Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 1014
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2017, 3:14 PM CDT for Beaver County, Ellis County, Roger Mills County, Oklahoma; 24 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 13, 2017, 3:14 PM CDT (20:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 13, 2017, 5:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 27 counties
Beaver County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2131 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 134 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 132 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
656
ACUS11 KWNS 132014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132014
OKZ000-TXZ000-132245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017
Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles...TX South
Plains...and western OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 132014Z - 132245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development will likely occur in the
21-22Z time frame, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be likely.
Significant severe hail will be possible.
DISCUSSION...High-based cumulus development continues in proximity
to diurnal-heating bolstered dryline circulations from the central
OK Panhandle to western/central parts of the TX Panhandle and South
Plains. As MLCINH accompanying a warm elevated mixed layer continues
to erode, thunderstorm development will be likely in the 21-22Z time
frame, with activity spreading east-northeastward into the evening
hours east of the sharpening dryline. East of the dryline, surface
dewpoints have held in the lower/middle 60s beneath 8-9 C/km
midlevel lapse rates, yielding SBCAPE locally upwards of 3000-4000
J/kg. Furthermore, with 35-45 kt of effective shear -- enhanced by a
vertically veering wind profile and in proximity to a midlevel speed
maximum crossing the area per water vapor imagery -- sustained
supercells with significant severe hail will be likely. Some risk
for giant hail (4-inch hail) cannot be ruled out. Into the late
afternoon hours and the evening, strengthening convective outflow
with merging outflows may support isolated to widely scattered
severe wind gusts, as convection spreads into western OK. Given the
substantial buoyancy, and increase in effective SRH early this
evening coincident with the incipient stages of nocturnal decoupling
of the boundary layer, a tornado could also occur.
..Cohen/Hart.. 06/13/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33230208 33910223 35230181 36800067 36809973 36219961
34379992 33340050 33060161 33230208SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 3:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Harper and 3 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 13, 6:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Greer and 6 more | 90 min |
| Jun 13, 2:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Crane, Dawson, Ector, Glasscock, Howard and 5 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.