Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 48
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 15, 2017, 1:55 AM CST for 30 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 15, 2017, 1:55 AM CST (07:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 15, 2017, 8:00 AM CST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 30 counties
Barton County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Finney County, KS, Geary County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Lane County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Ness County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Trego County, KS
The radar
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 552 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 187 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 165 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
734
ACUS11 KWNS 150756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150755
KSZ000-151400-
Mesoscale Discussion 0048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017
Areas affected...west-central KS eastward into parts of central and
north-central KS
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 150755Z - 151400Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates exceeding 0.05 inch per 3 hours are
forecast to gradually develop northward through the discussion area
during the 08 UTC - 14 UTC period. The heaviest 3-hourly rates
(0.10-0.20 inch) will likely be confined to south of I-70 and begin
to occur generally after 10 UTC.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates a northward advancing shield of
moderate precipitation ---surface observations confirm hourly
freezing rain rates 0.05-0.20 inch--- moving across the northeastern
TX and OK Panhandles and eastward along the OK/KS border as of 0755
UTC. The precipitation is occurring atop a shallow sub-freezing
near-surface layer ---reference the 00 UTC DDC raob--- and is in
response to increased forcing for ascent via low-level
warm-air-advection and moisture flux processes and related to the
approaching mid-level low/trough located over northwestern Mexico
and the Desert Southwest.
Short-term models suggest precipitation will expand northward into
the discussion area tonight into the early morning. The locally
heavier rates will be associated with convective showers south of
I-70 with lighter freezing rain amounts associated within the
peripheral areas of the rain shield. Forecast soundings show the
shallow cold wedge being maintained through 14 UTC and supportive of
a freezing-rain precipitation type.
..Smith.. 01/15/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39629667 39069624 38359643 37910063 38210107 38790110
39290082 39839754 39629667SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 9:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Ford, Harper, Kingman and 3 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 15, 2:02 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Coffey, Douglas, Franklin and 10 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 15, 9:02 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Decatur, Dickinson and 28 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 15, 9:43 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 28 more | 4 hr |
| Jan 15, 1:59 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Brown, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan and 45 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.