Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Omaha, NE

216 
WWUS53 KOAX 170102
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
802 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

NEC095-170115-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-170517T0115Z/
Jefferson NE-
802 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY...

At 801 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast of
Fairbury, or 20 miles west of Beatrice, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fairbury, Daykin, Endicott, Jansen, Harbine, Crystal Springs
Campground, Buckley Creek Recreational Area, Camp Jefferson,
Alexandria State Recreation Area, Rock Creek Station State Historical
Park and Cub Creek Recreational Area.

This includes Highway 136 in Nebraska between mile markers 141 and
166.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 9725 4009 9736 4029 9736 4035 9725
      4035 9714 4024 9691 4018 9691 4000 9707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 226DEG 45KT 4020 9712 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MEAD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
317 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

WV imagery this afternoon showing a deep longwave trof cutting
through the western CONUS with potent southern tier vort max
currently over southern CA/western AZ. At the surface...relatively
weak low pressure was centered in eastern CO with a stagnant
thermal boundary extending into eastern Neb then northern IA. A
second boundary/cold front was situated from central MN to
southwest SD. Daytime heating/influx of moisture has pushed
instability parameters to the extreme with MLCAPES 2500-3500J/kg
over the region.

A highly unstable environment will be in place to allow for
convective development in western KS this afternoon...which will
eventually reach the CWA early this evening. Expect updraft
initiation on nose of 8-9C/km low level lapse rates protruding into
moisture rich environment...promoting rapid storm development. All
this coincident to boundary layer theta-E convergence.

HRRR and RAP13 have been pretty consistent the last several runs
showing the cluster of western KS storms will cross into 0-3km bulk
shear of 40kt or so...forming into a QLCS. Complex is progged then
to quickly race along the Neb/KS border during the early evening
hours before crossing into southeastern Neb/extreme southwest IA.
Along with probable severe wind gusts(increasing layer differential
max theta-E)...an isolated tornado forming along the bowing line
segment cannot be ruled out.

Meanwhile farther north...narrow line of convection is progged to
fire later the afternoon along a stagnant surface boundary extending
from south-central Neb into west-central IA. Activity will expand
then in areal coverage mainly over northeast Neb/west-central IA
toward mid evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates topping moisture
rich boundary layer suggest severe hail producers are quite
probable.

In addition...a heavy rain threat will be in place as well tonight.
The last several runs of both NAM/GFS show continuity advertising a
high degree of precipitation efficiency consisting of deep warm
cloud layer/strong moist low level inflow...and 30-40 microbars of
omega coincident to PWS approaching 2"

Wednesday/Wednesday evening...core of southwest shortwave trof will
lift right over the CWA and bring wrap around precip mainly over the
northern CWA.

Precip chances continue Thursday afternoon through Friday associated
with a large and relatively slow moving upper low/several impulses
exiting the Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Precip chances continue into the early part of next weekend
accompanied by a noticeable cooling trend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Gusty south winds will continue this afternoon across eastern
Nebraska with scattered-broken clouds at around FL040.
Thunderstorms are expected to form to the west this afternoon
before moving into the area this evening. Short-term model
guidance remains in good agreement in suggesting that a bowing
line of storms will affect the Lincoln and Omaha areas between
about 01 and 04z. As such, a mention of strong wind gusts have
been included in the TAFs during that time frame. Otherwise,
expect episodic showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday
morning with the potential for more widespread MVFR ceilings
developing late tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
422 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-171130-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
422 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A highly unstable and moist environment will be in place to
promote severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon
before increasing in areal coverage through the evening. The
primary severe weather threat along and south of I-80 will be
damaging wind gusts with the potential for an isolated tornado.
For areas north of I-80...the main threat will be large hail and
damaging winds.

In addition...the possibility for heavy rainfall and localized
flooding is quite high in association with more intense
thunderstorms.

Even though the severe weather will likely come to a close around
midnight, the threat for flooding will continue with showers and
thunderstorms across the region later tonight.

Thunderstorms will also be possible again on Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

The chance of thunderstorms will extend into Wednesday evening and
again Thursday night through Saturday morning. Additional
thunderstorms are possible Monday into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will liklely be needed late this afternoon and
tonight.

Fobert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
726 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALLEY                  41.31N 96.35W
05/16/2017  M85 MPH          DOUGLAS            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            74KT MEASURED GUST AT OMAHA/VALLEY NWS

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALLEY                  41.31N 96.35W
05/16/2017                   DOUGLAS            NE   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL POWER POLES DOWN IN VALLEY

&&

KGROSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
737 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

NEZ067-068-170115-
Cass NE-Otoe NE-
737 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for NORTHWESTERN OTOE AND
SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elmwood, or 18 miles east of Lincoln, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Weeping Water, Elmwood, Murdock and Alvo.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4072 9632 4085 9646 4098 9634 4086 9614
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 214DEG 23KT 4084 9635

MEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
739 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W SHELBY              41.51N 95.53W
05/16/2017                   HARRISON           IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED

&&

DFOBERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
742 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

NEZ088-170115-
Jefferson NE-
742 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

At 741 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mahaska, or 20 miles northwest of Washington, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fairbury, Endicott, Jansen, Reynolds, Crystal Springs Campground,
Buckley Creek Recreational Area, Camp Jefferson and Rock Creek
Station State Historical Park.

This includes Highway 136 in Nebraska between mile markers 144 and
160.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4000 9735 4003 9737 4013 9737 4033 9719
      4013 9693 4000 9721
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 225DEG 64KT 4003 9732

MEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
747 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S HARLAN              41.62N 95.33W
05/16/2017  M60 MPH          SHELBY             IA   AWOS

            HARLAN AWOS

&&

DFOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
749 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HAIL             2 S EAGLE               40.79N 96.43W
05/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       CASS               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DFOBERT