Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
301 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Numerous thunderstorms have moved into our western counties,
including a few likely severe storms with radar indicating large
hail. Afternoon analysis indicates dew points around 60, capes
near 1500 J/kg, and low level SRH just over 200. That is enough to
get some rotation within the individual storms, which supports
large hail and localized damaging winds. Although the potential
for tornadoes is relatively low, we will need to monitor these
rotating storms closely for localized spin up potential. These
thunderstorms will continue to move eastward across the Mid STate
through the next few hours. HRRR model indicates additional
thunderstorms, currently forming farther west along the Ms River,
will consolidate into a line and sweep through this evening with
possible strong winds. Timing of this line is estimated to be at
CKV around 6 PM, BNA by 8 PM, and 10 PM for the Plateau.

Many areas will have more than 1 inch of rainfall through tonight,
with some locally heavier amounts possible. A few localized flash
flood warnings are possible.

A few showers will linger into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, upper
ridging will build in Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be
warm. Lingering cloudiness on Tuesday will only allow low to mid
70s, but more sun and rising heights Wednesday will allow highs
near 80.

A strengthening low pressure system over the Plains will bring our
next chance of thunderstorms by Thursday. This looks like another
potentially severe thunderstorm day as low level moisture and
southerly flow increases ahead of an approaches cold front.
Thunderstorms chances will stay in the forecast from Thursday
through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday look pretty good at this time. The next system
with more showers and storms is set to roll in next Monday or
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Numerous showers/storms will affect airports this TAF period
especially later this afternoon/evening. MVFR cigs/vis anticipated
with lower categories and amendments possible. Gusty south to
southwest winds this afternoon will weaken and veer to
west/northwest late in the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      58  72  52  78  58 / 100  10  10   0  20
Clarksville    55  69  52  74  57 /  90  10  10  10  20
Crossville     57  69  50  74  55 /  90  20  10   0  10
Columbia       59  72  52  78  58 / 100  10  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   59  73  52  79  58 / 100  10  10  20  10
Waverly        56  70  52  76  59 /  90  10  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
521 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
521 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across all of Middle Tennessee. The greatest chance for
severe storms however remains along and west of I-65. Damaging
straight line winds and hail are the main threats. An isolated
brief tornado is possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another round of strong to severe storms is possible in Middle
Tennessee on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon and again on
Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
143 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

TNZ005-271930-
Stewart TN-
143 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN STEWART COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

At 143 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Murray, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Land Between The Lakes.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3663 8779 3650 8805
      3652 8804 3653 8803 3657 8803 3663 8806
      3664 8806 3665 8807 3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 228DEG 25KT 3654 8820

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
313 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

TNZ006-007-025>027-057-059-060-272115-
Hickman TN-Robertson TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-
Maury TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-
313 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DAVIDSON...EASTERN
DICKSON...EASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN MAURY...WILLIAMSON...
CHEATHAM...NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

At 312 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Coopertown to Columbia. Movement was northeast
at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Columbia, Springfield, Dickson, Ashland City, Nashville,
Clarksville, Brentwood, Spring Hill, Greenbrier, Forest Hills, Oak
Hill, Coopertown, White Bluff, Belle Meade, Kingston Springs,
Thompson's Station, Pegram, Ridgetop and Burns.

A severe thunderstorm watch also remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT
for Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3573 8673 3568 8730 3644 8739 3664 8719
      3665 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 222DEG 36KT 3642 8714 3575 8713

Shamburger

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
314 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             7 N ETHRIDGE            35.42N  87.30W
03/27/2017  M0.75 INCH       LAWRENCE           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH WITH OCCASIONAL PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN
            SUMMERTOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700327

MR3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
317 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

TNZ005>007-023>026-272045-
Stewart TN-Robertson TN-Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-Cheatham TN-
Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
317 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKSON...
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN STEWART...NORTHWESTERN CHEATHAM...
HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS AND NORTHWESTERN ROBERTSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Clarksville to 9 miles northwest of Waverly.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Charlotte, Adams, Vanleer, Cedar
Hill, Cumberland City, Slayden, Cheatham Dam, Palmyra, Woodlawn,
Houston County Airport, Indian Mound and Cunningham.

A severe thunderstorm watch also remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT
for Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3614 8735 3615 8792 3622 8795 3632 8796
      3664 8757 3665 8687
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 253DEG 33KT 3666 8729 3618 8792

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
321 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

TNZ060-061-094-095-272115-
Lawrence TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-Marshall TN-
321 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MARSHALL...MAURY...
LAWRENCE AND GILES COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Columbia to Lexington. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Lewisburg, Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Spring Hill, Mount
Pleasant, Loretto, Ardmore, Cornersville, St. Joseph, Elkton, Minor
Hill, Ethridge, Lynnville, Culleoka, I-65 East Of Columbia,
Goodspring, Leoma, Westpoint and Frankewing.

A severe thunderstorm watch also remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT
for Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3501 8761 3504 8758 3511 8759 3547 8728
      3568 8730 3572 8682 3570 8677 3571 8669
      3526 8683 3499 8685
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 260DEG 28KT 3566 8709 3504 8729

Shamburger