
May 1, 7:16 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNew York, Richmond, Rockland, Westchester2 hr
May 1, 11:59 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette and 8 more2 hr
May 1, 12:32 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Crawford and 11 more4 hr
May 1, 5:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon and 3 more5 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in New York, 2017Tornado Watches in Pennsylvania, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.