Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
856 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area this evening with
thunderstorms and showers. Some of the thunderstorms will have
damaging winds and heavy rain. Much cooler air with scattered
showers will be across the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
845 pm update...Line of severe storms continues to sweep east
and as of the mid evening affecting areas in the Wyoming Valley
of PA north and east into far eastern Broome, Chenango, into
Delaware and Otsego Counties. Damaging winds will continue to be
the main threat but we still can't rule out tornadoes. Also,
hydro will have to be watched as these storms are producing
heavy rain but the good news is they are for the most part
progressive. Instability has been decreasing somewhat but the
shear, dynamics, and kinematics are strong so expect that severe
weather will be possible with this line right through the
Catskills and Poconos. Storms will exit the forecast area by
around midnight. Also, we continue to lop off counties from the
watch over western parts of the forecast area as the storms
clear these areas.

7 pm update...
update for a severe thunderstorm watch rest of area until
midnight. Single solid line with stratiform line behind.
Behaving but moving slowly east across cwa. Minor changes to
grids, mostly temperatures behind line which have dropped to
around 60.

330 PM update...
Tornado watch now in effect until 10 PM for western three
quarters of cwa. Very strong wind fields with speed shear due to
increasing winds with height and low level turning. Some
clearing ahead of the solid line in western NY/western PA has
created low level instability due to surface heating. This will
all translate east. Line moves into Steuben between 4 and 5 PM
then to SYR around 6 pm, BGM 7/8 PM, AVP 9 PM. In the southeast
low level clouds have been slow to erode today keeping it much
cooler and also more stable. At this time not sure if a watch
will be needed for the far eastern counties.

Other problems could be heavy rain. Amounts in the strongest
storms over one inch. This could cause minor problems. With this
one line being the whole show for now flooding is not expected
to be that much. Movement is slow now but some increase in
forward speed is expected. Will continue to hold off on a flash
flood watch. Late evening into early morning showers end and
the front goes through. Colder air slow to move in the lows in
the low and mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM Update...

A stacked low moves northeast from the Midwest into the Great
Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. A westerly flow of cool moist
air will keep showers across the area this period. The best
chance will be in NY. Amounts will be light. Some sun but with
the cooler air high temperatures only get to 55 to 60 in NY and
around 60 PA Tuesday. Wednesday even colder with highs mostly 50
to 55. Low temperatures Tuesday night around 40. With little
clearing and winds at 10 mph, frost is not likely. Rainfall
amounts under half an inch with the highest Syracuse/Utica. Near
zero for Scranton.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
335 PM Update...
Models disagree on the details but are solid on the overall
picture of a large showery upper low dropping over our region
and persisting in our vicinity for most of the period.

Before the low, a passing surface high Wednesday night will
first lead to a brief window of less cloud cover and radiational
cooling, resulting in lows in the mid to upper 30s. Some of our
coldest pockets could get to around freezing, something to keep
in mind for those who have vulnerable plants out early.

Upper low then brings an extended period of cool wet weather.
On Thursday, moist warm air advection aloft will cause showers
to develop. The surface warm front itself will struggle to reach
our region, holding highs back to mainly 50s for Thursday and
upper 50s-lower 60s Friday. With the low drifting directly
overhead, our main batch of rain will be Thursday night through
Friday. Periods of showers can then still be expected through
the weekend with instability of cold air aloft, and lobes of
vorticity pinwheeling around the upper low. All told, easily 1
to 2 inches of rain could be spread out over the Thursday
through Sunday period with perhaps locally higher amounts. Not
too concerned yet hydrology-wise but something to keep an eye
on as details become clearer. At a minimum we can expect some
elevated water levels and higher stream flows. Highs will only
be in the 50s over the weekend and probably into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2345z, a line of strong thunderstorms was currently crossing
the forecast area extending from near BGM north and east to
near KRME. Some showers still linger for KSYR/KITH/KELM but the
worst of the storms have now pushed east of these sites. Heading
through the next couple hours, expect IFR visbys with strong
wind gusts as these storms move through KRME/KBGM and later KAVP
by 02z. We have indicated wind gusts to 35 knots in the TAFs
but there is definitely the potential for stronger
gusts...potentially exceeding 50 knots if the strongest part of
the cells move over a TAF site.

The storms exit by late this evening and in their wake generally
expect low end VFR cigs through the remainder of the TAF period.
The exception will be KBGM where MVFR cigs may linger overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR but a
chance of showers and associated restrictions at times mostly in
NY.

Thursday through Friday...Restrictions likely with rain from
slow-moving low pressure system.

Saturday...restrictions possible in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...PCF/TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
845 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

NYZ046-057-062-PAZ040-048-072-030045-
Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
845 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

A line of severe thunderstorms continues to move through the area
west to east this evening with the main threat being damaging winds.
Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Some storms may also contain
heavy rainfall leading to potential localized urban and small stream
flooding. Storms will move out of the area by around midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ009-036-037-045-056-PAZ039-043-044-047-030045-
Northern Oneida-Madison-Southern Oneida-Chenango-Broome-Susquehanna-
Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
845 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 185 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

A line of severe thunderstorms continues to move through the area
west to east this evening with the main threat being damaging winds.
Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Some storms may also contain
heavy rainfall leading to potential localized urban and small stream
flooding. Storms will move out of the area by 11 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055-PAZ038-030045-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-
Tompkins-Cortland-Tioga-Bradford-
845 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions from today's storms according to Standard Operating
Procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
840 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     APALACHIN               42.07N  76.17W
05/01/2017                   TIOGA              NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES DOWN... HOUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE

&&

CJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
844 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LANESBORO               41.96N  75.58W
05/01/2017                   SUSQUEHANNA        PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN ON CAR WITH OCCUPANTS INSIDE. RADAR
            ESTIMATED TIME.

&&

MDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
854 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW MILFORD             41.88N  75.73W
05/01/2017                   SUSQUEHANNA        PA   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER POLE DOWN. TREE CATCHING FIRE. RADAR ESTIMATED
            TIME.

&&

MDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
856 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DELHI                   42.28N  74.91W
05/01/2017                   DELAWARE           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...POWER LINES DOWN

&&

CJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
902 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW BERLIN              42.62N  75.34W
05/01/2017                   CHENANGO           NY   FACEBOOK

            TREES DOWN ON SHACKTOWN MTN. ROAD

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
913 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORWICH                 42.53N  75.52W
05/01/2017                   CHENANGO           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALSO IN PRESTON... NEW BERLIN...
            OXFORD... GUILFORD 815 PM-830 PM.

&&

JML