Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Paducah, KY

March 1, 20175 counties in Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 1, 2017, 6:11 AM CST for 5 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 1, 2017, 6:11 AM CST (12:11 UTC)
Expired: Mar 1, 2017, 6:48 AM CST
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 80.0 mph

Counties Christian County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Feb 28, 8:29 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	12 hr
Mar 1, 3:03 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 694 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 842 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 82 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 361 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 344 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.6
Supercell composite: 9.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 1, 5:44 AM CST, 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 5:44 AM CST, 27 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
544 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Above average confidence in the long term due to decent model
agreement.

With the approach and passage of a cold front this morning, showers
and thunderstorms are expected to re-develop just prior to frontal
passage, with a few storms possibly becoming severe. Thankfully
synoptic parameters are not quite as impressive as they were Tuesday
afternoon/evening and early this morning, so the current thinking is
damaging winds and possibly large hail will be the primary hazards,
however a QLCS type tornado cannot be ruled out.

Convective activity will diminish from west to east this morning
with with almost all precipitation out of our CWA by midday. Beyond
that high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep
the region dry through the end of the short term period.

With the exception of today's highs which will be early,
temperatures stay within a few degrees of normal through the short
term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry through Sunday.

Precipitation chances begin to increase from the west Sunday night
into Monday with the approach of a cold front out of the plains.
Models still not in good agreement on available instability ahead of
the approaching cold front so will only mention slight chances for
thunder Monday evening. Late Monday night into Tuesday morning
precipitation chances will diminish quickly from west to east in the
wake of the front.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

MVFR/CIGS and TSRA ending from west to east this morning with the
passage of a cold front. Westerly winds gusting to 28-30 knots
will veer around to the northwest and decrease to AOB 10 knots
around 23Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ083-086-087-
     089>091-093-094.

MO...None.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for KYZ004-005-007-
     010-011-013>016-018>021.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 1, 3:37 AM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
337 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-021000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
337 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

...a few severe thunderstorms are possible this morning...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms...some possibly severe this morning. Damaging winds
and large hail will be the primary hazards, however a tornado or
two is not out of the question.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few thunderstorms are possible Monday evening. Locally heavy
rainfall and lightning will be the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this morning.

JP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 1, 5:57 AM CST, 14 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 1, 5:58 AM CST, 13 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 1, 5:59 AM CST, 12 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 1, 6:02 AM CST, 9 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 1, 6:04 AM CST, 7 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 1, 6:10 AM CST, 1 minute before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 28, 9:59 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Calloway, Graves, Marshall	46 min
Feb 28, 10:12 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway, Graves, Marshall	33 min
Feb 28, 10:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Graves	35 min
Feb 28, 10:43 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Calloway	9 min
Feb 28, 10:49 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Trigg	26 min
Feb 28, 10:56 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Calloway	22 min
Feb 28, 11:12 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Christian, Hopkins, Trigg	33 min
Feb 28, 11:16 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Trigg	29 min
Feb 28, 11:43 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Christian	32 min
Mar 1, 12:13 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Todd	21 min
Mar 1, 12:52 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Daviess, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg	23 min
Mar 1, 4:50 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard	25 min
Mar 1, 4:53 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman	37 min
Mar 1, 5:03 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Webster	42 min
Mar 1, 5:06 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Livingston, McCracken, Marshall	24 min
Mar 1, 5:18 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Crittenden, Daviess, Henderson, Hopkins, Livingston and 4 more	57 min
Mar 1, 5:21 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway, Graves, Lyon, Marshall, Trigg	24 min
Mar 1, 5:27 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Crittenden, Livingston, Lyon, Marshall	33 min
Mar 1, 5:40 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Daviess, McLean, Muhlenberg	50 min
Mar 1, 5:44 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Crittenden, Hopkins, Lyon and 2 more	31 min
Feb 28, 7:06 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jefferson	24 min
Feb 28, 7:54 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Wayne	36 min
Feb 28, 8:07 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	PAH	Jackson	23 min
Feb 28, 8:21 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	PAH	Jackson, Perry	27 min
Feb 28, 8:39 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Perry	36 min
Feb 28, 8:59 PM CST	Tornado Warning Considerable damage threat	PAH	Franklin, Hamilton, Jefferson	46 min
Feb 28, 9:24 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Edwards, Hamilton, Wayne, White	36 min
Feb 28, 9:52 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Edwards, Wabash, Wayne, White	23 min
Feb 28, 9:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jackson, Union	32 min
Feb 28, 10:11 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	PAH	Edwards, Wabash, White	34 min
Feb 28, 10:30 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	PAH	Jackson	30 min
Feb 28, 10:34 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Williamson	26 min
Feb 28, 10:43 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Franklin, Williamson	32 min
Feb 28, 10:54 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Hamilton, Saline, Williamson	36 min
Feb 28, 11:21 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Gallatin, Hamilton, Saline, White	24 min
Mar 1, 2:54 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jackson, Perry	36 min
Mar 1, 3:03 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Edwards, Wabash, Wayne	42 min
Mar 1, 4:06 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Jackson	24 min
Mar 1, 4:21 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Union	24 min
Mar 1, 4:33 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Saline, Williamson	27 min
Mar 1, 4:39 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Saline, Williamson	36 min
Mar 1, 4:44 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Pope	46 min
Feb 28, 7:27 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Perry	48 min
Feb 28, 7:40 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Perry	35 min
Feb 28, 8:13 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carter, Wayne	29 min
Feb 28, 9:32 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau	28 min
Feb 28, 9:38 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau	37 min
Mar 1, 3:22 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Butler, Carter, Ripley, Wayne	53 min
Mar 1, 3:44 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Perry	46 min
Mar 1, 3:49 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Perry	26 min
Mar 1, 4:01 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau	29 min
Mar 1, 4:05 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Stoddard	25 min
Mar 1, 4:26 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi, New Madrid, Scott, Stoddard	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.