Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

394 
WGUS71 KPBZ 121638
FFSPBZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1138 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

PAC005-019-031-065-121648-
/O.CAN.KPBZ.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson PA-Armstrong PA-Butler PA-Clarion PA-
1138 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR JEFFERSON...NORTHERN ARMSTRONG...
BUTLER AND CLARION COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4104 7922 4085 7970 4086 8016 4101 8016
      4117 8000 4117 7971 4119 7967 4125 7965
      4128 7960 4132 7960 4134 7948 4139 7948
      4139 7940 4142 7940 4143 7935 4143 7921

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
843 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
More rain is expected today ahead of a cold front. More seasonable
temperatures return by Friday. A wintry mix is possible over the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Issued a Flash Flood Watch earlier due to concerns about training
showers and embedded convection across the northern counties.
HRRR/RAP were showing 1 to 1.5 inch rainfall totals over a few
hours which are starting to bear out over Mercer and Venango
Counties. Will need to continue to watch rainfall totals through
the afternoon, as another round of enhanced rain is possible with
the frontal passage later today. Cannot rule out a southward
expansion of the watch. Will also need to monitor wind speeds.
While there has been no indication of the strong low-level jet
mixing down along the convective line, the ridges will need to be
checked for possible advisory-level gusts later today. Have
freshened up PoPs and QPF grids based on radar trends and RFC
guidance.

Previous...
The next cold front will keep in the risk for showers
throughout the day, with the best chance coming during the
afternoon, as the boundary approaches. The front will barrel
through late this afternoon, so the PoP forecast has been created
in conjunction with FROPA. Its not completely out of the question
that a rumble of thunder is possible along the boundary. The main
concern will be strong winds ahead of and along the front. A
strong low level jet will remain over the area all day. There is
the potential for these stronger winds to mix down to the surface,
however, the greatest threat for advisory level winds will remain
over the higher elevations, as the region remains in the warm
sector. Have increased wind gusts for the entire area today.
Temperatures have also been increased.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The front will rush through this evening, bringing a quick end to
the rain, and also ushering in a much colder air mass.

High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes behind the
front, keeping the area dry on Friday. This feature will play a
crucial role in determining the weather type for the weekend. As
of now, confidence is increasing for the existence of a wintry
mix to occur on Saturday over at least the southern half of the
forecast area. There is, however, large uncertainty in the
northward extent of the precipitation and warm air on Saturday,
thus a blend of model data was used. Sufficient cold air damming
should result in freezing rain to occur, with the largest ice
accumulation amounts progged over Garrett and Tucker Counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Large operational model differences on what happens to the front
Saturday night and Sunday, but focusing more on Ensemble data, the
boundary should be shoved well to the south on Sunday. High
pressure will build in behind the front with the next system
progged for later on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR to local IFR and periodic showers are expected to continue
today as a cold front slides toward the area. The front is
progged for a late afternoon/early evening passage with a wind
shift to the W.

LLWS potential will continue until increased mixing results in
S-SW surface gusts near 30 kt after daybreak.

.OUTLOOK...
Periodic restrictions are expected through early next week as a
series of disturbances cross the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR OHZ039>041.
PA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR PAZ007>009-013>015-
     020.
WV...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

OHZ039>041-PAZ007>009-013>015-020-131430-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-
CLARION-BEAVER-
919 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ016-021>023-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-
012-021-509-131430-
COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-
HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
919 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ510>514-131430-
GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-
RIDGES OF EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-PRESTON-
EASTERN PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-EASTERN TUCKER-
919 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIDGE
TOPS. WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS, NECESSITATING AN
ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
930 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      STONEBORO               41.34N  80.11W
01/12/2017                   MERCER             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOUSE FLOODED

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1700222