Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
301 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Numerous thunderstorms have moved into our western counties,
including a few likely severe storms with radar indicating large
hail. Afternoon analysis indicates dew points around 60, capes
near 1500 J/kg, and low level SRH just over 200. That is enough to
get some rotation within the individual storms, which supports
large hail and localized damaging winds. Although the potential
for tornadoes is relatively low, we will need to monitor these
rotating storms closely for localized spin up potential. These
thunderstorms will continue to move eastward across the Mid STate
through the next few hours. HRRR model indicates additional
thunderstorms, currently forming farther west along the Ms River,
will consolidate into a line and sweep through this evening with
possible strong winds. Timing of this line is estimated to be at
CKV around 6 PM, BNA by 8 PM, and 10 PM for the Plateau.

Many areas will have more than 1 inch of rainfall through tonight,
with some locally heavier amounts possible. A few localized flash
flood warnings are possible.

A few showers will linger into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, upper
ridging will build in Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be
warm. Lingering cloudiness on Tuesday will only allow low to mid
70s, but more sun and rising heights Wednesday will allow highs
near 80.

A strengthening low pressure system over the Plains will bring our
next chance of thunderstorms by Thursday. This looks like another
potentially severe thunderstorm day as low level moisture and
southerly flow increases ahead of an approaches cold front.
Thunderstorms chances will stay in the forecast from Thursday
through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday look pretty good at this time. The next system
with more showers and storms is set to roll in next Monday or
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Numerous showers/storms will affect airports this TAF period
especially later this afternoon/evening. MVFR cigs/vis anticipated
with lower categories and amendments possible. Gusty south to
southwest winds this afternoon will weaken and veer to
west/northwest late in the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      58  72  52  78  58 / 100  10  10   0  20
Clarksville    55  69  52  74  57 /  90  10  10  10  20
Crossville     57  69  50  74  55 /  90  20  10   0  10
Columbia       59  72  52  78  58 / 100  10  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   59  73  52  79  58 / 100  10  10  20  10
Waverly        56  70  52  76  59 /  90  10  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
521 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
521 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across all of Middle Tennessee. The greatest chance for
severe storms however remains along and west of I-65. Damaging
straight line winds and hail are the main threats. An isolated
brief tornado is possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another round of strong to severe storms is possible in Middle
Tennessee on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon and again on
Thursday.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
443 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE NASHVILLE         36.24N  86.75W
03/27/2017                   DAVIDSON           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE FELL ON A HOUSE ON LEMONT DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700339

MR3

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<body>
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
501 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     NASHVILLE               36.17N  86.78W
03/27/2017  M61 MPH          DAVIDSON           TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            OCCURRED AT WSMV-TV WEST OF DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700341

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
502 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW NASHVILLE          36.15N  86.81W
03/27/2017                   DAVIDSON           TN   TWITTER

            TSPOTTER REPORTS SHOWED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON WEST END
            NEAR THE VANDERBILT CAMPUS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700342

MR3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
502 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

TNZ010-011-031-033-034-272245-
Fentress TN-Overton TN-Pickett TN-Clay TN-Jackson TN-
502 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OVERTON...PICKETT...EASTERN
JACKSON...CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN FENTRESS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Livingston, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Celina, Gainesboro, Byrdstown, Whitleyville, Moss,
Crawford, Rickman, Dale Hollow Lake, Boles and Standing Stone State
Park.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3662 8501 3622 8512 3625 8544 3626 8543
      3626 8545 3628 8547 3628 8545 3630 8547
      3630 8550 3629 8549 3626 8551 3627 8570
      3662 8569
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 208DEG 34KT 3635 8545

Barnwell