Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 673
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 9, 2017, 5:24 PM MDT for 12 counties in Colorado; 12 counties in Kansas; 9 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 9, 2017, 5:24 PM MDT (23:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 9, 2017, 6:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 33 counties
Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Colfax County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, Mora County, NM, Rio Arriba County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 280 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 780 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -22 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
390
ACUS11 KWNS 092325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092324
KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-100030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0673
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017
Areas affected...Portions of central/northern NM...southern/eastern
CO...and western KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199...
Valid 092324Z - 100030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly large hail and damaging
winds continues across eastern portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
199, which expires at 00Z. A local extension in time may be
warranted for a couple counties in north-central NM. In addition, a
new Severe Thunderstorm Watch in parts of eastern CO into western KS
is being considered.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection west of the central mountain chain
in NM will likely weaken over the next several hours with the loss
of daytime heating and resultant lessening of already weak
instability. Other ongoing thunderstorms in eastern Colfax and Mora
counties should move toward/into Tornado Watch 200 around 00Z.
Across eastern CO and arcing northeastward into southern NE, a
pronounced baroclinic zone is present per 23Z observations, and
ongoing convection across eastern CO posing an isolated threat for
mainly large hail should persist past the 00Z expiration of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 199 as it moves into western KS. The airmass
downstream of this activity should remain unstable through the
evening hours, as MLCAPE generally ranges from 500-1500 J/kg per
recent RAP mesoanalysis. The northern extent of a strengthening
low-level jet across the southern/central Plains may also encourage
the maintenance of ongoing thunderstorms, and 35-45 kt of effective
bulk shear will support updraft organization. There will be some
potential for upscale growth of thunderstorms in northeastern NM as
they move into southeastern CO and perhaps western KS over the next
few hours. If this were to occur, then damaging winds would be a
concern in addition to large hail. Therefore, a new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is being considered for parts of eastern CO and
western KS.
..Gleason.. 05/09/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34290629 36290726 36710718 37000635 38450484 38600333
39530247 39900202 39930102 39540067 38720065 38070088
37340155 37040212 37070405 35790444 34300536 34290629SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 6:18 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley and 17 more | 87 min |
| May 9, 9:55 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Las Animas | 3 hr |
| May 9, 11:15 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bent, Costilla, Crowley, Huerfano, Las Animas, Otero and 1 more | 9 hr |
| May 9, 2:29 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Kiowa, Las Animas and 4 more | 91 min |
| May 9, 5:51 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Prowers and 1 more | 7 hr |
| May 8, 6:30 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 10 more | 2 hr |
| May 8, 10:26 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 9 more | 64 min |
| May 9, 1:16 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 5 more | 119 min |
| May 9, 2:23 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more | 8 hr |
| May 9, 5:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding, Lea and 2 more | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.