Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 1011
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2017, 2:09 PM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 13, 2017, 2:09 PM CDT (19:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 13, 2017, 4:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Borden County, TX, Crane County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 411 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -494 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1294 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 80 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
095
ACUS11 KWNS 131910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131909
TXZ000-132145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southwest TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 131909Z - 132145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for some severe thunderstorm
risk developing this afternoon and continuing into the evening.
Watch issuance will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Diurnally enhanced orographic circulations are
encouraging towering cumulus development over the Davis Mountains
and other southwest Texas mountains, on the east edges of nearly
dry-adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 3 km above ground. This
initial convection should deepen, evolving into a couple of isolated
storms. Meanwhile, a dryline continues to sharpen from near the
southeast NM/southwest TX border southward to the international
border. This dryline will be a focused zone for additional,
possible, isolated thunderstorm development into the late afternoon
hours. However, stronger forcing for ascent, attendant to a midlevel
speed maximum advancing from the southern Rockies to the adjacent
Plains, will reside north of the area.
Nevertheless, sufficient deep shear peripheral to the speed
maximum -- e.g., effective shear of 25-35 kt -- may support a few
sustained/organized cells (possible supercells) with severe
hail/wind possible. Storm motion will be somewhat erratic, with a
general slow eastward/southeastward spread of convection east of the
dryline into the evening hours. Upward convective-scale
accelerations will be bolstered by 8.0-8.5 C/km lapse rates
overlying a relatively moist boundary layer east of the dryline,
characterized by lower/middle 60s dewpoints. This is supporting
upwards of 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Very isolated instances of
significant severe hail could occur. However, overall storm coverage
may be lacking, owing to the lack of stronger deep ascent.
Regardless, convective and environmental trends will continue to be
monitored.
..Cohen/Hart.. 06/13/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30650404 32270262 32870191 32780115 32250104 30160249
29840389 30650404SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 3:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 18 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 13, 3:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth and 28 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 13, 6:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 23 more | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.