Areal Flood Advisory 152, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

736 
WGUS81 KPHI 012043
FLSPHI

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

NJC037-PAC089-012215-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.Y.0152.000000T0000Z-170801T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sussex NJ-Monroe PA-
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL SUSSEX AND MONROE
COUNTIES...

At 440 PM EDT, The heavy rain that resulted in 1 to 2 inches of rain 
has tapered off, but additional showers and thunderstorms are 
possible into this evening, and any additional rain could result in 
continued minor flooding. 

Some locations that could experience flooding include...
Mount Pocono, East Stroudsburg, Bushkill, Wind Gap, Stormville,
Brodheadsville, Kunkletown, Werry Lake, Pocono Pines, Gilbert, Pocono
Raceway, Delaware Water Gap, Skytop, Tannersville, Mountainhome,
Alpine Mountain, Rossland, Long Pond, Hernyville and Kresgeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 4101 7487 4108 7496 4104 7503 4099 7513
      4097 7512 4095 7515 4093 7522 4086 7529
      4082 7539 4081 7547 4095 7557 4099 7550
      4109 7561 4125 7525 4125 7513

$$

MPS

605 
WGUS81 KPHI 012159
FLSPHI

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
559 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

NJC037-PAC089-012208-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.Y.0152.000000T0000Z-170801T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sussex NJ-Monroe PA-
559 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL SUSSEX AND
MONROE COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended, and flooding is no longer expected to pose
a threat.

LAT...LON 4101 7487 4108 7496 4104 7503 4099 7513
      4097 7512 4095 7515 4093 7522 4086 7529
      4082 7539 4081 7547 4095 7557 4099 7550
      4109 7561 4125 7525 4125 7513

$$

MPS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1249 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today, moving offshore
through Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday
and move through the region on Saturday. High pressure will build in
for the end of the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM ESTF: Minor adjustments to temps/dews. Temps raised a tad
for PNE. Raised pops 10% from I95 west. 12z/1 GFS/NAM guidance
showing too much KI and asstd instability to ignore in a non capped
environment. Where activity occurs is a function of convergence
and low lvl dewpoint pooling. Also changed wording to coverage...ie
scattered or isolated instead of chance. Finally, added the
possibilityof heavy rain since any showers will be very slow
moving as witnessed this morning in the Apps to our west. It
wont surprise to see isolated heavy showers vcnty ACY and Ocean
counties this aftn and southern Sussex County DE but dont have
anything there yet.

First cells on the ridge line where cu formed first against cooler
non cu environment.

Per modeling NAM, HRRRX and NSSL WRF... most organized convection
should be near and north of I80.

Highs today around 90, except near the coast and in the higher
terrain of the Poconos and NW NJ where highs will be in the 80s.
Highs about 5 degrees above normal.

PWAT started 1.1" this morning and should grow to 1.4" late
today.

Tonight...Moisture advection during today will help to limit
radiational cooling overnight. Otherwise, expect similar
conditions tonight to what we have seen the last few nights.
Relatively weak pressure gradient should result in light and
variable winds once the sea breeze dissipates. Temperatures
should drop off into the 60s across the region, except within
the urban corridor, where lows in the lower 70s are forecast.
330PM fcst temps/dews/winds are already posted in the 1230PM
product. Mins tonight 1 to 7 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Leftover boundary reemerges near I80 in the afternoon and
probably forces increased convection as compared to this
afternoon. TT in the lower 50s combined with increased 0-6Km
shear...still only 25 kt, but possibly enough to allow not only
slow moving gully washers in 1.5" PWAT (see NAM for max qpf
bullseyes- i am not seeing convective qpf be much greater than
what the nam is advertising...ie when i see NAM qpf bullseyes,
I sort of know what to expect on max qpf though placement or
timing might be in error), but also isolated small hailers and
G35-40kt. New 330PM fcst using the 12z/1 GFS/NAM 50 50 blended
mos is posted in the 1230PM fcst.

So...a very warm humid day. Max temps temps 1 to 6F above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure pushes
eastward and moves offshore through Thursday. For the most part
this will be a period of quiet weather. However, a surface
trough develops across our region and moves very little over the
week. The trough, combined with a few shortwaves moving through
the area this week, will be a focus for convection as we should
have substantial daytime heating with sufficient surface
instability. The trough will be situated more across the western
portions of our area and that is where the higher POPs are with
lower (or no) POPs across our southern and eastern zones. Weak
shear does not provide confidence that we will have severe
storms across the region but some may contain gusty winds as
they roll through. Additionally, PWATs will increase to around
1.5 inches so anything that develops could have a brief heavy
downpour with it.

Friday and Saturday...The cold front is still slated to move through
the region late this week, with the models leaning towards late
Friday and Saturday. With the warm, moist air over the region,
it will be more humid on Friday. A good chance for some showers
and thunderstorms across the region as the front rolls through
with clearing expected from northwest to southeast through
Saturday.

Sunday...The cold front pushes further offshore and we should see
clearing occur and fairly nice summer day as high pressure moves
across the region. The front slows down and may stall just to the
south of our area but looks like it may be far enough away that we
remain dry across the entire forecast area.

Monday...The high moves offshore and to the east of the region.
Another low pressure system develops across the midwest and starts
to track eastward. A warm front associated with this low may start
to move northward into our area late on Monday. Lots of uncertainty
this far out so will keep the mention of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR. Sct to possibly briefly broken clouds aoa
5000 ft this afternoon. Light west wind except sea breezes coast.
Small chance isolated showers and thunderstorms and asstd brief
MVFR conditions vicinity KABE, KRDG, KTTN, KPNE, KPHL after
19Z.

Tonight...VFR. Light wind. Patchy MVFR fog may develop after 06Z
outside of the urban corridor. At this point, the TAF sites with
the highest risk of fog development are KABE, KRDG, and KMIV.

Wednesday...VFR. Light south to southwest flow. Scattered afternoon/
evening thunderstorms are expected sub- VFR conditions
possible, mainly from KPHL and points north and west.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are
expected. South to southwest winds around 10 knots or less,
around 10 to 15 knots at KACY on Thursday and Friday. A chance
for afternoon/evening showers or thunderstorms each day with
sub-VFR conditions possible, mainly from KPHL and points north
and west. Early morning fog possible Thursday and Friday at
KABE/KRDG.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible with a cold frontal passage, diminishing from northwest to
southeast. West winds around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots during
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will stay below small craft advisory conditions
through Wednesday. A few gusts around 15 kt are possible this
afternoon across the northern NJ Atlantic coastal waters.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday morning...Sub-small craft advisory
conditions are expected to continue through this period.

Friday afternoon through Friday night...Gusty south winds Friday may
near 25 knots, especially northern New Jersey coastal waters.

Saturday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions are expected. Winds
may become gusty during the afternoon and near 25 knots.

Rip Currents...
Conferenced with our beach patrols at 1015AM and this together
with our local algorithms and the ACY Beach Cam has prompted us
to lower the RC risk to LOW. That does not mean NO risk. Please
for safety sake... swim in the presence of lifeguards,
especially if you're a weak swimmer or somehow impaired.

Wednesday: Currently looking at LOW risk. Again LOW does not
mean NO risk. SE swell of 1-2 ft at 8 seconds should persist
with again a southerly afternoon flow, maybe slightly stronger
but still not imposing.

Long range: we'll take a look during mid afternoon at early
next week when an non tropical low approaches from the west.

AWARENESS:

We cannot overemphasize the danger of swimming alone, at
unguarded areas. Too risky, especially for weaker swimmers.
Many of us may overestimate our swimming ability. Additionally,
often bystanders are weaker and cannot save a distressed swimmer,
especially without a flotation device. This is what lifeguards
are about...your safety, and rescues if within their sight.

One other note: On-going developing UDEL research finds that
surf zone injuries caused by unexpected wave related faceplants
onto the beach are significant (wave knock down onto the hard
beach floor). We dont often hear about these...but some of these
injuries can be a lifetime disability...spinal cord. The point:

When leaving the surf zone for the beach blanket- chair...dont
turn your back completely to the water. Edge out with an eye on
the waves still crashing behind you.

It appears in this UDEL research that steep reflective beaches
promotes unexpected wave injuries. Percent of injuries ...
wading 40%
body surfing 2%
body boarding 21%

Twice as many males as females are injured...and interestingly
enough there is a 6 to 1 ratio of inland beach visitors being
injured as compared to the locals.

The ocean is a playland but the power of water needs respect.
Thank you for reading.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The July CLM's were run and posted at 443AM and no surprises
from what was posted the last several days.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Drag 1249
Short Term...Drag 1249
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Meola 1249
Marine...Drag/Meola 1249
Climate...

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1037 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-021445-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
1037 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania,
northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-016>023-027-PAZ070-071-
021445-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Western Monmouth-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
1037 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-021445-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
1037 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-021445-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1037 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

..update to drop the moderate risk for the formation of dangerous
rip currents..