Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
556 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rainfall occurred over a narrow east-to-west band extending
from Humphreys and Houston counties, to southern Davidson and
northern William counties, and then eastward to the Crossville and
Sparta area. Rainfall amounts in this band were commonly above two
inches, with some doppler estimated amounts between 4 and 6 inches
in areas Smyrna and Smithville. MesoWest data showed an overnight
rain total of 4.58 inches at Smyrna. Flood Advisories and five
River flood warnings were issued overnight.

The heavy rains occurred along and just south of a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary, and this boundary is expected to
remain parked through at least 14z, before starting to push
eastward later in the morning. As a result, additional localized
heavy rains will likely occur in vicinity of this boundary through
mid- morning, with the area for best rainfall potential
eventually focusing over our northern Cumberland Plateau counties.

As the cold front pulls eastward later today, and skies remain
cloudy over our area, expect temperatures over most northern
counties to hold steady or slowly fall during the day, and start
to gradually fall over southern areas by this afternoon.

Yet another shortwave brings another chance for showers tonight,
although rainfall is expected to be light and only amount to a few
hundredths at best.

Drying finally starts to kick in on Wednesday, as clouds gradually
decrease from the north. Highs on Wednesday may actually be a bit
warmer over our northern counties on Wednesday, as clouds are
likely to hold toughest over southern areas through the day.
Clouds continue to gradually decrease Wednesday night and by
Thursday we'll finally start to see some mostly sunny conditions
return to the Mid-State. Hallelujah!

Believe dry conditions will prevail Thursday through Saturday,
with seasonably cool daytime highs mainly in the middle 50s to
middle 60s and overnight lows in the 30s.

A cold front is forecast to sweep in next Sunday, as an upper
trough deepens over the Mississippi Valley and swings eastward.
Expect scattered showers to develop in our area Saturday night and
Sunday,then diminish from the west Sunday night and Monday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Poor flying weather today as a frontal boundary
across Middle Tennessee is providing the focus for showers and a
few storms. Even after the rain moves out of the area later this
morning, IFR ceilings will persist at least into the evening and
possibly overnight before conditions improve.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
552 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-081200-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
552 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall overnight has caused significant flooding along a
corridor that extends from Waverly, to Dickson, to Fairview, to
Brentwood and South Nashville, to Smyrna, to Watertown, to
Smithville, to Sparta, to Crossville. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5
inches are common in these areas. Flood waters will begin to
subside once rain exits the region later this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports are needed this morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
143 AM CST TUE NOV 7 2017

TNZ062>064-078-070830-
Cannon TN-Rutherford TN-De Kalb TN-Warren TN-
143 AM CST TUE NOV 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DE KALB...EAST CENTRAL
RUTHERFORD...NORTHERN WARREN AND CANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CST...

At 142 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Woodbury, moving east at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Smithville, Woodbury, Auburntown, Milton and Readyville.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3595 8566 3590 8565 3589 8567 3589 8565
      3587 8565 3586 8567 3585 8565 3583 8566
      3583 8568 3582 8567 3581 8565 3571 8565
      3578 8627 3596 8627 3595 8615 3596 8615
      3597 8609 3596 8602 3597 8602 3600 8565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 270DEG 40KT 3587 8619

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
219 AM CST TUE NOV 7 2017

TNZ078-080-070900-
Van Buren TN-Warren TN-
219 AM CST TUE NOV 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VAN BUREN AND CENTRAL WARREN
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CST...

At 219 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
McMinnville, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Spencer, Morrison and Fall Creek Falls State Park.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3568 8530 3557 8542 3555 8546 3554 8554
      3553 8555 3553 8563 3563 8592 3580 8586
      3571 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 286DEG 36KT 3570 8580

Rose

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
606 AM CST TUE NOV 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BELLE MEADE             36.10N  86.86W
11/06/2017                   DAVIDSON           TN   NWS OFFICE

            RICHLAND CREEK NEAR HARDING PLACE CRESTED IN MODERATE
            FLOOD STAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700819

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
612 AM CST TUE NOV 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N SMYRNA              36.01N  86.52W
11/07/2017  M5.82 INCH       RUTHERFORD         TN   AWOS

            SMYRNA AWOS MEASURED 5.82 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 6 PM
            MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700820

JACKSON