Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39

February 25, 20174 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Feb 25, 2017, 1:30 PM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 25, 2017, 1:30 PM EST (18:30 UTC)
Expired
Feb 25, 2017, 7:00 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 115 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, York County, PA, Accomack County, VA, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, Nelson County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

49 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 25, 1:33 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Culpeper, Greene, Madison, Orange, Spotsylvania42 min
Feb 25, 1:48 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQAmelia, Chesterfield, Goochland, Nottoway, Powhatan, Prince Edward42 min
Feb 25, 2:02 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Orange, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford43 min
Feb 25, 2:05 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster, York40 min
Feb 25, 2:07 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick38 min
Feb 25, 2:12 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Montgomery10 min
Feb 25, 2:18 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQLunenburg, Nottoway, Prince Edward42 min
Feb 25, 2:20 PM ESTTornado WarningCTPLancaster, York25 min
Feb 25, 2:27 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCharles48 min
Feb 25, 2:28 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQAmelia, Chesterfield, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Powhatan and 1 more47 min
Feb 25, 2:32 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLebanon, Schuylkill88 min
Feb 25, 2:35 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCharles, Prince George's40 min
Feb 25, 2:37 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, York68 min
Feb 25, 2:39 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll29 min
Feb 25, 2:43 PM ESTTornado WarningCTPLancaster, Lebanon47 min
Feb 25, 2:47 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks43 min
Feb 25, 2:50 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCaroline, Essex, Hanover40 min
Feb 25, 2:51 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQAmelia, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Nottoway39 min
Feb 25, 2:52 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's38 min
Feb 25, 3:03 PM ESTTornado WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Prince George's27 min
Feb 25, 3:08 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster67 min
Feb 25, 3:13 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQEssex, Hanover, Henrico, King and Queen, King William, Richmond and 1 more47 min
Feb 25, 3:16 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQAmelia, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Prince George, City of Colonial Heights, City of Hopewell44 min
Feb 25, 3:18 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICaroline, Queen Anne's, Talbot57 min
Feb 25, 3:19 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton41 min
Feb 25, 3:24 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford24 min
Feb 25, 3:26 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICecil64 min
Feb 25, 3:27 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCaroline, Essex, Richmond, Westmoreland33 min
Feb 25, 3:29 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Prince George's35 min
Feb 25, 3:39 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCalvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's26 min
Feb 25, 3:42 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCharles City, Chesterfield, Henrico, New Kent, Prince George, City of Colonial Heights and 1 more48 min
Feb 25, 3:43 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQBrunswick, Mecklenburg36 min
Feb 25, 3:53 PM ESTTornado WarningAKQCharles City, Chesterfield, Henrico, New Kent, City of Hopewell19 min
Feb 25, 3:57 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQRichmond, Westmoreland18 min
Feb 25, 4:00 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXSaint Mary's45 min
Feb 25, 4:04 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, New Castle41 min
Feb 25, 4:08 PM ESTTornado WarningAKQWestmoreland22 min
Feb 25, 4:11 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent49 min
Feb 25, 4:14 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCharles City, Gloucester, James City, King and Queen, King William, Middlesex and 1 more46 min
Feb 25, 4:15 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQDorchester13 min
Feb 25, 4:17 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Monroe and 3 more43 min
Feb 25, 4:39 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQDorchester, Wicomico51 min
Feb 25, 4:40 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, New Castle50 min
Feb 25, 4:42 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQGloucester, King and Queen, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex38 min
Feb 25, 4:50 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, Sussex55 min
Feb 25, 5:17 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBucks, Montgomery, Philadelphia43 min
Feb 25, 5:23 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQAccomack, Northampton67 min
Feb 25, 5:45 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQIsle of Wight, York, City of Hampton, City of Newport News, City of Poquoson30 min
Feb 25, 6:11 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQNorthampton37 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 29 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2017-02-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 235 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2017-02-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 164 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
235 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-194 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
676 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
164 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

732 
WWUS20 KWNS 251827
SEL9  
SPC WW 251827
DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-260100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 39
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Delaware
  Maryland
  Southern New Jersey
  Southeast Pennsylvania
  Central and Eastern Virginia
  Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
  800 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a cold front over
central VA.  These storms will track across the watch area this
afternoon, posing a threat of locally damaging winds and hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Wilmington DE to 10 miles south of South Hill VA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 25, 12:16 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNew Castle89 min
Feb 25, 12:24 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, Sussex2 hr
Feb 25, 4:26 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex94 min
Feb 24, 8:49 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Crawford, Lawrence, Mercer, Washington116 min
Feb 25, 2:46 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBucks, Carbon, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Luzerne, Monroe and 3 more5 hr
Feb 25, 4:44 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBerks, Bucks, Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Montgomery and 3 more91 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2017Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2017Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2017Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.