Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510

November 3, 201713 counties in Arkansas; 8 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Nov 3, 2017, 3:49 PM CDT for 13 counties in Arkansas; 8 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 3, 2017, 3:49 PM CDT (20:49 UTC)
Expired
Nov 3, 2017, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 21 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Grant County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Bolivar County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Washington County, MS

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

12 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 3, 4:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Jefferson36 min
Nov 3, 4:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANChicot42 min
Nov 3, 4:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun35 min
Nov 3, 5:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Jefferson50 min
Nov 3, 5:29 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGLee, Phillips31 min
Nov 3, 5:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANBolivar, Sunflower41 min
Nov 3, 5:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCoahoma47 min
Nov 3, 5:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha56 min
Nov 3, 5:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGPhillips51 min
Nov 3, 5:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANWashington27 min
Nov 3, 6:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGPhillips27 min
Nov 3, 7:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANWashington33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2017-11-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1840 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2017-11-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -67 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1840 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
478 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-67 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 3, 2:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland, Dallas and 11 more2 hr
Nov 3, 5:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 7 more114 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2017Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Mississippi, 2017Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.