Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
310 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbances and moisture will bring scattered mainly
afternoon thunderstorms through Thursday. A cold front crosses
Friday and Friday night. Cooler and less humid for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Upper level disturbances and increasing moisture in west to
southwest flow aloft will bring chances for showers and storms
through Thursday. Models have difficulty in tracking and timing
these weak upper disturbances, but models appear to lift most of
these disturbances up across the northwest half of the area.
With lack of a surface boundary for focusing, most of the
activity will be of a scattered nature and diurnally driven in
the afternoon heat. Thus, the best chances will be in the
afternoon and evening, over west and northwestern portions of
the area, and to a lesser degree over the mountains with an
elevated heat source, and finally a relative minimum in activity
for many areas between the Ohio River and the mountains.
Tonight will see a typical dissipation of showers this evening
with loss of heating, but isolated activity is still possible in
the west. There will likely be more river valley fog tonight
than last night. Lows tonight in the 60s.

For Thursday, look for mainly a repeat of today as far as
convection goes, and a bit more humid. Highs Thursday in the
80s with intervals of sun and clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Wednesday...

A cold front will push through the region Friday afternoon and
evening, producing showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the
amount of instability allowed to build before the storms arrive,
could see some severe thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Wednesday...

A high pressure system will provide cooler and drier weather for the
weekend.

As the high slides eastward, moisture from the next system will
arrive Sunday night into Monday. Models continue to vary
considerably with the timing of this system and the associated cold
front, so confidence is low.

Cooler air can be expected behind this system for mid week, but
models once again vary with some waves skirting southern portions of
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z Wednesday thru 18Z Thursday...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Upper disturbances in west to southwest flow aloft will be
lifting mainly up through southeastern OH, northeastern KY and
northwestern WV thru Thursday. Scattered showers and TSTMS will
be associated with these features, most numerous this afternoon
and evening, and again Thursday afternoon. Elsewhere generally
diurnally driven isolated convection this afternoon, dissipating
early this evening. Look for more isolated to scattered showers
and storms Thursday afternoon, most numerous again in the
west portions of the area with more upper disturbances. Have
included VCTS in most of the TAF sites this afternoon. Light and
variable winds.

VFR clouds SCT-BKN AOA 5000 feet AGL will dominate this period,
except briefly lower in any heavier convection this afternoon
and evening, and of course in river valley fog later tonight.
Even with clouds around tonight, believe with an increase in low
level moisture and breaks in the clouds, there will be river
valley fog. Generally MVFR river valley fog after 06Z, except
IFR in more prone river valleys 09Z-12Z such as EKN and CRW.
Near calm winds.

Thursday, fog dissipates by 13Z, leaving SCT-BKN clouds AOA
5000 feet AGL with SCT showers and storms mainly after 16Z,
especially west. light and variable winds again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Mid to high clouds may be too thick for
dense fog to form at some sites tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Friday into Friday night,
and then in stratus and perhaps fog early Saturday morning, all
as a cold front crosses.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-031915-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
Lawrence OH-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-
Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Ohio, and portions
of central West Virginia, northern West Virginia, southern West
Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight risk that thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening could produce damaging wind gusts and/or large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034-515>526-031915-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Lincoln-
Mingo-Logan-Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southwest
Virginia, and portions of northeast West Virginia, southeast West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk that thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening could produce damaging wind gusts and/or large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
252 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

WVZ033-021915-
McDowell-
252 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL
COUNTY...

At 251 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Amonate, or 9
miles northwest of Tazewell. The storm is nearly stationary.

Locations impacted include...
Anawalt and Cucumber.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water on country roads and
farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

LAT...LON 3724 8172 3724 8175 3725 8174 3734 8143
      3727 8144 3725 8148 3725 8150 3726 8150
      3723 8151 3722 8154 3721 8156 3720 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 047DEG 1KT 3723 8160

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
459 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

OHZ075-084-022130-
Athens-Vinton-
459 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ATHENS AND EAST CENTRAL
VINTON COUNTIES...

At 458 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lake Hope State
Park, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm. Very heavy rainfall is also expected with this storm, which
could quickly fill ditches and poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Albany, Nelsonville, Chauncey and The Plains.

LAT...LON 3922 8226 3933 8234 3949 8212 3925 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 247DEG 6KT 3931 8225

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
633 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

WVZ007-022300-
Mason-
633 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MASON COUNTY...

At 632 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles west of
Buffalo, or 11 miles south of Gallipolis, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and
may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Ashton.

LAT...LON 3881 8211 3869 8195 3859 8216 3865 8218
      3870 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 216DEG 14KT 3866 8215

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
645 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

OHZ075-085-022315-
Athens-Meigs-
645 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MEIGS AND
ATHENS COUNTIES...

At 643 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Lake Hope State Park to 7 miles
southeast of Albany. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms. A 45 mph gust was reported at the Ohio University Airport
near Albany. Gusts this strong can bring down weak trees and limbs.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Glouster, Albany, Coolville, Nelsonville, Chauncey, Buchtel,
Jacksonville, Trimble, Stroud Run State Park, Darwin, Harrisonville
and The Plains.

LAT...LON 3923 8178 3909 8214 3921 8227 3929 8226
      3930 8230 3939 8229 3951 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 207DEG 20KT 3938 8231 3915 8210

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
658 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

OHZ085-WVZ007-008-022330-
Meigs-Jackson-Mason-
658 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL MEIGS...CENTRAL
MASON AND WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 657 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Point Pleasant, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and
may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Ripley, Leon, Cottageville, Mount Alto, Evans, Southside and Letart.

LAT...LON 3867 8203 3873 8210 3898 8195 3883 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 219DEG 19KT 3876 8201

16