Mesoscale Discussion 5

Issued

Jan 2, 2017, 3:36 AM CST (09:36 UTC)

Expired

Jan 2, 2017, 4:30 AM CST

In force

54 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

263 
ACUS11 KWNS 020937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020936 
TXZ000-021030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017

Areas affected...Parts of central and east TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1...

Valid 020936Z - 021030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...While thunderstorms have been generally sub-severe so far,
there should be an increasing severe threat as they move eastward
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have shown convection
along and behind a cold front across central TX generally remaining
sub-severe. This is primarily due to the strongest cores lagging the
surface front (evident as a radar fine line) and being slightly
elevated. One exception to this is a bowing segment moving across
Erath and Hamilton counties in central TX as of 0935Z. This line
segment will remain capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds (recently reported up to 70 mph in Hamilton, TX) over the next
hour. An increasingly moist and unstable environment downstream of
the front (into east TX) remains favorable for intensification of
ongoing thunderstorms, and additional development along the front
itself. All severe hazards will be possible, although damaging winds
should tend to become the primary threat with time as convection
likely consolidates into a line.

..Gleason.. 01/02/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30159928 30919838 32019832 33599776 33529547 32989572
            31789551 30579541 29639682 29609763 30159928

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.