Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
309 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
As of 20Z, a quasi-cold front was oriented NW to SE from near
Fayetteville to Little Rock to Stuttgart. North of this boundary,
low clouds persist with temperatures in the 50s and 60s F and
predominantly easterly surface winds. South of this boundary, a
moisture-rich air mass is in place characterized by dew points in
the upper 60s and low 70s F with air temperatures in the upper 70s
and low 80s F.

Water vapor imagery continues to show the eastward progression of
a compact shortwave trough aloft. Large-scale ascent present near
and downstream of this feature, sufficient instability...MUCAPE
values in excess of 1000 J/kg...and modest deep layer shear on the
order of 35 kts supporting continued thunderstorm development
across portions of central and eastern AR. A pocket of colder air
continues pushing in from the west coincident with the shortwave
trough, so there is some potential for severe hail with the more
robust updrafts. That said, marginal kinematic fields near the
surface and aloft may limit the overall hail threat, although some
storms have exhibited mid-level rotation this afternoon. DCAPE
values exceeding 1000 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates
better support a damaging wind threat through evening,
particularly if convection exhibits upscale growth as hi-res
models have consistently hinted at through the day. Expecting
convection to gradually push east of the area late tonight with
some patchy fog developing during the early morning hours.

By Saturday, the front lifts back to the north and becomes quasi-
stationary again with gradually warming temps area wide. Zonal
flow aloft will persist so any embedded transient waves could
generate isolated convection, but current thinking is we stay
mostly dry through Sunday. Another surface trough and front
approach from the north by the end of the period.

Used blended guidance to initialize most weather elements.
Significant manual tweaking of temp and PoP grids necessary,
however, as hi-res models have struggled to match observed trends
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Thursday
The period will start off mild Sunday night/Monday, with a ridge of
high pressure along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be poised just
to the north.

The ridge will flatten on Tuesday, with the front pushing through
Arkansas. The front will be accompanied by isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, followed by much cooler air.

Behind the front, a large system aloft will cross the middle of the
country on Wednesday, and will bring good chances of showers.

Rainfall through Wednesday does not look impressive. Some places may
get half inch to inch amounts, with less precipitation at most
locations.

Strong Canadian high pressure will build over the state from the
Plains to end the period. It will be dry Thursday/Friday, with
continued seasonal temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  75  65  79 /  20  10  10  10
Camden AR         65  81  67  83 /  30  10   0  10
Harrison AR       55  74  64  80 /  20  10  10  20
Hot Springs AR    62  78  67  80 /  20  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  62  79  67  83 /  20  10   0  10
Monticello AR     66  81  67  84 /  50  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      60  77  66  80 /  10  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  56  75  64  80 /  20  10  10  20
Newport AR        59  77  65  80 /  20  10   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     64  80  66  84 /  50  10   0  10
Russellville AR   59  77  66  81 /  10  10  10  10
Searcy AR         59  77  65  81 /  20  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      63  79  66  82 /  40  10   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...COOPER / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1221 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041730-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1221 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening, mainly across southern and southeastern Arkansas.
Some of these storms may become severe with wind and hail being
primary threats. Storms should move out of the area late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the upcoming
weekend and work week, although the probability of widespread
hazardous weather appears low at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and part of
tonight, especially in southeastern Arkansas.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Cooper/46

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