Alert archive / Ohio / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514

November 5, 201719 counties in Ohio; 14 counties in Pennsylvania; 5 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Nov 5, 2017, 5:28 PM EST for 19 counties in Ohio; 14 counties in Pennsylvania; 5 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 5, 2017, 5:28 PM EST (22:28 UTC)
Expired: Nov 5, 2017, 10:25 PM EST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 38 counties

Ashtabula County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Lake County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Portage County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA, Forest County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA, Washington County, PA, Brooke County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Wetzel County, WV

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 5%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

20 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 5, 6:02 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CLE	Portage, Stark, Summit	43 min
Nov 5, 6:05 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Carroll, Columbiana, Tuscarawas	55 min
Nov 5, 6:18 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CLE	Geauga	23 min
Nov 5, 6:22 PM EST	Flash Flood Warning	CLE	Erie	5 hr
Nov 5, 6:28 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CLE	Ashtabula, Trumbull	39 min
Nov 5, 6:31 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CLE	Erie	59 min
Nov 5, 6:40 PM EST	Tornado Warning	CLE	Erie	35 min
Nov 5, 6:42 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CLE	Mahoning	28 min
Nov 5, 6:46 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CLE	Crawford	59 min
Nov 5, 6:46 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Mercer	44 min
Nov 5, 6:55 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Columbiana, Jefferson	65 min
Nov 5, 7:17 PM EST	Tornado Warning	PBZ	Columbiana	28 min
Nov 5, 7:26 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Armstrong, Butler, Clarion, Forest, Mercer, Venango	64 min
Nov 5, 7:28 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CLE	Erie	32 min
Nov 5, 7:37 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Indiana, Jefferson	53 min
Nov 5, 7:57 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland	34 min
Nov 5, 8:13 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Armstrong, Clarion, Forest, Indiana, Jefferson	47 min
Nov 5, 8:25 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Allegheny, Armstrong, Butler, Indiana	38 min
Nov 5, 8:28 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson and 1 more	62 min
Nov 5, 8:30 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Belmont, Guernsey, Monroe, Muskingum, Noble	46 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 58 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -82 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 491 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 233 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 251 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 5, 11:29 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Defiance, Erie, Fulton, Geauga and 14 more	91 min
Nov 5, 12:08 PM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Allen, Ashland, Auglaize, Butler, Champaign, Clark and 35 more	7 hr
Nov 5, 2:29 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Auglaize, Mercer	31 min
Nov 5, 3:57 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Ashland, Auglaize, Crawford, Hancock, Hardin and 9 more	63 min
Nov 5, 4:51 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carroll, Columbiana, Geauga, Mahoning, Portage, Stark and 2 more	114 min
Nov 5, 5:58 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Butler, Champaign, Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Darke and 18 more	62 min
Nov 5, 6:31 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brown, Butler, Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Delaware and 13 more	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Ohio, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.