Mesoscale Discussion 3

Issued

Jan 2, 2017, 1:04 AM CST (07:04 UTC)

Expired

Jan 2, 2017, 2:30 AM CST

In force

86 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

80%

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1Jan 2, 1:35 AM CST

242 
ACUS11 KWNS 020705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020704 
TXZ000-020830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2017

Areas affected...Parts of central and east TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 020704Z - 020830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds should
continue to increase over the next hour or two, and severe
thunderstorm watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...As an upper trough over the southern High Plains ejects
eastward, an increase in convection has been noted over the past
several hours along and just behind a Pacific cold front. These
thunderstorms will encounter an increasingly moist and unstable
airmass as they continue move eastward into parts of central and
east TX overnight. Better Low-level moisture characterized by
surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s is present along and east of
the I-35 corridor in TX. Strong mid-level flow around 40-50 kt
associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will be more than
sufficient to support supercell structures with the initial
activity. The linear nature of the front suggests that convection
will likely consolidate into a line with time, and this scenario is
well-supported by various convection-allowing model guidance.
Therefore, damaging winds should become the main threat as the line
of storms approaches the I-35 corridor. With low-level flow forecast
to increase through the early morning hours across the Mesoscale
Discussion area, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out either with
the line, or with any discrete development within the open warm
sector ahead of the line. Due to the overall severe threat expected
to increase over the next hour or two, a severe thunderstorm watch
will likely be issued.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 01/02/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29569932 30280035 30940024 32639953 33209905 33439794
            33629681 33629568 32859548 30599559 29499658 29249824
            29569932

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.