Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 596

April 29, 201726 counties in Illinois; 9 counties in Indiana; Perry County, Sainte Genevieve County, Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 29, 2017, 3:28 PM CDT for 26 counties in Illinois; 9 counties in Indiana; Perry County, Sainte Genevieve County, Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 29, 2017, 3:28 PM CDT (20:28 UTC)
Expired
Apr 29, 2017, 5:30 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 37 counties

Bond County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Perry County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Saline County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Daviess County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Greene County, IN, Knox County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Perry County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2017-04-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2017-04-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 242 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
776 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
242 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
568 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

856 
ACUS11 KWNS 292028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292028 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-292230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Areas affected...southeast Missouri through southern Illinois and
southwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 292028Z - 292230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will pose some threat for isolated damaging wind as
they continue through eastern Missouri, southern Illinois and
southwest Indiana into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Line of storms continues from near St. Louis through
northwest AR. The northern portion of the line is moving more
rapidly at around 40 kt, is the most organized, and appears to be
forced by the circulation accompanying a progressive MCV. A warm
front continues to lift north through the OH valley downstream from
the line with dewpoints rising to around 70 F and temperatures in
the 80s in warm sector. Storms may continue to pose a risk for
damaging wind as they interact with destabilizing boundary layer
next few hours and where eastern branch of the low level jet will
continue to support strong convergence and moist and unstable
inflow. A limiting factor has been tendency for upper ridge to build
which has resulted in weaker flow above 500 mb.

..Dial/Weiss.. 04/29/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37599032 38309009 39128992 39198848 39168691 38048696
            37478858 37599032

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 28, 10:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson and 7 more9 hr
Apr 28, 11:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Hardin, Jackson, Johnson and 6 more95 min
Apr 29, 3:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson and 8 more96 min
Apr 29, 12:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMonroe, Randolph, Saint Clair85 min
Apr 29, 3:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Bond, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 38 more6 hr
Apr 29, 6:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Clark, Clay, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland and 25 more60 min
Apr 28, 7:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBartholomew, Brown, Dearborn, Decatur, Fayette, Franklin and 8 more6 hr
Apr 28, 8:27 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Gibson, Harrison and 10 more5 hr
Apr 28, 10:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Crawford, Daviess, Dearborn, Dubois, Floyd and 18 more116 min
Apr 29, 12:50 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Gibson, Harrison and 11 more85 min
Apr 29, 6:23 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Dearborn, Floyd, Harrison, Jackson, Jefferson and 6 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.