Alert archive / Wisconsin / Flash Flood Watches in 2017
Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI
NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this flash flood watch at Jul 20, 2017, 1:30 PM CDT for 15 counties in Wisconsin. It took effect at Jul 21, 2017, 4:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 15 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 20, 2017, 1:30 PM CDT (18:30 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 21, 2017, 4:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Jul 22, 2017, 6:54 AM CDT
- In force
- 15 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Milwaukee, WI
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Green County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Waukesha County, WI
The radar
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 38 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -221 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 647 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 162 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 104 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
138 WGUS63 KMKX 201830 FFAMKX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 ...Heavy Rainfall Expected Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning... .A round of thunderstorms is expected to affect southern Wisconsin Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected, with locally heavier amounts possible. This rain, coupled with the already saturated ground, could result in flash flooding across southern Wisconsin. WIZ056-057-062>064-067>072-210230- /O.NEW.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Sauk-Columbia-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth- Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in south central Wisconsin, Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Rock, and Sauk. In southeast Wisconsin, Jefferson, Kenosha, Racine, and Walworth. * From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning * Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash flooding is difficult to see. && $$ SPM
6 follow-up statements
136 WGUS63 KMKX 210110 FFAMKX Flood Watch National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 810 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 ...Heavy Rainfall Expected Late Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning... .A round of thunderstorms is expected to affect southern Wisconsin late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected, with locally heavier amounts possible. This rain, coupled with the already saturated ground, could result in flash flooding across southern Wisconsin. WIZ056-057-062>064-067>072-210915- /O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Sauk-Columbia-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth- Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 810 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in south central Wisconsin, Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Rock, and Sauk. In southeast Wisconsin, Jefferson, Kenosha, Racine, and Walworth. * From late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning * Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash flooding is difficult to see. && $$
458 WGUS63 KMKX 210837 FFAMKX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 ...Heavy Rainfall Still Expected Late This Afternoon through Tonight... .Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected to affect southern Wisconsin late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall is expected, with locally heavier amounts possible. This rain, coupled with the already saturated ground, could result in flash flooding across southern Wisconsin. WIZ046-058-065-066-211645- /O.EXA.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Marquette-Dodge-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, and Cudahy 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in south central Wisconsin, Marquette. In southeast Wisconsin, Dodge, Milwaukee, and Waukesha. * From late this afternoon into Saturday morning * Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river flooding, and flooded basements. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash flooding is difficult to see. && $$ WIZ056-057-062>064-067>072-211645- /O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Sauk-Columbia-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth- Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in south central Wisconsin, Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Rock, and Sauk. In southeast Wisconsin, Jefferson, Kenosha, Racine, and Walworth. * From this afternoon through Saturday morning * Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash flooding is difficult to see. && $$ MBK
751 WGUS63 KMKX 211539 FFAMKX Flood Watch National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1039 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 ...Heavy Rainfall Still Expected Late This Afternoon through Tonight... .Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected to affect southern Wisconsin late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall is expected, with locally heavier amounts possible. This rain, coupled with the already saturated ground, could result in flash flooding across southern Wisconsin. WIZ046-056>058-062>072-212345- /O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Marquette-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha- Milwaukee-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 1039 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in south central Wisconsin, Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Marquette, Rock, and Sauk. In southeast Wisconsin, Dodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth, and Waukesha. * From 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday morning * Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash flooding is difficult to see. && $$
060 WGUS63 KMKX 212045 FFAMKX Flood Watch National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 ...Heavy Rainfall Still Expected Late This Afternoon through Tonight... .Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected to affect southern Wisconsin late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall is expected, with locally heavier amounts possible. This rain, coupled with the already saturated ground, could result in flash flooding across far southern and southwest Wisconsin. WIZ046-212145- /O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Marquette- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, and Endeavor 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for Marquette County has been cancelled. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be south of this region. $$ WIZ056>058-062>072-220445- /O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in south central Wisconsin, Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Rock, and Sauk. In southeast Wisconsin, Dodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth, and Waukesha. * Through Saturday morning * Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash flooding is difficult to see. && $$
543 WGUS63 KMKX 220833 FFAMKX Flood Watch National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 333 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 ...Heavy Rain Diminishing Through the Morning... .Heavy rain occurred over southwest Wisconsin Friday and through the overnight hours. The persistent ongoing rain could result in flash flooding through mid morning. WIZ056>058-062>066-220945- /O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170722T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, and Cudahy 333 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin has been cancelled. Most of south central and southeast Wisconsin escaped the heavy rain with less than one inch to nearly 3 inches yesterday and last night. The rain has ended and flash flooding is no longer a threat. $$ WIZ067>072-221400- /O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170722T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 333 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Counties in far southern Wisconsin, including Lafayette, Green, Rock, Walworth, Racine and Kenosha. * Until 9 AM CDT this morning * Additional rainfall up to a half inch is possible and could cause flooding in already saturated areas. * Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash flooding is difficult to see. && $$ Cronce
692 WGUS63 KMKX 221154 FFAMKX Flood Watch National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 654 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 WIZ067>072-221300- /O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170722T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 654 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin has been cancelled. The rain has ended and flash flooding is no longer a threat except in Lafayette County and southern Iowa County where a Flash Flood Warning remains in effect. $$ Cronce
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 20, 10:02 AM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 10:02 AM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1002 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .UPDATE... Stationary frontal zone remains draped across far southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. While the better upper forcing has shifted off to our east, there is still a bit of weak warm advection and frontogenesis response along the front from southwest Wisconsin into northeast Iowa and northwest Illinois. Scattered showers were occuring south of the Wisconsin state line this morning, and this is where the better chance for rain should remain today. However, given the continued weak forcing along the front, can't rule out a few showers or storms through this afternoon. The best chance for this will be in our south along the Illinois border. Look for the frontal zone to lift north into southern Wisconsin on Friday, with moisture transport increasing from late afternoon into evening. Deep layer moisture will rapidly increase from the southwest as the front lifts north, with precipitable water values climbing from around one inch Friday morning, to nearly two inches late Friday afternoon. Available moisture parameters point towards high precipitation efficiency, with near parallel mid to upper flow along the frontal zone. Our concern for heavy rainfall remains from Friday evening into Saturday morning, and we will be assessing the need for a Flash Flood Watch today. && .MARINE... Offshore flow this morning will turn north to northeasterly later today, with speeds generally under 15 knots. Slight chance for a shower or storm today, but the better chances for storms arrives Friday afternoon into Friday night. Prevailing winds and waves look to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, although higher winds and waves are possible in thunderstorms on Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 658 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017) UPDATE...Showers and t-storms continue to diminish as low level jet pivotes eastward away from southern WI. Weaker warm air advection lingers this morning, so wl continue small chance for t-storms redeveloping later this morning. AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Not seeing much indication of MVFR/IFR cigs yet so postponed low cloud developing. May yet develop later this morning due to moist low levels and weak frontal boundary passing through. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017) SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium. Strong warm air advection and low level frontogenesis will continue to carry thunderstorms across southern WI through the early morning. The low level jet pivots off to the east after 12Z so expecting a rapidly diminishing trend through mid-morning. Main threat is heavy rainfall as mesoscale analysis reveals considerable MLCin across the area, but can not rule out an isolated severe. Several Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories in affect from the Madison area. Portions of Sauk County has already received 2-3 inches of rainfall, so may need to issue a Flash Flood Warning depending on what areas these upstream storms affect. Will continue small chances for convection redeveloping across mainly southern CWA later today and then again later tonight. Weaker low to mid-level warm air advection continues across parts of southern Wi north of the outflow boundary weak front that will be settling southward across northern IL. Clouds will stick around this morning but then gradually thin and clear but southern areas may not see the clearing until late in the day. LONG TERM... Friday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is High. Heavy rainfall possible this period. Southern WI is in a prime area for showers and storms over a fairly long period of time late this week. There will be zonal flow aloft with a few ripples/shortwaves, the right entrance region of the upper jet tracking over central WI, warm air advection, and moisture transport on the nose of the low level jet from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 2 inches during this time, which is around 175% of normal. Showers with isolated thunder should be very efficient Friday night and we will continue to monitor this period for a flash flood potential. There is still uncertainty about where the front, storm evolution, and axis of heaviest precip will be, but the favorable heavy rain set-up warrants the extra attention. Showers and storms will be possible Fri morning with general upward motion over the area. The higher precipitable water will begin to spread into southern WI by the afternoon with the warm front. This will allow for more instability and we could see a few strong storms Fri afternoon. SPC has our area in a slight risk for severe storms. The forecast soundings show more on a moist adiabatic profile for the overnight hours, thus showers with scattered/chance of thunder is in the fcst for this period with the heavy rain potential. We will lose the low level jet and other sources of stronger forcing Saturday morning, but there could still be a few lingering showers and storms with continued moisture over the area. Saturday night looks dry as high pressure briefly passes by. Sunday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium. A more amplified upper trough is expected to roll across Lake Superior on Sunday. The associated surface low should move across northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with this, but moisture and instability are still questionable. High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first part of next week. Our next chance for storms will arrive with a warm front Tuesday night. AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect southern WI through the early morning. Cigs will be temporarily lower vcnty of storms. MVFR or possibly lower cigs could linger for a time this morning in moist, light flow after showers and storms diminish. Then clearing skies will affect northern areas, but may have trouble clearing in the southern CWA until late today. MARINE... Thunderstorms will affect the near shore waters early this morning and then diminish or become more isolated by late morning and afternoon. Mainly offshore winds will turn to the north to northeast later this morning as thunderstorm outflow and weak front slide southward. Winds look to remain less than 20 knots except in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Next chance for more widespread thunderstorms is Friday night. HYDROLOGY... The time period to watch for excessive rainfall is Friday afternoon through Saturday night. This active period of weather has the potential for training of storms over the same areas to bring the risk for heavy rainfall. The recent heavy rainfall and additional rain would aggravate ongoing flooding across far southeast Wisconsin and create flooding issues elsewhere, especially in urban areas. Once more confidence is gained with timing of these rounds of storms, expected rainfall amounts will become more clear. Keep up with the latest forecasts into this weekend. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && Update...SPM Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Cronce
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 3:29 AM CDT, 10 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 329 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-210830- Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- 329 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will track across southern Wisconsin through the early morning hours. Heavy rain is expected with these storms. A few storms could produce gusty winds and hail. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-94 the rest of the day and again late tonight. Heat index values in the middle to upper 90s are forecast across far southern Wisconsin today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Thunderstorms will become likely by Friday afternoon and overspread all of southern Wisconsin Friday night before tapering off Saturday. Repeated rounds of storms over the same area may produce heavy rain that would affect the already high rivers. Gusty winds and hail are possible at times. There is a slight risk for severe storms during this period. Heat index values in the middle 90s are forecast across mainly southern and western portions of the area Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed Today or Tonight. LMZ643>646-210830- Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 329 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will track across the area through the early morning hours. A few storms could produce gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Thunderstorms will become likely by Friday afternoon and overspread all of southern Wisconsin Friday night before tapering off Saturday. Gusty winds and hail are possible at times. There is a slight risk for severe storms during this period. Cronce www.weather.gov/mkx
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:29 AM CDT, 3 hours 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1029 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S SHOREWOOD HILLS 43.05N 89.44W
07/20/2017 M3.23 INCH DANE WI COCORAHS
&&Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:31 AM CDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1031 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE BLUE MOUNDS 42.97N 89.79W
07/20/2017 M3.55 INCH DANE WI COCORAHS
MEASURED 4 SW OF MT. HOREB.
&&Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:32 AM CDT, 2 hours 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1032 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE BROOKLYN 42.86N 89.36W
07/20/2017 M3.13 INCH DANE WI COCORAHS
&&Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:33 AM CDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE MONTICELLO 42.73N 89.56W
07/20/2017 M3.23 INCH GREEN WI COCORAHS
&&Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:35 AM CDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1035 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW MAZOMANIE 43.16N 89.82W
07/20/2017 M3.12 INCH DANE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
&&Local storm report, Jul 20, 12:02 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1202 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1027 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW ARGYLE 42.64N 89.92W
07/20/2017 M4.23 INCH LAFAYETTE WI COCORAHS
MEASURED 3 E OF WIOTA.
0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW SOUTH WAYNE 42.53N 89.94W
07/20/2017 M3.98 INCH LAFAYETTE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE MONTICELLO 42.73N 89.56W
07/20/2017 M3.23 INCH GREEN WI COCORAHS
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE DARLINGTON 42.68N 90.11W
07/20/2017 M4.20 INCH LAFAYETTE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN MIDDLETON 43.10N 89.51W
07/20/2017 M2.63 INCH DANE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN LODI 43.32N 89.53W
07/20/2017 M2.61 INCH COLUMBIA WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW MAZOMANIE 43.16N 89.82W
07/20/2017 M3.12 INCH DANE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW MOUNT HOREB 42.99N 89.74W
07/20/2017 M3.23 INCH DANE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN MILTON 42.78N 88.95W
07/20/2017 M2.03 INCH ROCK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW SAUK CITY 43.26N 89.74W
07/20/2017 M3.05 INCH SAUK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW ROCK SPRINGS 43.45N 89.96W
07/20/2017 M5.38 INCH SAUK WI COCORAHS
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW CLINTON 42.55N 88.87W
07/20/2017 M2.59 INCH ROCK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W MONROE 42.60N 89.67W
07/20/2017 M3.50 INCH GREEN WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S SHOREWOOD HILLS 43.05N 89.44W
07/20/2017 M3.23 INCH DANE WI COCORAHS
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE BELOIT 42.56N 88.98W
07/20/2017 M3.40 INCH ROCK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S REEDSBURG 43.52N 90.00W
07/20/2017 M3.74 INCH SAUK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE BROOKLYN 42.86N 89.36W
07/20/2017 M3.13 INCH DANE WI COCORAHS
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE BLUE MOUNDS 42.97N 89.79W
07/20/2017 M3.55 INCH DANE WI COCORAHS
MEASURED 4 SW OF MT. HOREB.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 W WAUNAKEE 43.19N 89.55W
07/20/2017 M2.46 INCH DANE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE BARNEVELD 43.00N 89.89W
07/20/2017 M3.50 INCH IOWA WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0752 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE DARLINGTON 42.70N 90.09W
07/20/2017 M4.12 INCH LAFAYETTE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0751 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE STOUGHTON 42.91N 89.22W
07/20/2017 M2.44 INCH DANE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0750 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE REEDSBURG 43.55N 89.99W
07/20/2017 M3.02 INCH SAUK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0710 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE FOOTVILLE 42.62N 89.14W
07/20/2017 E2.33 INCH ROCK WI TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 9 PM WEDNESDAY.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN PLAIN 43.28N 90.04W
07/20/2017 M3.73 INCH SAUK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN BRODHEAD 42.62N 89.38W
07/20/2017 M2.94 INCH GREEN WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW SHOREWOOD HILLS 43.06N 89.48W
07/20/2017 M2.41 INCH DANE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
MEASURED AT UW CHARMANY FARM.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 WNW SPRING GREEN 43.21N 90.19W
07/20/2017 M2.84 INCH SAUK WI ASOS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW BELOIT 42.60N 89.07W
07/20/2017 M2.60 INCH ROCK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
0655 AM HEAVY RAIN ROCK SPRINGS 43.48N 89.92W
07/20/2017 E4.00 INCH SAUK WI TRAINED SPOTTER
0615 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSW EDGERTON 42.76N 89.11W
07/20/2017 E2.27 INCH ROCK WI TRAINED SPOTTER
12 HOUR TOTAL.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 7:01 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MKX | Iowa, Sauk | 29 min |
| Jul 19, 7:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Dane, Green, Rock | 80 min |
| Jul 19, 7:24 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Columbia, Sauk | 81 min |
| Jul 19, 7:34 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Green Lake, Marquette | 26 min |
| Jul 19, 7:48 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MKX | Dane, Green, Rock | 42 min |
| Jul 19, 7:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Jefferson, Rock, Walworth | 67 min |
| Jul 19, 8:28 PM CDT | Special Marine Warning | MKX | 2 hr | |
| Jul 19, 8:29 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Washington | 31 min |
| Jul 19, 8:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Kenosha, Racine, Walworth | 26 min |
| Jul 19, 8:40 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Milwaukee, Waukesha | 2 hr |
| Jul 19, 9:02 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Kenosha | 58 min |
| Jul 19, 9:16 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Columbia, Dane, Dodge | 44 min |
| Jul 19, 9:32 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MKX | Dane | 118 min |
| Jul 19, 10:03 PM CDT | Special Marine Warning | MKX | 87 min | |
| Jul 19, 10:09 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Dodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine and 5 more | 81 min |
| Jul 19, 10:28 PM CDT | High Wind Warning | MKX | Dane, Dodge, Green, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 19, 10:35 PM CDT | Special Marine Warning | MKX | 85 min | |
| Jul 20, 12:26 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Columbia, Sauk | 94 min |
| Jul 20, 12:33 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MKX | Sauk | 6 hr |
| Jul 20, 1:20 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MKX | Dane | 3 hr |
| Jul 20, 1:50 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Sauk | 55 min |
| Jul 20, 2:26 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MKX | Dane, Iowa, Sauk | 3 hr |
| Jul 20, 3:12 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MKX | Green, Lafayette | 3 hr |
| Jul 20, 3:42 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Iowa | 78 min |
| Jul 20, 5:07 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Green, Lafayette | 38 min |
| Jul 20, 6:08 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Kenosha, Walworth | 52 min |
| Jul 20, 7:03 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MKX | Sauk | 7 days |
| Jul 20, 7:03 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MKX | Sauk | 4 days |
| Jul 20, 7:03 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MKX | Sauk | 9 days |
| Jul 20, 9:54 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MKX | Rock | 3 days |
| Jul 20, 10:04 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MKX | Lafayette | 34 hr |
| Jul 20, 10:04 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MKX | Green | 13 days |
| Jul 20, 10:04 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MKX | Lafayette | 4 days |
| Jul 20, 10:08 AM CDT | River Flood Watch | MKX | Green, Rock | 4 days |
| Jul 20, 5:41 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | MKX | Green, Rock | 8 days |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in Wisconsin, 2017Every flash flood watch in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.