Mesoscale Discussion 565

Issued

Apr 26, 2017, 6:10 PM CDT (23:10 UTC)

Expired

Apr 26, 2017, 7:45 PM CDT

In force

95 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

40%

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

643 
ACUS11 KWNS 262311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262310 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-270045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Areas affected...far southeast MO...extreme southeast IL...extreme
southwest IND...western KY...and northwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 262310Z - 270045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch
issuance, mainly across parts of western KY. Hail and strong winds
will be the main threat if current bowing segment tracking northeast
across northeast AR/northwest TN maintains current intensity.

DISCUSSION...A bowing segment over far northeast AR /located in WW
166/ is quickly tracking to the east/northeast at around 60 mph and
will soon impact parts of far southeast MO and northwest TN. Severe
hail and strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts are possible with
this bowing segment. Within the next hour or so, the current track
brings this segment into far western KY. With eastward extent,
moisture begins to lessen, with dewpoints mainly in the mid to upper
50s noted in 23z observations. As a result, instability is quickly
diminishing and inhibition increases. It is possible that at least a
marginal threat of severe hail and strong winds may extend into
portions of western KY before this segment weakens below severe
limits. As such, a watch may be needed in the next hour across parts
of western KY and perhaps far southwest IND.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/26/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36349015 37528858 38148727 38078677 37698648 37148648
            36808663 36378740 35848907 35708984 35749019 35999035
            36349015

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.