Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 730
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2017, 1:19 PM CDT for 8 counties in Oklahoma; 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2017, 1:19 PM CDT (18:19 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2017, 2:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 21 counties
Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 837 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -240 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1292 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
647
ACUS11 KWNS 161819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161819
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-161915-
Mesoscale Discussion 0730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Areas affected...eastern tx/ok panhandle...western ok
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 161819Z - 161915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop across the eastern TX/OK
Panhandles over the next few hours. Tornadoes are expected with
this activity, along with very large hail and severe wind gusts.
Tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery suggests large-scale
forcing for ascent is spreading across the southern Rockies, per
marked increase in showers and thunderstorms over western/central
NM. Downstream, dry line has mixed east and is becoming well
defined over the TX Panhandle/South Plains region with substantial
boundary-layer cu immediately east of the dry line. Towering cu,
and a few attempts at glaciation, are noted over
Hutchinson/Hansford/Ochiltree Counties. There is increasing
confidence supercells will develop across the eastern TX/OK
Panhandles by mid afternoon with subsequent movement expected into
western portions of OK/southwest KS into the evening. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for tornadoes and very large hail as
steep lapse rates are evident on 12z soundings and surface dew
points have now risen into the mid 60s. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for a few strong tornadoes.
..Darrow/Hart.. 05/16/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34400122 35680143 37270015 37069899 35189945 34189949
34400122SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 1:54 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Custer, Dewey and 12 more | 8 hr |
| May 16, 3:36 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Harper and 2 more | 54 min |
| May 16, 4:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collingsworth, Wheeler | 64 min |
| May 16, 5:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Coke, Crockett, Fisher, Garza, Glasscock and 14 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.