Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 2
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2017, 10:11 PM CST for 41 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 1, 2017, 10:11 PM CST (04:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 2, 2017, 12:45 AM CST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 41 counties
Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Erath County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mills County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1528 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 98 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 160 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
337
ACUS11 KWNS 020412
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020411
TXZ000-020645-
Mesoscale Discussion 0002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CST Sun Jan 01 2017
Areas affected...Much of Central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 020411Z - 020645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
later tonight, with damaging winds and hail expected. A watch may be
needed prior to 06Z.
DISCUSSION...A rapidly moving cold front continues to move eastward
across West TX, with several wind gusts in excess of 40-50 kts
measured and only sporadic lightning. This front will gradually
interact with an increasingly unstable air mass, still well to the
east as of 04Z. However, increasing flow in the low levels just
above the surface will help transport mid to upper 50s dewpoints
northward out of South TX, with a rapid uptick in storms along the
front expected as MUCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg develops. This in turn
should allow for a line of storms along the front, with both wind
and hail possible.
..Jewell/Hart.. 01/02/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30219873 29730024 30030135 30720124 31520065 32510009
33659960 33849866 33629781 33029711 32099731 30219873SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 1:04 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar and 71 more | 86 min |
| Jan 2, 1:39 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque and 67 more | 59 days |
| Jan 2, 2:06 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jasper, Newton, Orange, Sabine, San Augustine, Shelby and 1 more | 114 min |
| Jan 2, 3:36 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brazos and 44 more | 54 min |
| Jan 2, 5:35 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Camp and 56 more | 85 min |
| Jan 2, 6:12 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Angelina, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin and 21 more | 10 hr |
| Jan 2, 7:48 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Chambers, Cherokee and 25 more | 57 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.