Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Pueblo, CO

231 
WGUS65 KPUB 261817
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1217 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Eastern Mountains and
Plains from 3 PM MDT Today through 3 AM MDT Thursday...

.Deep monsoon moisture will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms producing heavy rain over southern Colorado this
afternoon and evening. Flash flooding will be possible, particularly
over burn scars and urban areas.

COZ072>089-093>099-270230-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0006.170726T2100Z-170727T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Silver Cliff, 
Westcliffe, Rye, Woodland Park, Pikes Peak, Canon City, Penrose, 
Black Forest, Colorado Springs, Peterson AFB, Pueblo, Walsenburg,
Trinidad, Ordway, Olney Springs, La Junta, Rocky Ford, Branson, 
Kim, Eads, Sheridan Lake, Las Animas, Lamar, Springfield, 
and Walsh
1217 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Colorado, east central Colorado, and 
  southeast Colorado, including the following areas, in central 
  Colorado, Fremont County and Teller County and the Rampart 
  Range. In east central Colorado, El Paso County. In southeast 
  Colorado, Baca County, Bent County, Crowley County, Eastern 
  Kiowa County, Eastern Las Animas County, Huerfano County, 
  Northern Sangre De Cristo Mountains, Otero County, Prowers 
  County, Pueblo County, Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains, 
  Western Kiowa County, Western Las Animas County, Wet Mountain 
  Valley, and Wet Mountains. 

* Through late tonight

* Deep monsoon moisture will result in widespread showers and 
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain. 

* Burn scars, urban areas, small streams and locations with poor 
  drainage may flood. Water may flow over or damage roads making 
  them impassable. Normally dry streams, arroyos and low water 
  crossings may flood. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

550 
WGUS65 KPUB 270243
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
843 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Eastern Mountains and
Plains through 3 AM MDT Thursday...

.Deep monsoon moisture will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms producing heavy rain over southern Colorado this
afternoon and evening. Flash flooding will be possible,
particularly over burn scars and urban areas.

COZ072>089-093>099-270900-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-170727T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Silver Cliff, 
Westcliffe, Rye, Woodland Park, Pikes Peak, Canon City, Penrose, 
Black Forest, Colorado Springs, Peterson AFB, Pueblo, Walsenburg,
Trinidad, Ordway, Olney Springs, La Junta, Rocky Ford, Branson, 
Kim, Eads, Sheridan Lake, Las Animas, Lamar, Springfield, 
and Walsh
843 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT THURSDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Colorado, east central Colorado, and 
  southeast Colorado, including the following areas, in central 
  Colorado, Fremont County and Teller County and the Rampart 
  Range. In east central Colorado, El Paso County. In southeast 
  Colorado, Baca County, Bent County, Crowley County, Eastern 
  Kiowa County, Eastern Las Animas County, Huerfano County, 
  Northern Sangre De Cristo Mountains, Otero County, Prowers 
  County, Pueblo County, Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains, 
  Western Kiowa County, Western Las Animas County, Wet Mountain 
  Valley, and Wet Mountains. 

* Until 3 AM MDT Thursday

* Deep monsoon moisture will result in showers and thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain. 

* Burn scars, urban areas, small streams and locations with poor 
  drainage may flood. Water may flow over or damage roads making 
  them impassable. Normally dry streams, arroyos and low water 
  crossings may flood. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means conditions are favorable for flash 
flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

Flash Flooding is especially dangerous at night. Do not drive
through water of unknown depth. Your car may be swept away or the
road may be washed away beneath the water. Turn around, don't
drown.

&&

$$

018 
WGUS65 KPUB 270859
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
259 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Threat for Flash Flooding has decreased...

.Rainfall across the plains will steadily decrease overnight with
only light additional amounts expected into this morning.
Therefore the flash flood watch will be allowed to expire.

COZ072>089-093>099-271000-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-170727T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Silver Cliff, 
Westcliffe, Rye, Woodland Park, Pikes Peak, Canon City, Penrose, 
Black Forest, Colorado Springs, Peterson AFB, Pueblo, Walsenburg,
Trinidad, Ordway, Olney Springs, La Junta, Rocky Ford, Branson, 
Kim, Eads, Sheridan Lake, Las Animas, Lamar, Springfield, 
and Walsh
259 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Colorado, east
central Colorado, and southeast Colorado will expire at 3 AM MDT
early this morning. Rainfall rates and the threat for flash 
flooding across the plains will steadily decrease through the 
early morning hours. Therefore the flash flood watch will be 
allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
359 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Thunderstorms...Heavy Rain...and Possible Flash Flooding Ahead...

Total Precipitable Water (TPW) values are running 150 to 170% of
average over southern Colorado.  These are the highest values I've
seen in the past 4 nights.  Dewpoints are equally impressive with
widespread 60s across the plains and even 50s in the high valleys at
Alamosa and Salida.  It's sticky out there.  The Monsoon is well
entrenched and the moisture is deep.  Models are forecasting plenty
of CAPE for storms today. High res models show a lot of convection
firing over southern Colorado in the afternoon, congealing into an
MCS and continuing east to southeast across the plains through the
evening and overnight hours. Big QPF bull's-eyes are being forecast
by all models in varying locations.  Can't be exactly sure where the
greatest amounts will fall.  But the point is...somebody is going to
get a lot of rain.  Considering our burn scar sensitivity to heavy
rain and the slow moving MCS expected to move across our plains
tonight, will go with a Flash Flood Watch for the eastern mountains
and plains from 21z this afternoon to 09z Thursday morning.
Southeast Colorado seems to be the target for the heaviest rain this
go around.  So, while we will have a Flash Flood Watch out,
surrounding offices likely will not, at least at this time.  This is
per collaboration with surrounding forecast offices early this
morning.

Additionally, there will be enough CAPE out there today (maybe 1500
j/kg) and enough shear for the possibility of a few severe storms
across the plains today.  The air aloft is pretty warm due to the
monsoon nature of the airmass but the high CAPE may compensate
enough to produce a few 1 inch hailers and 60+ mph winds. An active
day ahead!

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Upcoming locally heavy rainfall will bring the potential for flash
flooding...

Upper ridge will be quasi-stationary across the southwest and south
central US, with the moisture rich monsoon plume over the central
Rockies through the rest of this week. This means widespread daily
showers and storms, first developing across the higher terrain and
then spreading into the adjacent high valleys and eastern plains.
Models have rain chances continuing into and through the overnight
as well. With the relatively weak flow aloft, and probable
development of MCS's, areas of heavy rain totals and potential flash
flooding will occur, especially across urban areas and burn scars.
There may be a few marginally severe storms during this time period,
and temperatures will be below seasonal norms, with abundant cloud
cover.

Through the weekend and early next week, trough across the eastern
US will push the upper ridge farther west.  Scattered afternoon and
evening showers and storms will be the rule, and be more
concentrated across the higher terrain and adjacent locations.
Storms would be enhanced, at times, with difficult to time
shortwaves rippling through the flow. There will still be the
potential for locally heavy rain totals and flash flooding, again
primarily across urban areas and burn scars. Temperatures will
remain below seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
and spread east across the plains through the evening and overnight
hours tonight.  Initial convection will develop over the mountains
between 11 am and 1 pm, becoming scattered by 3 pm and then becoming
widespread across the plains after that through the evening.  The
western mountains and valleys will see less activity today than
locations farther east.  Generally VFR through 11 am but then
conditions deteriorating through the afternoon and evening to
scattered then widespread MVFR, IFR and LIFR conditions, especially
along and east of the mountains. All 3 terminals, KALS, KCOS,
KPUB, will see a chance of storms today, generally beginning
around 20z. KALS likely has the least chance of storms today while
KCOS and KPUB have much better chances. A stormy monsoon
afternoon and evening ahead.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through late
tonight for COZ072>089-093>099.

&&

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
939 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-270345-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
939 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will persist across the region
overnight, especially over the mountains. Lightning, gusty winds
to 40 mph and brief heavy rainfall will be the main storm threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Increased thunderstorm activity and coverage remains on tap
for Wednesday through Friday. Thunderstorm chances are then
expected to slowly taper off and retreat to the higher terrain
once again through the weekend and into early next week. Any
storms that develop may produce gusty winds, heavy rainfall and
lightning.

There will also be an increased concern for the potential of
flash flooding in the Wedensday through Friday timeframe,
especially across burn scars, urban areas and other areas near
the higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed tonight.

10/77