Mesoscale Discussion 53

Issued

Jan 15, 2017, 1:59 PM CST (19:59 UTC)

Expired

Jan 15, 2017, 7:00 PM CST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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913 
ACUS11 KWNS 152000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151959 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Areas affected...OK panhandle...western/north-central
KS...south-central/southeast NE...far northwest MO...extreme
southwest IA

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 151959Z - 160100Z

SUMMARY...A large area of freezing rain is expected to persist
through the afternoon and into the evening. Freezing rain rates from
0.02 to 0.05 inch an hour are possible.

DISCUSSION...Large area of light to moderate precipitation
associated with warm conveyor of the negatively-titled upper low
centered near El Paso will continue to expand
northward/northeastward over the next several hours. As a result,
the area of freezing rain across northeast KS will move into far
southeast NE during the next hour or two. Surface observation at CNK
in northeast KS reported 0.05 inches of freezing rain and 0.04
inches of ice accretion in the past hour, with these rain rates
expected to continue as the area moves into southeast NE. Another
area of precipitation across southwestern KS is expected to move
northward/northeastward into more of west-central KS. Freezing rain
rates have been lighter here than areas northeastward (generally
around 0.02 inches per hour) but prolonged nature of the event has
lead to significant ice accretion. The 18Z observations at RSL and
GCK reported 0.18 and 0.13 inches of ice accretion, respectively,
over the past 6 hours.  

Convectively enhanced area of precipitation across northeast NM and
the western TX panhandle is expected to gradually move
northward/northeastward within the warm conveyor, taking it into the
central/eastern OK panhandle and southwestern KS around 23-00Z.
Surface temperatures are expected to remain at or just below
freezing with overall thermal profiles remaining supportive of
freezing rain.

..Mosier.. 01/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   37770183 39210116 40249979 40939817 41069712 41039565
            40699459 39639464 39499579 38819759 37279943 36560026
            36630173 37770183

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.