Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
341 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A conditional forecast for severe weather tonight. Strong
instability was present with MUCAPES up to 4000 J/KG and 0-6KM shear
of 45 KTS. Afternoon storms have been to the north of West Central
Texas this afternoon...as surface convergence has been weak earlier
this afternoon. However low level convergence has significantly
increased from Sweetwater to Haskell...where isolated storms were
beginning to develop. If a storm does develop, it could become
severe very quickly with no cap in place. A tornado watch is in
effect for all but the southern tier of West Central Texas until 10
PM.

The better chance of storms may come in after midnight as the upper
low over Utah moves into N. New Mexico, with shortwave rounding it.
Could see some severe weather given the instability, but don't
expect an organized severe weather event.

Friday, the severe weather outlook day 2 again has a slight
risk/enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms as dryline will be along
San Angelo CWA western boundary...from IRAAN to Sweetwater and Roby.
Instabilities will still be high again, with a stronger upper
shortwave moving through in the afternoon...and severe storms
will again be possible along and east of the dryline.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

As another upper low moves out of the Central Rockies and over
the Southern Plains, a cold front will be pushed into West
Central Texas Friday night. From Friday night through Sunday
morning, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be over
our southeastern counties. Showers and thunderstorms will
generally be south of I-20 Sunday and Sunday night. Most of the
forecast area will have a chance of precipitation Monday through
Tuesday night as the next cold front pushes south through the
forecast area.

High pressure will build over the area on Wednesday bringing dry
weather to the forecast area. A return of southeast winds will
bring warmer temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 80s
by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 69  84  60  76 /  40  50  60  40
San Angelo 	 70  87  64  78 /  40  40  60  60
Junction 	 71  85  67  81 /  30  40  40  60
Brownwood 	 70  83  65  76 /  40  40  70  60
Sweetwater 	 67  87  58  76 /  40  30  50  20
Ozona      	 69  88  64  79 /  30  40  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE BIG COUNTRY, THE CONCHO VALLEY, AND THE HEARTLAND...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
348 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-192100-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
348 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and
evening across much of West Central Texas. Some storms will
become severe and significant severe weather is possible,
including very large hail, isolated tornadoes, damaging winds and
deadly lightning. The best potential for severe weather will be
along and north of a Mertzon to San Angelo to Brownwood line.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The risk for severe weather will continue Friday across the area.
The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.

Saturday and Sunday...strong to severe storms are possible,
mainly along the Interstate 10 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation has been activated this afternoon and will
likely be needed Friday afternoon.