Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
906 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Zones have been updated to remove Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over primarily the
western Big Country through the morning hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning, mainly
affecting KABI And KSJT. Stratus will also result in MVFR ceilings
at all sites, except KABI. VFR conditions will return to all sites
by late morning or early afternoon. Winds will be from the south
at 12 to 20 knots, with higher gusts, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots
this evening. A cold front will move through the area Saturday
morning, resulting in gusty north winds and another chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Ongoing convection early this morning in the western Big Country has
prompted Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244 that is valid through 9 AM.
Currently, we have one severe thunderstorm in southwestern Nolan
County with more severe convection moving in from the west. Primary
concerns are large hail and damaging winds, although an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out, and one tornado warning has
already been issued to the west of our area. PoPs for this morning
reflect the current convection that is expected to persist into the
morning hours past 12Z. Expect much of these thunderstorms to weaken
and dissipate by late morning. Additional shower and thunderstorm
activity is possible farther east and south this afternoon.

Tonight a cold front will move south through the area, bringing a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. The best
chances will be east of a Haskell, to Abilene, to Junction line.
The southern extent of shower and thunderstorm chances depends on
the speed of the front as it moves south. With convection expected
to accompany the cold front, the effective front will likely move to
the south a little faster than models indicate, thus have likely
chances as far south as the I-10 corridor. Severe weather will be
possible with these storms overnight, with large hail and damaging
winds being the main hazards.

Expect another warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and
muggy overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

On Saturday, a cold front will be south of the forecast area,
with north winds of 10 to 15 mph. The best PoPs will be across the
southern half of the forecast area, with rain chances slowly
pushing south of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front, with highs
mainly in the mid to upper 70s. The cold front will sag farther
south on Sunday, with the better rain chances shifting south of
the forecast area. Slight chance/low end chance PoPs were
continued for the southern half of the region.

For the first part of next week, a large upper level trough will
move across the Plains. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate a
disturbance moving across the region Sunday night into Monday,
resulting in shower and thunderstorm development, especially across
the southern half of the forecast area. A cold front will then move
south through the region late Monday into Tuesday, resulting in
another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures are
expected behind the front along with gusty north winds. Temperatures
will be below normal for the first half of the week, with highs
mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s. A slow warm up will ensue for latter part of the
work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 84  58  76  56 /  50  60  20  20
San Angelo 	 88  62  78  59 /  50  50  30  40
Junction 	 86  66  79  61 /  40  60  60  60
Brownwood 	 84  63  76  57 /  40  60  40  40
Sweetwater 	 87  56  75  55 /  60  40  10  10
Ozona      	 88  62  79  59 /  50  50  40  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
440 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-200945-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
440 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight across much of
West Central Texas. Some of these storms may become strong to
severe, with large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and
dangerous lightning being the main hazards. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will be possible across much of West Central Texas
Saturday through Tuesday. The main hazards will be dangerous
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
929 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     HAIL             SWEETWATER              32.47N 100.41W
05/19/2017  E1.75 INCH       NOLAN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700090

MKD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1106 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HAIL             THROCKMORTON            33.18N  99.18W
05/19/2017  E1.00 INCH       THROCKMORTON       TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700092

WILEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1129 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

TXZ098-099-113-114-191715-
Haskell TX-Throckmorton TX-Shackelford TX-Jones TX-
1129 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HASKELL...EASTERN JONES AND
NORTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1129 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rochester to 6 miles southwest of Stamford
to 6 miles west of Hawley. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Haskell around 1135 AM CDT.
  Avoca around 1140 AM CDT.
  Weinert around 1145 AM CDT.
  Stamford, Lake Stamford Marina and Paint Creek around 1155 AM CDT.
  Lueders around 1200 PM CDT.
  Irby around 1210 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Funston, Hodges, Big
Country Baptist Assembly, Truby, Stith and The Intersection Of US-
180 And Farm Road 600.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 9947 3252 9997 3282 9992 3330 9988
      3340 9950 3340 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 233DEG 36KT 3325 9984 3287 9986 3258 9991

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1134 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

TXZ064-191715-
Sterling TX-
1134 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN STERLING COUNTY UNTIL
1215 PM CDT...

At 1134 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southwest of Sterling City, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sterling City around 1200 PM CDT.
  Broome around 1210 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 10084 3170 10083 3170 10086 3166 10086
      3157 10125 3163 10127 3179 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 244DEG 34KT 3170 10122

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1137 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 AM     HAIL             ELBERT                  33.27N  98.99W
05/19/2017  E0.88 INCH       THROCKMORTON       TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700093

WILEY