Alert archive / Louisiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 906

May 28, 201715 parishes in Louisiana; 7 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2017, 5:01 PM CDT for 15 parishes in Louisiana; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 28, 2017, 5:01 PM CDT (22:01 UTC)
Expired
May 28, 2017, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 22 counties

Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Shelby County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 35 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2017-05-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2017-05-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -304 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1753 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-304 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

294 
ACUS11 KWNS 282201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282201 
LAZ000-TXZ000-282300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 282201Z - 282300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will spread across northeast TX into
northern LA this evening.  Scattered storms will likely attain
severe levels with damaging winds and large hail the expected
threats.

DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of strong boundary-layer heating has
contributed to an axis of strong instability across east TX into
extreme western LA.  Surface-3km lapse rates are now on the order of
7 C/km reflective of afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s.  Over
the last hour or so an upward evolving complex of storms has slowly
matured over northeast TX.  This activity should spread/develop
eastward along an ill-defined outflow boundary draped across
northern LA.  Damaging winds and large hail can be expected with
this convection.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 05/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32939482 32999221 32679143 31879191 31579505 32939482

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 28, 2:53 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBossier, Caddo, Claiborne, Lincoln, Union, Webster2 hr
May 28, 10:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, Calcasieu, Cameron, Iberia, Iberville and 15 more2 hr
May 28, 5:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto and 11 more4 hr
May 27, 7:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDallam, Hansford, Hartley, Ochiltree, Sherman2 hr
May 27, 9:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb, Ochiltree, Roberts and 1 more53 min
May 27, 11:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cooke, Fannin, Grayson, Lamar, Montague and 1 more58 min
May 28, 12:06 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBowie, Collin, Cooke, Denton, Fannin, Grayson and 4 more5 hr
May 28, 4:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Delta, Denton and 7 more2 hr
May 28, 1:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell and 18 more56 min
May 28, 3:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bell and 58 more8 hr
May 28, 6:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco and 40 more57 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.