Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 49
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 15, 2017, 2:02 AM CST for 16 counties in Kansas; 34 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 15, 2017, 2:02 AM CST (08:02 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 15, 2017, 7:00 AM CST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 50 counties
Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Miami County, KS, Osage County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cass County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 174 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 14 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 338 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 125 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 130 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
024
ACUS11 KWNS 150803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150802
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-151300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017
Areas affected...Eastern KS...I-70 corridor of MO
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 150802Z - 151300Z
SUMMARY...Some expansion in the coverage and intensity of freezing
rain is possible overnight, with hourly rates of 0.03 - 0.05
inches/hour possible.
DISCUSSION...At 0745 UTC, a precipitation shield was slowly
expanding northeastward into portions of east-central Kansas and the
I-70 corridor of Missouri that remain below freezing. While the
strongest warm advection is focused further to the west over
central/western KS, ascent associated with a departing upper-level
jet streak over the Great Lakes should help to maintain light
precipitation across the MCD area through 12-13Z. Even with
relatively modest ascent, PW values approaching 1 inch will support
precipitation rates of around 0.03 - 0.05 inches per hour.
The 0-degree C temperature and wet bulb contours have moved very
little over the past several hours, and only a very slow northward
movement is expected before sunrise, given the lack of a stronger
warm advection regime. Ice accretion may be somewhat less efficient
over the southern portion of the MCD area, where temps are in the
30-32F range, while wet-bulb cooling will support temperatures in
the upper 20s and more efficient accretion across the northern
portion of the area.
..Dean.. 01/15/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39239599 39289480 39249236 39089080 38699024 38269024
37969069 37889140 37839310 37749444 37709516 37609599
38369634 39239599SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 9:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Ford, Harper, Kingman and 3 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 15, 1:55 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 24 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 15, 9:02 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Decatur, Dickinson and 28 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 15, 9:43 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 28 more | 4 hr |
| Jan 15, 1:59 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Brown, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan and 45 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.