Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
302 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold will push east across the Commonwealth this
afternoon into early tonight. The front will usher in brisk
west to northwest winds and cooler air for Tuesday. Fair weather
with milder temperatures will occur Wednesday under a weak
ridge of high pressure. A new storm system is likely to affect
the region from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Much colder
air is expected for late Friday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Tornado Watch #185 in effect until 10 PM...

Latest radar shows a line of moderate showers moving toward my
western zones. So far no lighting being observed but stability
is eroding as breaks begin developing in the cloudcover of the
warm sector that covers just about the entire CWA. Far eastern
areas are experiencing the last vestiges of the cool air damming
and marine layer that has kept cool- moist conditions in place.

Conditions are falling into place for a widespread outbreak of
potentially severe thunderstorms and even some isolated strong
tornadoes. RAP is depicting EHI's of 1-3 (anything greater than
1 is significant) already in place over Central Pa. Deep layer
shear is simultaneously a very impressive 50-70kt over most of
my CWA.

The main line of convection is starting to form over eastern
Ohio, and the HRRR tracks it east across the area between about
20-01Z. The main mode of convection looks to be linear with
bowing segments/QLCS storms, but the potential for rotation
within isolated elements will be very high. LCL's are marginal
but within the parameters that if a supercells begins to show
strong gate to gate shear, tornadogenesis will be very possible.

SPC has continued the ENHANCED risk over practically all of PA.

Forecast storm total rainfall amount by midnight tonight will
range from one-half of an inch, to one inch in some areas of
Ncent and NW PA.

Afternoon high temps should reach the mid/upr 70s...to near
80F in some of the Central and Southern Valleys. Anything
slightly warmer than this spells more significant severe
weather concerns, and could prompt SPC to raise the Day 1
outlook into the MDT category across portions of the state,
considering the existing llvl boundaries and highly anomalous
low-mid level shear.

A narrow north/south ribbon of +3-4 sigma PWAT air along and
just ahead of the cold front will support some locally heavy
downpours and storm total QPF by 04Z Tuesday up over one inch
in some spots. WPC highlights a small portion of my NERN zones
with a MARGINAL risk of heavy rain/flooding. It's still too soon
(with some uncertainties) to get into any type of flood watches
at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Expect significant convection to be ongoing/near to exiting the
extreme eastern CWA during the late evening hours tonight. Cold
front forcing the convection will move east through the state
overnight into Tuesday morning, advecting much chillier air into
the state.

Scattered to numerous rain showers may linger until 06Z before
weak post frontal ridging slides east over the region after
midnight accompanied by drier and cooler lvll air.

Lows early Tuesday will vary from the mid 40s across the NW
mtns, to the upper 50s in the SE.

GEFS axis of 2-3 sigma WSW 850 mb winds and the presence of
45-50 kt winds occupying the top of the well-mixed layer (at
around 4-5 kft agl Tuesday afternoon) will lead to sfc wind gusts
easily in the 30 to 35 kt range, and perhaps even 5-10 kts
higher.

High temps Tuesday afternoon will be in the L50s across the NW
mtns...L60s just to the SE of the I99/Rt 220 corridor, and upper
60s near and to the SE of I-81.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cyclonic flow will dominate the region through much of the long
term period with one upper trof exiting at the start of the
period and a second arriving late week. Early on, a gusty NW
wind and unsettled light showery weather will persisting mainly
for the northern part of the state right into Wednesday.

A chance for a more widespread/soaking (MDT to HVY) rain
arrives Thu afternoon into Fri, as the latest 00Z Operational
GFS/EC run and their EFSs are coming into decent/converging
agreement with an area of low pressure progged to develop along
the southern Appalachians and the lift north-northeastward.

Although this event shows some pretty strong signals (even at
this long time range) for a potential, widespread 1-2 inch
rainfall late in the upcoming week, A wide and varying array of
models solutions has been present prior to the latest model run
or two to throw some uncertainty into the mix w/respect to the
specific timing and amount of showers across the CWA.

Fri night and Saturday will turn windy and quite cool with
isolated rain showers falling across the central mtns, while
the Alleghenies experiences more numerous rain showers...likely
changing over to snow showers across most of the region. Cyclonic
flow will begin to wane early next week, with slowly improving
conditions, as the second upper trof lifts out.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Haze and low clouds are burning off early this afternoon over
the east. Two bands of SHRA are moving into and through central
areas attm. Showers continue over the NW airspace. Southerly
flow will get to the ground over the east as heating burns off
stratus. Gusts over 25kts at all sites this afternoon ahead of
the main line developing over eastern OH.

Line of severe thunderstorms entering western PA this afternoon
will arrive in our NW counties 19-20Z. This organized squall
line will move over JST and BFD 20-21Z. As it does, it probably
will be accompanied by increasing potential for 40-50KT surface
wind gusts. There is some question concerning the
intensity/timing into the eastern 1/2 of the airspace this
evening. Will update with AMDs to add severe-storm details via
TEMPO group as storms get closer. Frontal passage tonight will
shift winds more to the west/southwest allowing clearing
conditions between the upper trough/associated colder air and
the front itself. Above mentioned colder air aloft rotating
through the Great Lakes will bring sct showers into the NW
airspace by Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tue...Breezy with MVFR cigs/rain showers likely NW airspace.

Wed...Showers ending NW. MVFR cigs west becoming VFR. Decreasing
winds.

Thu-Sat...Widespread sub-VFR with periods of rain.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Head

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
214 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-021815-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
214 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-021815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
214 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 185 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
226 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

PAZ004-011930-
Warren PA-
226 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WARREN COUNTY FROM THE WEST
AROUND 3 PM EDT...

At 223 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms along a line
extending from Girard to near Cambridge Springs to Greenville.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph. At this speed, the storms should
reach western Warren County by 3 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7925 4163 7929 4163 7961 4200 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 227DEG 47KT 4199 8029 4179 8017 4132 8028

Dangelo