River Flood Warning 2, NWS Omaha, NE

709 
WGUS83 KOAX 180215
FLSOAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
915 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for...

  Missouri River At Nebraska City affecting Fremont and Otoe Counties.

  Missouri River At Brownville affecting Atchison and Nemaha Counties.

  Missouri River At Rulo affecting Holt and Richardson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through areas where water covers the road.  The 
water depth may be too great to allow your vehicle to pass safely. 
Turn around...don't drown!

Additional information is available at:
http://www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=oax

&&

IAC071-NEC131-181715-
/O.EXT.KOAX.FL.W.0002.170519T1800Z-170520T1559Z/
/NEBN1.1.ER.170519T1800Z.170520T0000Z.170520T0959Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River At Nebraska City.
* from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning...or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At 9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.7 feet...or 2.3 feet below 
  flood stage.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Friday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 18.2 feet by Friday evening. The river 
  should fall back below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding begins.

&&

LAT...LON 4078 9587 4078 9572 4048 9554 4048 9580
      4074 9590                       

$$

MOC005-NEC127-181714-
/O.EXT.KOAX.FL.W.0003.170518T1200Z-170521T1900Z/
/BRON1.1.ER.170518T1200Z.170520T0600Z.170521T1300Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River At Brownville.
* from Thursday morning to Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At 8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 32.2 feet...or 0.8 feet below 
  flood stage.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage Thursday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 35.1 feet by early Saturday morning. The river
  should fall back below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 33.0 feet...Lowlands on both banks begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 9580 4048 9554 4026 9544 4026 9563
      4044 9574                       

$$

MOC087-NEC147-181714-
/O.EXT.KOAX.FL.W.0004.170519T2024Z-170521T1400Z/
/RULN1.1.ER.170519T2024Z.170520T1200Z.170521T0800Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River At Rulo.
* from Friday afternoon to Sunday morning...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.9 feet...or 2.1 feet below 
  flood stage.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 17.9 feet by Saturday morning. The river
  should fall back below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 17.0 feet...Agricultural lowlands along both sides of 
  the river begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 9563 4026 9544 3991 9501 3982 9503
      3997 9536                       

$$

BCM

246 
WGUS83 KOAX 181509
FLSOAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
1009 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for...

  Missouri River At Nebraska City affecting Fremont and Otoe 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through areas where water covers the road.  The 
water depth may be too great to allow your vehicle to pass safely. 
Turn around...don't drown!

Additional information is available at:
http://www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=oax

&&

IAC071-NEC131-181539-
/O.CAN.KOAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170520T1559Z/
/NEBN1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1009 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Missouri River At Nebraska City.
* At 10:00 AM Thursday the stage was 15.3 feet...or 2.7 feet below 
  flood stage.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 17.0 feet 
  early Saturday morning. Future rainfall could drive the river back 
  close to flood stage. Please monitor future forecasts for that
  possibility.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...The left bank overflows into some croplands.

&&

LAT...LON 4078 9587 4078 9572 4048 9554 4048 9580
      4074 9590                       

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
623 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed
May 17 2017

Forecast concerns during the short term will be timing and
location of showers and thunderstorms today and potential for
severe storms/additional rain amounts and more showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms early this morning should
lift north toward the SD border with a break as The closed low
pressure system over southeast CO/northeast NM/OK Panhandle tracks
into the region. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along with a chance for severe storms and
additional locally heavy rains.

The latest surface map has a front in eastern Nebraska to western
Kansas and surface low pressure moves northeast along the front
into eastern Nebraska this afternoon. The belt of stronger winds
aloft extends from OK northward into eastern Neb. 50-70m ht falls
were noted ahead of the h5 trough over CO. The shortrange models
all deepen this compact h5 low over southeast Neb/northern KS at
18Z...lifting it northward toward SUX by 00Z. The ribbon of 1 to
1.5 inches pwat is in place this morning remains high around 1 to
1.25 inches through 00Z then begins decreasing. Forecast sounding
show modest instability of 1000-2000j/kg mainly through 21Z and
bulk shear of 20 to 45kts. The pattern for low topped supercells
is more favorable to the east of our forecast area...however our
wind pattern and modest instability do point toward at least a
marginal to slight risk of strong to severe storms later this
morning through mid afternoon...with an enhanced risk over Iowa.
Due to the track of the closed low...all modes of severe weather
will be possible...although it should be more isolated than
Tuesday. Northeast Nebraska is in the slight risk for excessive
rainfall...where some 1 to 1.5 inch rains may fall especially
through 21Z.  Tonight the h5 low will be exiting the area.

Later tonight and most of Thursday should be dry. The next storm
system is already moving in for Thursday and and lasts into the
weekend. Instability is more limited...however there is strong
upper level jet support, mid-level frontogenesis and mid level
omega to support widespread/locally heavy rains into Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM
CDT Wed May 17 2017

Dry weather is forecast for Sunday however a shortwave in the
northwest flow brings wet weather into forecast for the rest of
the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Fairly complex weather pattern today with numerous thunderstorms
affecting the TAF site through the first 12 hours. IFR conditions
at KOFK, becoming MVFR through time. VFR at KLNK/KOMA. Seems there
might be a couple of rounds of storms, first round 14-17z. Second
round 19-23z. Winds shifting through the period as well resulting
in complicated group chnages.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...DeWald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
452 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ012-015-018-033-034-044-045-
051>053-066>068-078-088>093-180000-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Cedar-Thurston-Wayne-Cuming-Burt-Dodge-Washington-Saunders-
Douglas-Sarpy-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
452 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Showers and thunderstorms will continue on and off today. Some of
the storms could be severe especially from eastern and southeast
Nebraska into western Iowa from this morning into the afternoon.
All modes of severe weather will be possible (large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes) as the storm system tracks over
the forecast area. Locally heavy rain could fall in northeast
Nebraska where storms will reside longer. By tonight...the bulk
of the precipitation will have shifted out of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

The chance of thunderstorms will return Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible Monday
into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed for parts of eastern Nebraska into
southwest Iowa today.

NEZ011-016-017-030>032-042-043-050-065-180000-
Knox-Antelope-Pierce-Boone-Madison-Stanton-Platte-Colfax-Butler-
Seward-
452 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Showers and thunderstorms will continue on and off today. Isolated
storms could be strong to severe this morning into the afternoon
with large hail or damaging winds. Locally heavy rain could fall
where storms will reside longer. By tonight...the bulk of the
precipitation will have shifted out of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

The chance of thunderstorms will return Thursday night through
Saturday morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible Monday
into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will probably not be needed today or tonight.

Zapotocny

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
713 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE WESTERN            40.36N 97.16W
05/16/2017                   SALINE             NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            THREE PIVOTS BLOWN DOWN AND SOME TREE DAMAGE NOTED.
            DELAYED REPORT.

&&

VDEWALD