Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 49

January 15, 201716 counties in Kansas; 34 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 15, 2017, 2:02 AM CST for 16 counties in Kansas; 34 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 15, 2017, 2:02 AM CST (08:02 UTC)
Expired
Jan 15, 2017, 7:00 AM CST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 50 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Miami County, KS, Osage County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cass County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 174 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2017-01-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 14 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2017-01-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 125 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
14 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
338 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
125 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
130 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

024 
ACUS11 KWNS 150803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150802 
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-151300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Areas affected...Eastern KS...I-70 corridor of MO

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 150802Z - 151300Z

SUMMARY...Some expansion in the coverage and intensity of freezing
rain is possible overnight, with hourly rates of 0.03 - 0.05
inches/hour possible.

DISCUSSION...At 0745 UTC, a precipitation shield was slowly
expanding northeastward into portions of east-central Kansas and the
I-70 corridor of Missouri that remain below freezing. While the
strongest warm advection is focused further to the west over
central/western KS, ascent associated with a departing upper-level
jet streak over the Great Lakes should help to maintain light
precipitation across the MCD area through 12-13Z. Even with
relatively modest ascent, PW values approaching 1 inch will support
precipitation rates of around 0.03 - 0.05 inches per hour. 

The 0-degree C temperature and wet bulb contours have moved very
little over the past several hours, and only a very slow northward
movement is expected before sunrise, given the lack of a stronger
warm advection regime. Ice accretion may be somewhat less efficient
over the southern portion of the MCD area, where temps are in the
30-32F range, while wet-bulb cooling will support temperatures in
the upper 20s and more efficient accretion across the northern
portion of the area.

..Dean.. 01/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39239599 39289480 39249236 39089080 38699024 38269024
            37969069 37889140 37839310 37749444 37709516 37609599
            38369634 39239599

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 14, 9:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Ford, Harper, Kingman and 3 more6 hr
Jan 15, 1:55 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 24 more6 hr
Jan 15, 9:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Decatur, Dickinson and 28 more5 hr
Jan 15, 9:43 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 28 more4 hr
Jan 15, 1:59 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Brown, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan and 45 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.