Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 673

May 9, 201712 counties in Colorado; 12 counties in Kansas; 9 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 9, 2017, 5:24 PM MDT for 12 counties in Colorado; 12 counties in Kansas; 9 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 66 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 9, 2017, 5:24 PM MDT (23:24 UTC)
Expired
May 9, 2017, 6:30 PM MDT
In force
66 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 33 counties

Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Colfax County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, Mora County, NM, Rio Arriba County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 280 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2017-05-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2017-05-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
780 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-22 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

390 
ACUS11 KWNS 092325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092324 
KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-100030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0673
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/northern NM...southern/eastern
CO...and western KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199...

Valid 092324Z - 100030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly large hail and damaging
winds continues across eastern portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
199, which expires at 00Z. A local extension in time may be
warranted for a couple counties in north-central NM. In addition, a
new Severe Thunderstorm Watch in parts of eastern CO into western KS
is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection west of the central mountain chain
in NM will likely weaken over the next several hours with the loss
of daytime heating and resultant lessening of already weak
instability. Other ongoing thunderstorms in eastern Colfax and Mora
counties should move toward/into Tornado Watch 200 around 00Z.
Across eastern CO and arcing northeastward into southern NE, a
pronounced baroclinic zone is present per 23Z observations, and
ongoing convection across eastern CO posing an isolated threat for
mainly large hail should persist past the 00Z expiration of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 199 as it moves into western KS. The airmass
downstream of this activity should remain unstable through the
evening hours, as MLCAPE generally ranges from 500-1500 J/kg per
recent RAP mesoanalysis. The northern extent of a strengthening
low-level jet across the southern/central Plains may also encourage
the maintenance of ongoing thunderstorms, and 35-45 kt of effective
bulk shear will support updraft organization. There will be some
potential for upscale growth of thunderstorms in northeastern NM as
they move into southeastern CO and perhaps western KS over the next
few hours. If this were to occur, then damaging winds would be a
concern in addition to large hail. Therefore, a new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is being considered for parts of eastern CO and
western KS.

..Gleason.. 05/09/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34290629 36290726 36710718 37000635 38450484 38600333
            39530247 39900202 39930102 39540067 38720065 38070088
            37340155 37040212 37070405 35790444 34300536 34290629

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 8, 6:18 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley and 17 more87 min
May 9, 9:55 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLas Animas3 hr
May 9, 11:15 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBent, Costilla, Crowley, Huerfano, Las Animas, Otero and 1 more9 hr
May 9, 2:29 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Kiowa, Las Animas and 4 more91 min
May 9, 5:51 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaca, Bent, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Prowers and 1 more7 hr
May 8, 6:30 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 10 more2 hr
May 8, 10:26 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 9 more64 min
May 9, 1:16 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 5 more119 min
May 9, 2:23 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCChaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more8 hr
May 9, 5:12 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding, Lea and 2 more93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.