Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 48

January 15, 201730 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 15, 2017, 1:55 AM CST for 30 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 15, 2017, 1:55 AM CST (07:55 UTC)
Expired
Jan 15, 2017, 8:00 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 30 counties

Barton County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Finney County, KS, Geary County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Lane County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Ness County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Trego County, KS

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2017-01-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2017-01-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 187 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
552 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
187 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
165 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

734 
ACUS11 KWNS 150756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150755 
KSZ000-151400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Areas affected...west-central KS eastward into parts of central and
north-central KS

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 150755Z - 151400Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates exceeding 0.05 inch per 3 hours are
forecast to gradually develop northward through the discussion area
during the 08 UTC - 14 UTC period.  The heaviest 3-hourly rates
(0.10-0.20 inch) will likely be confined to south of I-70 and begin
to occur generally after 10 UTC.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates a northward advancing shield of
moderate precipitation ---surface observations confirm hourly
freezing rain rates 0.05-0.20 inch--- moving across the northeastern
TX and OK Panhandles and eastward along the OK/KS border as of 0755
UTC.  The precipitation is occurring atop a shallow sub-freezing
near-surface layer ---reference the 00 UTC DDC raob--- and is in
response to increased forcing for ascent via low-level
warm-air-advection and moisture flux processes and related to the
approaching mid-level low/trough located over northwestern Mexico
and the Desert Southwest. 

Short-term models suggest precipitation will expand northward into
the discussion area tonight into the early morning.  The locally
heavier rates will be associated with convective showers south of
I-70 with lighter freezing rain amounts associated within the
peripheral areas of the rain shield.  Forecast soundings show the
shallow cold wedge being maintained through 14 UTC and supportive of
a freezing-rain precipitation type.

..Smith.. 01/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39629667 39069624 38359643 37910063 38210107 38790110
            39290082 39839754 39629667

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 14, 9:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Ford, Harper, Kingman and 3 more6 hr
Jan 15, 2:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Coffey, Douglas, Franklin and 10 more5 hr
Jan 15, 9:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Decatur, Dickinson and 28 more5 hr
Jan 15, 9:43 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 28 more4 hr
Jan 15, 1:59 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Brown, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan and 45 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.