Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Raleigh, NC

654 
WWUS52 KRAH 012239
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
639 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

NCC069-101-127-183-191-195-012300-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-170901T2300Z/
Wayne NC-Nash NC-Wake NC-Johnston NC-Wilson NC-Franklin NC-
639 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...NASH...NORTHEASTERN WAKE...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSTON...WILSON AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 637 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located near Clayton, 
Goldsboro, and Wilson, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Goldsboro, Smithfield, Nashville, Wilson, Clayton,
Zebulon, Elm City, Fremont and Dortches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to 
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3528 7784 3540 7826 3561 7855
      3606 7842 3605 7776 3587 7783 3583 7775
      3574 7772 3568 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 256DEG 26KT 3567 7834 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BLAES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
450 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled west to east frontal zone across central NC will lift
north as a warm front late tonight as Harvey's remnants track slowly
northeast into Ohio Valley. A cold front will move slowly west to
east through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build into the
area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 450 PM Friday...

... There is a enhanced threat of severe storms capable of producing
tornadoes mainly in areas just south of the Triad and Triangle
areas, including Albemarle, Wadesboro, Southern Pines, Sanford, and
Fayetteville...through the evening...

...Widespread rain/clouds should limit severe chances over the Triad
and the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain...

Stalled frontal boundary that extends NW to SE along a line from
Lexington/Davidson Co. to Sanford/Lee Co. to Goldsboro/Wayne Co.
is separating an impressive cold air damming regime that features
temperatures in the lower 60s and a stiff NELY wind from the equally
impressive warm sector that has 4 pm temperatures in the
lower 90s.

Strengthening southwesterly low to mid-level flow, owing to the
NEWD jog of Harvey's remnants into eastern TN/KY is resulting in
crazy strong/favorable effective bulk shear of 60 to 70kt
that is allowing for discrete supercells to develop across the area.
When these cells approach the stalled frontal zone and
encounter/interact equally favorable 0-1km helicity values of 200 to
300 ms-2 a quick spin-up of a tornado will be possible in a 10 to 15
mile swath on either side of the stalled frontal zone. Once any
storm moves more to far north into the more stable/wedge environment
that storms will weaken and become entirely elevated.

A prominent squall line has emerged across the western Piedmont and
it will progress eastward across central and eastern NC. Strong
damaging wind gusts will be possible along this line, mainly south
and east of US 64. Linear extrapolation suggests this squall line
will largely be east of the area by 03z. Thereafter, waning
instability should result in a decrease in both storm intensity and
coverage with scattered and mostly sub-severe convection through the
remainder of the night.

Additionally, storm total QPF of 1-2 inches appears likely, with
locally higher amounts, thus any flash flooding will be limited to
poor drainage areas such as urban areas.

Lows tonight will range from lower 60s NW to lower 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Friday...

Expect precip to lift northeast from central NC into northeast NC
and southeast VA during the day Sat as Harvey's remnants weaken and
lift northeast into the lower Great Lakes. Expect highs ranging from
~80F north to mid 80s south. Lows should range from the lower/mid
60s in the N/NW to mid/upper 60s SE. -Vincent

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 335 PM Friday...

Long range guidance continues to indicate dry conditions will
prevail Sun-Mon and perhaps through Tue, with central NC situated at
the southern fringe of the westerlies in a relatively dry (albeit
slowly modifying) airmass. Expect precipitation chances to markedly
increase by mid-week (with heavy rainfall possible) as shortwave
energy digs SE through the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes, an upper
level trough amplifies along/west of the Appalachians, and moisture
advects northeast from the GOMEX into the Carolinas. Expect near
normal temperatures early next week with below normal temperatures
mid-week as cloud cover and precip chances increase. -Vincent

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday through Wednesday/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

West-east oriented frontal zone will stall south of the Triangle or
generally south of Highway 64. IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to
dominate across the northern terminals(KINT,KGSO,KRDU and KRWI)
through 12 to 15z Saturday. Meanwhile, KFAY will remain south of
this front, with aviation conditions outside of convection, expected
to remain VFR. All TAF sites will see multiple rounds of showers and
storms this afternoon through around 06z. Severe storms capable of
producing damaging thunderstorm winds and an isolated tornado or two
is greatest at KFAY, KRDU and KRWI between 20 to 02z. Storms will
decrease in both coverage and intensity after 06z.

Stalled front will lift north as a warm front between 06 to 12z.
Ceilings in the wake of the front are expected to return to VFR
between 13 to 16z. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to re-develop Saturday afternoon, mainly
along and east of KRDU.

High pressure will build into the area Sunday through early next
week as surface high pressure builds over the area. The approach of
a cold front from the west late Tuesday night and Wednesday will
bring the next chance of showers/storms along with sub VFR
conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG
TERM...Vincent AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
206 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

NCZ038>042-073>078-083>086-088-089-021815-
Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-
Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
206 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 477 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for Tornado Watch 477 in effect until
10 PM EDT this evening.

NCZ007>011-021>028-043-021815-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-
206 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in
vicinity of a stalled frontal zone over central North Carolina this
afternoon and evening. Although severe weather is unlikely on the
cool side of the front near the Virginia border, an isolated severe
thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out through midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
543 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             2 SE FUQUAY-VARINA      35.57N 78.77W
09/01/2017  E2.75 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN ADDITION MULTIPLE TREES HAVE BEEN BLOWN
            DOWN.

&&

TCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
546 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             3 SW CARPENTER          35.79N 78.92W
09/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

&&

TCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
556 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             2 WSW FUQUAY-VARINA     35.58N 78.83W
09/01/2017  M1.75 INCH       WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED AT PHELPS WEST ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
557 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             2 WNW ANGIER            35.53N 78.77W
09/01/2017  E2.75 INCH       HARNETT            NC   PUBLIC

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT ATKINS ROAD.
            LARGE HAIL REPORTED FROM 500 TO 511PM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
607 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANGIER                  35.51N 78.74W
09/01/2017                   HARNETT            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
            OF THE COUNTY.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
609 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

NCZ021-038-012315-
Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-
609 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FORSYTH AND
DAVIDSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 608 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cooleemee, or near Mocksville, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Thomasville, Linwood, High Rock Lake, Arcadia, Gordontown
and Welcome.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and other light
outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8048 3583 8046 3583 8043 3585 8042
      3585 8039 3587 8039 3588 8042 3589 8041
      3589 8037 3597 8039 3609 8004 3570 8006
      3570 8033 3572 8033 3574 8046 3577 8045
      3579 8048 3581 8047 3583 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 248DEG 28KT 3582 8058

WSS