Severe Thunderstorm Warning 350, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
223 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Main focus was on the severe weather and heavy rain potential
through Saturday.

Now through 7 pm this evening, isolated to scattered discrete
supercells are expected to continue to move northeast across parts
of western north Texas, western Oklahoma, central Oklahoma, and
northern Oklahoma, mainly near and just southeast of a low level
cloud shield/differential heating boundary that extended from near
Clinton to Enid to Ponca City as of 215 pm. The Lawton, Oklahoma
City, and Stillwater areas could be affected by these dangerous
storms in the next few hours. These storms will continue to produce
giant hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Tornado potential will
only increase over the next few hours as low level shear increases.
The greatest potential for tornadoes may be shifting farther south
and east than previously forecast.

Across far northwestern Oklahoma now through 7 pm this evening,
additional discrete supercells may form with giant hail, tornadoes,
and damaging winds. Not sure that this activity will be more robust
compared to activity near the line mentioned due to more cloud cover
to limit destabilization.

Capping may be too strong for storm development south of a Knox
City, Texas to Wichita Falls to Ada line now through 7 pm this
evening.

Severe storms will remain possible this evening as they move
east. Models show the area of storm development in NW OK developing
down towards central OK as they move east tonight. In addition to
large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes possible, heavy rain that
could produce flash flooding in some locations will also be a
concern.

On Friday... Upper low and shortwave rotating around the low will
affect the region with a cold front moving across the area.
Widespread storms are expected to develop Friday afternoon and
continue into Friday night. Severe storms will be possible once
again. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will likely
be higher Friday than today across a larger area. 3-5 inches of
rain with locally higher amounts will be possible by Saturday
morning. With the heavy rain and flash flood potential, a Flood
Watch was issued earlier today for all but Harper county in NW OK.
It is in effect from 7 PM this evening through 7 AM Saturday. Models
show the rain shifting east and south of the area Saturday as the
front moves out of the area and the upper low lifts NE.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the area Sunday
night and continue into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  77  55  71 /  70  70  90  20
Hobart OK         64  81  53  73 /  40  90  70  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  84  58  76 /  60  70  80  20
Gage OK           57  75  47  69 /  40  50  30   0
Ponca City OK     66  78  54  69 /  70  70  80  10
Durant OK         70  84  66  76 /  60  50  80  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning
     for OKZ005>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

06/25

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
453 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

OKZ004-005-010-182230-
Woodward OK-Harper OK-Woods OK-
453 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR north central Woodward...eastern
Harper and northwestern Woods Counties Until 530 PM CDT...

AT 450 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast of
Fort Supply, moving northeast at 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9889 3660 9920 3660 9970 3700 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 217DEG 46KT 3668 9950

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TORNADO          5 S WAYNOKA             36.51N 98.88W
05/18/2017                   WOODS              OK   STORM CHASER

&&

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
509 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

OKZ024-025-027>029-182245-
Grady OK-Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
509 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Grady...Oklahoma...
eastern Canadian...Cleveland and northwestern McClain Counties Until
545 PM CDT...

AT 508 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
5 miles southwest of Piedmont to near Cole, moving northeast at 35
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Oklahoma City, Norman, western Edmond, Moore, Midwest City, Del City,
El Reno, Newcastle, Blanchard, Yukon, Bethany, Mustang, Choctaw, Warr
Acres, The Village, Noble, Tuttle, Piedmont, Slaughterville and
Spencer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 9760 3560 9795 3573 9751 3572 9749
      3549 9724 3517 9714 3514 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 239DEG 30KT 3558 9782 3511 9756

MAHALE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
522 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

OKZ004-005-009-010-014-182300-
Woodward OK-Roger Mills OK-Harper OK-Woods OK-Ellis OK-
522 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Woodward...northeastern
Roger Mills...eastern Harper...northwestern Woods and central Ellis
Counties Until 600 PM CDT...

AT 521 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
7 miles northeast of Selman to 5 miles southwest of Fort Supply to 9
miles southeast of Arnett, moving northeast at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9903 3671 9927 3640 9934 3616 9934
      3616 9938 3594 9938 3597 9977 3651 9980
      3700 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 236DEG 30KT 3686 9938 3653 9966 3601 9969

BRB