Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
314 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

MCS roaring through MN this afternoon with a path taking it
towards southern WI riding along a boundary that stretches just
south of the area or at least running through southwest or
southern WI. Huge dewpoint gradient exists at this time with upper
50s in Sheboygan to lower and mid 70s just south and west of
Madison. MCS will pack a punch most likely with damaging winds and
heavy rainfall possible...to pin point an exact track is still
iffy but it looks like the area will be impacted by this
convective system. Another less likely issue will be behind the
system...possible that strong low level jet perpendicular to the
boundary may help to produce some training cells that could drop
heavy rainfall of a narrow area. Much to watch tonight!

Thursday should see a period of dry conditions with some clouds
lingering...small chance that a few afternoon/evening showers or
thunderstorms could develop. Warm and humid conditions continue.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday

Friday begins a second punch of possible heavy rainfall with
showers and thunderstorms possible through the day. the set-up is
ripe for heavy rainfall with solid dynamics and High PWATS. would
be possible for some to see 2 to 3 inches of rain on Friday.
Slight risk for severe storms on that day...but with many areas
very wet at this time flooding concerns are the main threat
especially for those hit so hard last week. Temps hanging in the
lower 80s for highs.

Over the weekend the chances for showers and thunderstorms are
lesser on Sunday than Saturday. Warmer temps on Sat with mid 80s
and just a bot cooler on Sunday with temps barely hitting 80.
After the weekend mainly dry and pleasant late July conditions
look to continue to start next week with highs in the mid to upper
70s and dewpoints in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Multiple concerns for the TAF period...stratocu lifting across
much of Southern WI is the first concern...no so much at MKE or
UES...but elsewhere an issue for a few more hours at least. The
second concern is the huge thunderstorm complex nearing the MN/IA
border from SD...it should continue to move south and east towards
the region overnight into the area. Timing will be an issue and
it may be earlier than forecast...but it should be expected and
will have the possible impact of strong gusty winds at times and
low visibility and ceilings when it impacts the region. Finally
the last concern will be wind shear overnight...significant low
level jet will be present and linger through the early morning
hours of Thursday. Outside of this light to modest winds and
mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Clouds have lifted from this morning with mainly clear
skies...light winds from the northeast or east will continue.
waves should be very modest at best with the only real concern
the possible shot of thunderstorms from the system moving across
MN at this time. After that threat passes by early morning...light
winds and modest wave action will continue through the day
Thursday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...ABS
Thursday Night through Wednesday...ABS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
331 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-202045-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
331 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of thunderstorms is expected to cross primarily south
central and southwest Wisconsin during the late evening. The
greatest threat from these storms is damaging wind up to 70 mph.
Secondary threats would include large hail, heavy rain, and
possibly a tornado.

Additional thunderstorms are possible late tonight across all of
southern Wisconsin. These storms may also be severe with damaging
winds, large hail, and heavy rain possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday
night.

Thunderstorms are likely Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning. Repeated rounds of storms over the same area may produce
heavy rain that would affect the already high rivers. Gusty winds
and hail are possible at times as well. There is a slight risk for
severe storms during this period.

Heat index values in the middle 90s are forecast across mainly
southern and western portions of the area Thursday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tonight.

LMZ643>646-202045-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
331 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible late tonight. These storms may be
severe with damaging winds and large hail possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday
night.

Thunderstorms are likely Friday through Saturday morning. Gusty
winds and hail are possible at times. There is a slight risk for
severe storms during this period.

SPM

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
829 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

WIZ047-051-052-057>060-063>065-200200-
Dodge-Columbia-Green Lake-Waukesha-Sheboygan-Ozaukee-Washington-Fond
Du Lac-Jefferson-Dane-
829 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN OZAUKEE...FOND DU
LAC...EASTERN GREEN LAKE...NORTHERN WAUKESHA...WASHINGTON...NORTHERN
JEFFERSON...WESTERN SHEBOYGAN AND DODGE COUNTIES...

At 828 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Brandon, or
near Waupun, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fond Du Lac, Menomonee Falls, West Bend, Watertown, Beaver Dam,
Hartford, Waupun, Ripon, Jackson, Mayville, Slinger, North Fond Du
Lac, Columbus, Kewaskum, Horicon, Waterloo, Juneau, Berlin, Lomira
and Campbellsport.

LAT...LON 4390 8888 4389 8841 4394 8840 4393 8816
      4389 8816 4389 8799 4318 8807 4318 8902
      4398 8902 4398 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 273DEG 33KT 4373 8876

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
840 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

WIZ065-066-200345-
Waukesha-Milwaukee-
840 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MILWAUKEE AND WAUKESHA
COUNTIES...

At 840 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lake
Koshkonong, or near Fort Atkinson, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milwaukee, Waukesha, West Allis, Wauwatosa, New Berlin, Brookfield,
Greenfield, Menomonee Falls, Oak Creek, Muskego, South Milwaukee,
Cudahy, Whitefish Bay, Greendale, Pewaukee, Brown Deer, Sussex, St.
Francis, Hartland and Hales Corners.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4284 8784 4284 8854 4319 8853 4318 8788
      4312 8790 4307 8787 4302 8790 4296 8785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 260DEG 23KT 4291 8891

SPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
844 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N COBB                42.97N 90.33W
07/19/2017                   IOWA               WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINES DOWN AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES
            DOWN IN COBB AND MINERAL POINT.

&&

BH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
846 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW BELOIT            42.56N 89.05W
07/19/2017                   ROCK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN THROUGHOUT
            ROCK COUNTY. TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED FROM
            WEATHER RADAR.

&&

BH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
902 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

WIZ070>072-200300-
Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
902 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WALWORTH...CENTRAL
RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES...

At 902 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bohners Lake,
or near Lake Geneva, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kenosha, Racine, Mount Pleasant, Pleasant Prairie, Lake Geneva,
Sturtevant, Twin Lakes, Union Grove, Paddock Lake, Camp Lake,
Rochester, Genoa City, Silver Lake, Richmond, Wind Point, Powers
Lake, Browns Lake, Pell Lake, Eagle Lake and Bohners Lake.

LAT...LON 4274 8842 4278 8775 4276 8777 4271 8777
      4267 8779 4266 8781 4261 8782 4259 8781
      4252 8781 4249 8780 4249 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 266DEG 37KT 4262 8830

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
916 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

WIZ047-056>058-062>064-067>069-200300-
Dodge-Green-Columbia-Lafayette-Iowa-Rock-Green
Lake-Sauk-Jefferson-Dane-
916 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE...SOUTH CENTRAL
GREEN LAKE...NORTHERN GREEN...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN
ROCK...COLUMBIA...DANE...SOUTHEASTERN SAUK...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON
AND SOUTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 913 PM CDT, a gusty winds on the back side of an area of showers
and thunderstorms was occurring. This area of winds is moving moving
southeast at 45 mph.

Winds of 35 to 45 mph are expected. Moderate to heavy rainfall is
possible.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Sun Prairie, Fitchburg, Watertown, Middleton, Beaver Dam,
Stoughton, Waunakee, Verona, Oregon, McFarland, Monona, Mount Horeb,
Windsor, Lake Mills, Evansville, Columbus, Prairie Du Sac, Marshall
and Horicon.

LAT...LON 4309 9009 4374 8908 4338 8850 4271 8930
      4266 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 299DEG 39KT 4316 8955

SPM