Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Norman, OK

863 
WGUS74 KOUN 182208
FFSOUN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
508 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

OKC011-015-039-149-190045-
/O.CON.KOUN.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-170519T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washita OK-Caddo OK-Custer OK-Blaine OK-
508 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN WASHITA...NORTHWESTERN CADDO...SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTIES...

At 507 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already 
fallen. Although rainfall is subsiding over the warned area, 
runoff may result in flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 9901 3520 9916 3531 9912 3570 9868
      3574 9842 3554 9840

$$

175 
WGUS74 KOUN 190031
FFSOUN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
731 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

OKC011-015-039-149-190040-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-170519T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washita OK-Caddo OK-Custer OK-Blaine OK-
731 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHITA...NORTHWESTERN
CADDO...SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER AND SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3520 9901 3520 9916 3531 9912 3570 9868
      3574 9842 3554 9840

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
223 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Main focus was on the severe weather and heavy rain potential
through Saturday.

Now through 7 pm this evening, isolated to scattered discrete
supercells are expected to continue to move northeast across parts
of western north Texas, western Oklahoma, central Oklahoma, and
northern Oklahoma, mainly near and just southeast of a low level
cloud shield/differential heating boundary that extended from near
Clinton to Enid to Ponca City as of 215 pm. The Lawton, Oklahoma
City, and Stillwater areas could be affected by these dangerous
storms in the next few hours. These storms will continue to produce
giant hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Tornado potential will
only increase over the next few hours as low level shear increases.
The greatest potential for tornadoes may be shifting farther south
and east than previously forecast.

Across far northwestern Oklahoma now through 7 pm this evening,
additional discrete supercells may form with giant hail, tornadoes,
and damaging winds. Not sure that this activity will be more robust
compared to activity near the line mentioned due to more cloud cover
to limit destabilization.

Capping may be too strong for storm development south of a Knox
City, Texas to Wichita Falls to Ada line now through 7 pm this
evening.

Severe storms will remain possible this evening as they move
east. Models show the area of storm development in NW OK developing
down towards central OK as they move east tonight. In addition to
large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes possible, heavy rain that
could produce flash flooding in some locations will also be a
concern.

On Friday... Upper low and shortwave rotating around the low will
affect the region with a cold front moving across the area.
Widespread storms are expected to develop Friday afternoon and
continue into Friday night. Severe storms will be possible once
again. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will likely
be higher Friday than today across a larger area. 3-5 inches of
rain with locally higher amounts will be possible by Saturday
morning. With the heavy rain and flash flood potential, a Flood
Watch was issued earlier today for all but Harper county in NW OK.
It is in effect from 7 PM this evening through 7 AM Saturday. Models
show the rain shifting east and south of the area Saturday as the
front moves out of the area and the upper low lifts NE.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the area Sunday
night and continue into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  77  55  71 /  70  70  90  20
Hobart OK         64  81  53  73 /  40  90  70  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  84  58  76 /  60  70  80  20
Gage OK           57  75  47  69 /  40  50  30   0
Ponca City OK     66  78  54  69 /  70  70  80  10
Durant OK         70  84  66  76 /  60  50  80  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning
     for OKZ005>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

06/25

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1158 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a high risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening in parts of Oklahoma.

Location...
The high risk is over much of northwest Oklahoma, east of a
Buffalo to Leedey line and north of a Leedey to Kingfisher to
Blackwell line. Locations in the high risk area include
Woodward...Alva...Watonga...Enid...Medford...and Cherokee.
Moderate to enhanced risk areas surround the high risk area
across the rest of Oklahoma into western north Texas.

Timing...
Mainly 1 PM until 10 PM.

Impacts...
Tornadoes...possibly strong and long-tracked...
Hail up to softball size...
Damaging winds 70 to 80 mph...

Discussion...
A warm and very unstable airmass is in place across most of
Oklahoma, east of a dryline. As heating continues and an upper
level storm slowly approaches, severe storms are expected to
develop by early afternoon. Several models indicate the first
storms will form across southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas.

Instability and deep layer shear will support supercell
thunderstorms which will have the potential to produce very large
hail, damaging winds, and some tornadoes. Storms may organize into
lines or clusters by late afternoon or this evening as they track
northeast. Storms should begin to weaken by late evening.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
western and central Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas
should prepare for severe weather operations this afternoon
and evening.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Locally heavy rainfall and flooding may occur with storms this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Friday when
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible.
Mainly dry weather is expected Sunday and Monday. Thunderstorm
chances will increase around Tuesday of next week.

.Heavy Rainfall...
There is a potential for excessive rainfall Friday until Saturday
morning, particularly over portions of central into southwest
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas. If you live in
an area that is prone to flash flooding, pay attention to the
forecasts and warnings later this week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

MBS/BT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
410 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

OKZ005>007-182145-
Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-Grant OK-
410 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northern Alfalfa...northeastern
Woods and northwestern Grant Counties Until 445 PM CDT...

AT 408 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest of
Ingersoll, moving northeast at 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Alva, Cherokee, Burlington, Manchester, Amorita, Byron, Lambert,
Ingersoll, Great Salt Plains Lake, Driftwood, Capron and Waldron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 9824 3668 9844 3686 9883 3700 9863
      3700 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 232DEG 47KT 3683 9849

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             WEATHERFORD             35.53N 98.70W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TORNADO          3 W CHESTER             36.22N 98.97W
05/18/2017                   WOODWARD           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

RBARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
431 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             DAVIDSON                34.24N 99.08W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       TILLMAN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             1 N CORDELL             35.31N 98.99W
05/18/2017  E2.00 INCH       WASHITA            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TORNADO          8 N CHESTER             36.34N 98.92W
05/18/2017                   MAJOR              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MBS