Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
657 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop this evening across
the area east of a Haskell to Ballinger line. While the
possibility of convective redevelopment cannot be ruled out
tonight, uncertainty in placement precludes an inclusion of
TSRA at our TAF sites at this time. Carrying VCTS at KABI and
KSJT until 02Z, and will closely monitor radar trends and update
if needed. VFR conditions are expected through early tonight. Low
cloud development/expansion to the north-northwest is expected
overnight with MVFR ceilings. Our southern terminals will be
affected shortly after 06Z, and KABI and KSJT should be affected
by 09Z. Low cloud cover should persist through Friday morning,
and ceilings should gradually climb above 3000 feet between 1 PM
and 3 PM Friday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
will be possible after 3 PM Friday. South-southeast winds will
continue through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A conditional forecast for severe weather tonight. Strong
instability was present with MUCAPES up to 4000 J/KG and 0-6KM shear
of 45 KTS. Afternoon storms have been to the north of West Central
Texas this afternoon...as surface convergence has been weak earlier
this afternoon. However low level convergence has significantly
increased from Sweetwater to Haskell...where isolated storms were
beginning to develop. If a storm does develop, it could become
severe very quickly with no cap in place. A tornado watch is in
effect for all but the southern tier of West Central Texas until 10
PM.

The better chance of storms may come in after midnight as the upper
low over Utah moves into N. New Mexico, with shortwave rounding it.
Could see some severe weather given the instability, but don't
expect an organized severe weather event.

Friday, the severe weather outlook day 2 again has a slight
risk/enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms as dryline will be along
San Angelo CWA western boundary...from IRAAN to Sweetwater and Roby.
Instabilities will still be high again, with a stronger upper
shortwave moving through in the afternoon...and severe storms
will again be possible along and east of the dryline.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

As another upper low moves out of the Central Rockies and over
the Southern Plains, a cold front will be pushed into West
Central Texas Friday night. From Friday night through Sunday
morning, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be over
our southeastern counties. Showers and thunderstorms will
generally be south of I-20 Sunday and Sunday night. Most of the
forecast area will have a chance of precipitation Monday through
Tuesday night as the next cold front pushes south through the
forecast area.

High pressure will build over the area on Wednesday bringing dry
weather to the forecast area. A return of southeast winds will
bring warmer temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 80s
by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 69  84  60  76 /  40  50  60  40
San Angelo 	 70  87  64  78 /  40  40  60  60
Junction 	 71  85  67  81 /  30  40  40  60
Brownwood 	 70  83  65  76 /  40  40  70  60
Sweetwater 	 67  87  58  76 /  40  30  50  20
Ozona      	 69  88  64  79 /  30  40  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
348 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-192100-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
348 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and
evening across much of West Central Texas. Some storms will
become severe and significant severe weather is possible,
including very large hail, isolated tornadoes, damaging winds and
deadly lightning. The best potential for severe weather will be
along and north of a Mertzon to San Angelo to Brownwood line.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The risk for severe weather will continue Friday across the area.
The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.

Saturday and Sunday...strong to severe storms are possible,
mainly along the Interstate 10 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation has been activated this afternoon and will
likely be needed Friday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
530 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             CLYDE                   32.40N  99.50W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       CALLAHAN           TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WAS REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700072

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
536 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             7 N COLEMAN             31.93N  99.43W
05/18/2017  E2.50 INCH       COLEMAN            TX   STORM CHASER

            HAIL ALSO TOOK OUT WINDSHIELD

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700073

MKD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
545 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             20 N COLEMAN            32.12N  99.43W
05/18/2017  E1.75 INCH       CALLAHAN           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
            LAKE COLEMAN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700074

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
601 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     20 N COLEMAN            32.12N  99.43W
05/18/2017                   CALLAHAN           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO CARPORTS AND CANOPIES OF
            RESIDENCES AT LAKE COLEMAN. ROOF SHINGLE DAMAGE WAS ALSO
            REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700075

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
655 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE SILVER VALLEY      32.02N  99.48W
05/18/2017                   COLEMAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO CARPORTS AND CANOPIES OF
            RESIDENCES AT LAKE COLEMAN. ROOF SHINGLE DAMAGE WAS ALSO
            REPORTED.

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700075

MKD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             6 NE SILVER VALLEY      32.02N  99.48W
05/18/2017  E1.75 INCH       COLEMAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
            LAKE COLEMAN.

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700074

MKD