Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
316 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary over the area will drift slowly the north
late this afternoon and evening, triggering showers and
thunderstorms. A stronger cold front crosses from the west
Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure moves in for Monday and
Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM Saturday...

Frontal boundary will lift northward this afternoon and evening.
With a moist airmass in place with afternoon heating will fire
convection just about anywhere over the area. With weak flow
aloft these storms will be slow movers. Any one of these storms
could product upwards of an inch or two. With the saturated
ground across the Southern Coalfields, went ahead an issued FFA
for that area.

Cold front to our west will continue to move eastward overnight
and should be on our doorstep by 12z Sunday. Increased pops as
front approaches. Generally went with a blend of guid for temps
through out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Saturday...
Cold front pushes through Sunday night and exits early Monday
morning. Pwats increase with limited sfc CAPE and deep layered
shear. Therefore, expect an environment conducive to flash
flooding and not severe for Sunday. WPC has most of WV under a
Slight risk for excessive rainfall Sunday. A flash flood watch
may be required.

Behind the front, expect a period of cooler and drier air early
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM Saturday...

The chances for rain return by midweek with the next frontal
system. Temperatures will return to a more seasonable level
during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 154 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the early afternoon hours.
Heating along with frontal boundary lifting northward through
the region will fire Showers/TSTMs just about any where over the
area this afternoon and into this evening.  MVFR/IFR cigs and
vsbys in and near those storms. Quickest development will be
along the WV/VA mountains from EKN-BKW line. SHRA/TSTMs should
die down after sunset. Some fog may develop in those areas where
it rained after midnight. Cold front to our west will continue
to move eastward during the day on Sunday and some convection
with this front could be over the area by midday Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and placement of showers/TSTMs this
afternoon may vary. Also, development and placement of fog may
vary overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO
AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Isolated IFR possible in fog Sunday and Monday nights, and in
showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005-013-
     024>026-033-034-515-516.
OH...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/JW
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...JS/JW
LONG TERM...JS/JW
AVIATION...JS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
327 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-517>526-211930-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-
Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-
Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
327 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southeast West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Numerous showers and storms could produce very heavy rainfall on
Sunday. The area is under a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall.
Flash flood watch may be required.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-211930-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-
Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-
327 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky and southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A cold front will bring copious rainfall to the area on Sunday. The
area is under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034-515-516-211930-
Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Lincoln-Mingo-Logan-Boone-
McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
327 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and portions of southeast West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Numerous showers and storms could produce very heavy rainfall on
Sunday. The area is under a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall.
Flash flood watch may be required.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             BRADSHAW                37.35N  81.80W
05/20/2017  E0.25 INCH       MCDOWELL           WV   911 CALL CENTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL IN BRADSHAW

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1700431

SL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
633 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             MEADOW BRIDGE           37.86N  80.86W
05/20/2017  E1.00 INCH       FAYETTE            WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN MEADOW BRIDGE WV

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1700432

SL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHLAND                 38.46N  82.64W
05/20/2017                   BOYD               KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE BRANCHES ON TOP OF CAR IN ASHLAND

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1700433

SL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
639 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

WVZ519>522-202315-
Southeast Nicholas-Southeast Webster-Northwest Webster-Northwest
Nicholas-
639 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NICHOLAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES...

At 639 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Richwood,
moving north at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Summersville, Richwood, Camden-On-gauley, Camden On Gauley,
Craigsville, Calvin, Canvas, Muddlety and Nettie.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3823 8037 3826 8043 3826 8044 3808 8071
      3810 8082 3839 8089 3841 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 179DEG 8KT 3816 8061

17