Mesoscale Discussion 1019

Issued

Jun 13, 2017, 6:30 PM CDT (23:30 UTC)

Expired

Jun 13, 2017, 8:00 PM CDT

In force

90 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

946 
ACUS11 KWNS 132330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132330 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the eastern TX/OK Panhandles into
northwest TX...western OK...and southwestern KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 324...

Valid 132330Z - 140100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 324
continues.

SUMMARY...1 to 4 inch diameter hail will continue to be the main
threat with supercells across WW 324. This significant severe-hail
threat should continue into western OK and southwestern KS for the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Impressive radar signatures depict multiple ongoing
supercells as of 2330Z across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles, moving
east-northeastward with time. In particular, a supercell moving from
northern Hall into Collingsworth/Childress Counties in TX has had a
consistent MRMS max hail estimate of 2.5-4 inches for the last 30
minutes or so. Multiple large hail reports of 1-2.5 inches have been
received with these thunderstorms so far, and a very favorable
thermodynamic environment characterized by 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE
will easily support a continued threat for large hail as convection
develops into western OK and southwestern KS over the next several
hours. In addition to the threat for large to giant hail, strong to
locally damaging winds should remain possible. A tornado or two also
cannot be ruled out in the next hour or two with any right-moving
supercell as a strengthening southerly low-level jet elongates the
hodograph at low-levels, thereby increasing effective SRH into the
250-300 m2/s2 range. By 02Z and later, increasing convective
inhibition will likely act to weaken any remaining storms.

..Gleason.. 06/13/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33030245 38140029 38189846 36439859 34779927 33020003
            33030245

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.