Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
540 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
More rain is expected today ahead of a cold front. More seasonable
temperatures return by Friday. A wintry mix is possible over the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A predawn update was issued to adjust POPs and QPF, mainly over
areas north of Pittsburgh where training showers will increase
rain amounts. Used numbers close to RFC guidance.

Previous...
The next cold front will keep in the risk for showers
throughout the day, with the best chance coming during the
afternoon, as the boundary approaches. The front will barrel
through late this afternoon, so the PoP forecast has been created
in conjunction with FROPA. Its not completely out of the question
that a rumble of thunder is possible along the boundary. The main
concern will be strong winds ahead of and along the front. A
strong low level jet will remain over the area all day. There is
the potential for these stronger winds to mix down to the surface,
however, the greatest threat for advisory level winds will remain
over the higher elevations, as the region remains in the warm
sector. Have increased wind gusts for the entire area today.
Temperatures have also been increased.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The front will rush through this evening, bringing a quick end to
the rain, and also ushering in a much colder air mass.

High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes behind the
front, keeping the area dry on Friday. This feature will play a
crucial role in determining the weather type for the weekend. As
of now, confidence is increasing for the existence of a wintry
mix to occur on Saturday over at least the southern half of the
forecast area. There is, however, large uncertainty in the
northward extent of the precipitation and warm air on Saturday,
thus a blend of model data was used. Sufficient cold air damming
should result in freezing rain to occur, with the largest ice
accumulation amounts progged over Garrett and Tucker Counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Large operational model differences on what happens to the front
Saturday night and Sunday, but focusing more on Ensemble data, the
boundary should be shoved well to the south on Sunday. High
pressure will build in behind the front with the next system
progged for later on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR to local IFR and periodic showers are expected to continue
today as a cold front slides toward the area. The front is
progged for a late afternoon/early evening passage with a wind
shift to the W.

LLWS potential will continue until increased mixing results in
S-SW surface gusts near 30 kt after daybreak.

.OUTLOOK...
Periodic restrictions are expected through early next week as a
series of disturbances cross the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
503 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-122215-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-MUSKINGUM-
GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-
CLARION-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-
WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-
503 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ510>514-122215-
GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-
RIDGES OF EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-PRESTON-
EASTERN PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-EASTERN TUCKER-
503 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIDGE
TOPS. WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS, NECESSITATING AN
ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.