Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Shreveport, LA

856 
WWUS54 KSHV 032115
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
415 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

TXC401-032145-
/O.CON.KSHV.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-170503T2145Z/
Rusk TX-
415 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL RUSK COUNTY...

At 415 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Henderson,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Minden, Church Hill, Chapman, Stewart and Brachfield. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Shreveport.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 9472 3237 9463 3236 9462 3198 9463
      3198 9498 3214 9498 3214 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 274DEG 21KT 3212 9473 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
114 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include issuance of Svr Tstm watch to ne TX, a portion
of sw AR, and extreme nw La until 7 pm, and to remove most of LA
portions of Tor Watch, this stretches across southern tier of cwa,
until 5 pm. Squall line movg east across FTW metro area warranting
issuance of Svr Watch. Widespread cloud cover stabilization
warranted the cancellation of portion of Tor Watch./07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1235 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017/

AVIATION...
MVFR-IFR CIGS continued to plagued the TAF sites early this aftn,
and will likely persist through the majority of the TAF period as
SHRA/TSRA activity becomes more widespread by late aftn. At this time,
a warm front has aided in the development of a complex of scattered
-SHRA/-TSRA across central LA, and another complex of storms near
an old outflow boundary were noted near ktxk and keld  just
north of kshv. However, isolated -SHRA/-TSRA have developed near
kshv, ktyr and kggg due to a bit of daytime destabilization.
Computer models hint at a more prominent line of storms
developing along a strong cold front, later this afternoon
through early-mid evening, that will affect all TAF sites. Have tried
to incorporate the best timing of when the storm activity will
affect the TAF sites with this forecast. By mid-late evening, the
majority of the precipitation will be exiting the region and
perhaps lingering -SHRA will be left in its wake. Thereafter, rather breezy
northwest wind speeds will ensue tomorrow morning which could near kshv
and keld near an outflow boundary. Lake Wind Advisory wind speed criteria
for most TAF sites /15-20 mph/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1121 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Intense tstms south of warm front remaining south of cwa. As this
front may move into southern tier parishes of LA, have mentioned
svr storms with locally heavy rainfall thru out the day. However,
made more adjustments further north where tstm cluster movg across
AR along prefrontal trough, with narrow boundary development
further west into ne TX. Then, squall line will begin to initiate
just ahead of stg cold front which will move into the area later
this aftn. Therefore, have split fcst to late mrng/early aftn,
transitioning to more widespread storms and potential svr threat
areawide late aftn with squall line included. Also adjusted aftn
temps, particularly a raising of aftn temps over portions of ne TX
and extreme nw LA, per current trends and where cloud cover is
broken./07/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 746 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast package has been updated to include the issuance of
Tornado Watch 190 for portions of Deep East Texas eastward into
North Central Louisiana through 22z this afternoon.

Strong to severe convection is rapidly developing from the
Gulf Coast northward across the Interstate 10 corridor. The 12z
SHV sounding indicates considerable CINH and little in the way of
instability. Farther south, forecast soundings at LFK suggest a
rapid increase in instability and decrease in CINH within the next
few hours as the warm from lifts northeast across the area
allowing warm and moist air to surge northward into the area. This
should make conditions more favorable for severe weather later
today.

CN

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough just beginning to emerge from the Rockies will
dive southeast and into the Southern Plains by this afternoon.
This will help to drive a cold front, currently near the
Interstate 40 corridor in Oklahoma and Arkansas, towards the
area. Strong low level southerly flow is allowing Gulf moisture to
rapidly surge northward. This will likely be enhanced later this
morning as a warm front moves northeast across the CWA ahead of
the approaching cold front.

Convection is expected to rapidly develop by mid to late morning
across Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana near the warm front
in a warm air advection regime. A squall line is also expected to
develop ahead of the advancing cold front to the northwest of the
area. Showers and thunderstorms should become widespread,
especially as the zone of warm air advection and broad large scale
ascent spreads across the area during the day today. Deep layer
shear profiles are certainly supportive of severe weather, and
steep mid level lapse rates suggest a potential for large hail,
especially with any cells ahead of the main squall line. There is
also a concern for tornadic potential along mesoscale boundaries
today. The warm front and any remnant outflow boundary from
activity just south of the area could serve to locally enhance low
level helicity values. Damaging straight line winds will
certainly be possible as the squall line moves across the area
ahead of the cold front. In addition, multiple rounds of
thunderstorms and locally heavy rain rates could produce rainfall
amounts between 1 and 3 inches. The highest amounts will likely be
southeast of a line from Lufkin, to Shreveport, Prescott.

The main fly-in-the-ointment, and the biggest factor of
uncertainty, is the instability. The latest high resolution
models, including the NAM, WRF-ARW, and HRRR, depict very little
in the way of surface-based CAPE. This is most likely due to cloud
cover and the expected widespread pre-frontal convection in the
warm sector. This lack of instability could serve to limit the
severe weather potential, at least until the main squall line
arrives. However, previous model runs did not depict this lack of
instability. Therefore, if pre-frontal convective coverage is not
widespread and breaks in the clouds develop, the instability will
be greater and the severe weather threat will increase.

The cold front is expected to quickly move across the area late
this afternoon and tonight. Convection should end by 09z Thursday
morning. Post-frontal winds will be northwesterly and increase in
speed with a tight pressure gradient. Wind speeds should meet Lake
Wind Advisory criteria across much of the area this evening and
tonight behind the cold front. Criteria level winds will likely
persist for much of Thursday and should affect more of the area
during the day. Thus, the current Lake Wind Advisory may need to
be expanded both in areal coverage and extended in time by later
shifts.

Beyond early Thursday morning, the forecast will be dry through
the remainder of the next seven days. Medium range models continue
to show good agreement in the development of a highly amplified
upper ridge across the Central CONUS on Saturday. A weak blocking
pattern should also develop allowing the ridge to dominate our
weather until at least next Wednesday. With high-and-dry
conditions in place, temperatures should gradually warm through
the extended periods.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  50  71  52 /  80  70  10   0
MLU  77  54  67  51 /  80  90  10   0
DEQ  67  48  69  47 /  70  40  10   0
TXK  72  49  68  50 /  80  50  10   0
ELD  77  50  67  48 /  70  80  10   0
TYR  79  49  71  49 /  80  20  10   0
GGG  80  49  70  50 /  80  40  10   0
LFK  77  52  73  51 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for ARZ070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153-166-167.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
106 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

ARZ060-061-070>072-LAZ001-002-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-
149>151-041815-
Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Caddo-Bossier-
Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-
Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
106 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, northwest Louisiana and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area will begin to
intensify later this afternoon as a line of strong to severe
storms will move into the area from the northwest ahead of a
strong cold front. strong to possible damaging wind gusts will be
the primary threat with the approaching squall line. Isolated
large hail is also possible. Total rainfall amounts of one to
three inches are expected, resulting in possible isolated areas of
localized flooding.

Winds will become northwesterly and increase in speed to 15 to 20
mph with gusts near 25 mph late this afternoon and tonight
following the passage of the cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

The severe weather threat will end early Thursday morning. Gusty
northwesterly winds will likely persist through much of Thursday.
However, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and early evening.

ARZ073-LAZ003>006-010>014-018>022-041815-
Union-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-
Jackson-Ouachita-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
106 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, north central Louisiana and northwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area will begin to
intensify later this afternoon into the early evening, as a line
of strong to severe storms will move into the area from the
northwest ahead of a strong cold front. strong to possible
damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with the
approaching squall line. Isolated large hail is also possible.
Total rainfall amounts of one to three inches are expected,
resulting in possible isolated areas of localized flooding.

Winds will become northwesterly and increase in speed to 15 to 20
mph with gusts near 25 mph tonight following the passage of the
cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

The severe weather threat will end early Thursday morning. Gusty
northwesterly winds will likely persist through much of Thursday.
However, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-041815-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-McCurtain-
106 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

There is an Slight Risk of severe weather across the area this
afternoon and into the evening across the area.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area
will continue through most of the afternoon as a strong cold front
approaches the area by early this evening. Strong wind gusts will
be the primary threat with the approaching squall line. Isolated
hail is also possible. Total rainfall amounts of one to two
inches are expected, resulting in ponding of water on roads and in
low lying areas where heavy rain occurs.

Winds will become northwesterly and increase in speed to 15 to 20
mph with gusts near 25 mph late this afternoon and tonight
following the passage of the cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

The severe weather threat will end early Thursday morning. Gusty
northwesterly winds will likely persist through much of Thursday.
However, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation could possibly be required this afternoon and
early evening.

LAZ017-TXZ152-153-165>167-041815-
Sabine-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
106 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest
Louisiana and east Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to rapidly
increase in coverage and intensify this afternoon with daytime
heating. Stronger storms may be capable of producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and possible tornadoes.

In addition, a line of strong to severe storms will move into the
area from the northwest ahead of a strong cold front early this
evening. Strong to possible damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat with the approaching squall line. Total rainfall
amounts of one to three inches are expected, resulting in possible
isolated areas of localized flooding.

Winds will become northwesterly and increase in speed to 15 to 20
mph with gusts near 25 mph and tonight following the passage of
the cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Gusty northwesterly winds will likely persist through much of
Thursday. However, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be required this afternoon and
early evening.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
335 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             TROUP                   32.14N 95.12W
05/03/2017  E1.25 INCH       SMITH              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ALS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
335 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

TXZ110-124-125-136-032100-
Upshur TX-Smith TX-Camp TX-Wood TX-
335 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SMITH...WOOD...WESTERN
UPSHUR AND SOUTHWESTERN CAMP COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 335 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Golden, or 9 miles northwest of Mineola, moving east at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mineola, Quitman, Big Sandy, Hawkins, Rosewood, Hoard, Pleasant
Grove, Hainesville, Golden, Forest Hill, Alba, Yantis, Perryville,
Grice and Pritchett.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
northeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3294 9503 3252 9499 3262 9559 3269 9559
      3272 9564 3293 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 275DEG 41KT 3275 9561

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             TYLER                   32.33N 95.30W
05/03/2017  E2.50 INCH       SMITH              TX   PUBLIC

&&

ALS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
338 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             1 S TYLER               32.32N 95.30W
05/03/2017  E1.00 INCH       SMITH              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT
            ROBERT E LEE HIGH SCHOOL AREA IN SOUTH
            TYLER.

&&

LFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
339 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     HAIL             NEW CHAPEL HILL         32.30N 95.17W
05/03/2017  E0.75 INCH       SMITH              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ALS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             2 S TYLER               32.30N 95.30W
05/03/2017  E1.00 INCH       SMITH              TX   PUBLIC

&&

ALS