Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
250 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbances and moisture will bring scattered mainly afternoon
thunderstorms through Thursday. High pressure continues sliding
eastward through Thursday with gradually increasing moisture. A
cold front crosses Friday and Friday night. Cooler and less
humid for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Upper level disturbances and increasing moisture in west to
southwest flow aloft will bring chances for showers and storms
through Thursday. Models have difficulty in tracking and timing
these weak upper disturbances, but models appear to lift most of
these disturbances up across the northwest half of the area.
With lack of a surface boundary for focusing, most of the
activity will be of a scattered nature and diurnally driven in
the afternoon heat. Thus, the best chances will be in the
afternoon and evening, over west and northwestern portions of
the area, and to a lesser degree over the mountains with an
elevated heat source, and finally a relative minimum in activity
for many areas between the Ohio River and the mountains.
Tonight will see a typical dissipation of showers this evening
with loss of heating, but isolated activity is still possible in
the west. There will likely be more river valley fog tonight
than last night. Lows tonight in the 60s.

For Thursday, look for mainly a repeat of today as far as
convection goes, and a bit more humid. Highs Thursday in the
80s with intervals of sun and clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

An increase in moisture will continue into Thursday as a high
pressure drifts to the east. Probabilities for afternoon/evening
convection increases mainly over the mountains.

A cold front approaches from the west Thursday night and early
Friday with good chances for showers and thunderstorms. Models
have been consistent and in agreement with the timing of the
cold front. Cold front crosses Friday and Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

A high pressure builds behind the front to provide cooler and
drier weather for the weekend. Guidance suggests a shortwave
crossing Monday night to Tuesday with good chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z Wednesday thru 18Z Thursday...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Upper disturbances in west to southwest flow aloft will be
lifting mainly up through southeastern OH, northeastern KY and
northwestern WV thru Thursday. Scattered showers and TSTMS will
be associated with these features, most numerous this afternoon
and evening, and again Thursday afternoon. Elsewhere generally
diurnally driven isolated convection this afternoon, dissipating
early this evening. Look for more isolated to scattered showers
and storms Thursday afternoon, most numerous again in the
west portions of the area with more upper disturbances. Have
included VCTS in most of the TAF sites this afternoon. Light and
variable winds.

VFR clouds SCT-BKN AOA 5000 feet AGL will dominate this period,
except briefly lower in any heavier convection this afternoon
and evening, and of course in river valley fog later tonight.
Even with clouds around tonight, believe with an increase in low
level moisture and breaks in the clouds, there will be river
valley fog. Generally MVFR river valley fog after 06Z, except
IFR in more prone river valleys 09Z-12Z such as EKN and CRW.
Near calm winds.

Thursday, fog dissipates by 13Z, leaving SCT-BKN clouds AOA
5000 feet AGL with SCT showers and storms mainly after 16Z,
especially west. light and variable winds again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Mid to high clouds may be too thick for
dense fog to form at some sites tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Friday into Friday night,
and then in stratus and perhaps fog early Saturday morning, all
as a cold front crosses.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-030730-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
320 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
252 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

WVZ033-021915-
McDowell-
252 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL
COUNTY...

At 251 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Amonate, or 9
miles northwest of Tazewell. The storm is nearly stationary.

Locations impacted include...
Anawalt and Cucumber.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water on country roads and
farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

LAT...LON 3724 8172 3724 8175 3725 8174 3734 8143
      3727 8144 3725 8148 3725 8150 3726 8150
      3723 8151 3722 8154 3721 8156 3720 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 047DEG 1KT 3723 8160

09