Alert archive / Wisconsin / Flash Flood Watches in 2017

Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

July 20, 201715 counties in Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this flash flood watch at Jul 20, 2017, 1:30 PM CDT for 15 counties in Wisconsin. It took effect at Jul 21, 2017, 4:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 15 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 20, 2017, 1:30 PM CDT (18:30 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 21, 2017, 4:00 PM CDT
Expired
Jul 22, 2017, 6:54 AM CDT
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Milwaukee, WI
Flood severity
None

Counties Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Green County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2017-07-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 38 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2017-07-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 162 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
38 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-221 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
647 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
162 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
104 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

138 
WGUS63 KMKX 201830
FFAMKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
130 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Expected Friday Afternoon through Saturday
Morning...

.A round of thunderstorms is expected to affect southern 
Wisconsin Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall is expected, with locally heavier amounts possible. 
This rain, coupled with the already saturated ground, could result
in flash flooding across southern Wisconsin. 

WIZ056-057-062>064-067>072-210230-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sauk-Columbia-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-
Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, 
Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Dodgeville, 
Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, 
Jefferson, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, 
Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater,
Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha
130 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Wisconsin and 
  southeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in south 
  central Wisconsin, Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, 
  Rock, and Sauk. In southeast Wisconsin, Jefferson, Kenosha, 
  Racine, and Walworth. 

* From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning

* Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts
  possible.

* Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river
  flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low
ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water rises
could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash flooding
is difficult to see.

&&

$$
SPM
6 follow-up statements
136 
WGUS63 KMKX 210110
FFAMKX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
810 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Expected Late Friday Afternoon through Saturday
Morning...

.A round of thunderstorms is expected to affect southern
Wisconsin late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. 1 to
3 inches of rainfall is expected, with locally heavier amounts
possible. This rain, coupled with the already saturated ground,
could result in flash flooding across southern Wisconsin.

WIZ056-057-062>064-067>072-210915-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sauk-Columbia-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-
Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, 
Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Dodgeville, 
Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, 
Jefferson, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, 
Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater,
Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha
810 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, 
  including the following areas, in south central Wisconsin, 
  Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Rock, and Sauk. In 
  southeast Wisconsin, Jefferson, Kenosha, Racine, and Walworth. 

* From late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning

* Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts 
  possible. 

* Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river 
  flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low
ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water
rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash
flooding is difficult to see.

&&

$$
458 
WGUS63 KMKX 210837
FFAMKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
337 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Still Expected Late This Afternoon through 
Tonight...

.Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected to affect southern 
Wisconsin late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Between 
1 and 3 inches of rainfall is expected, with locally heavier 
amounts possible. This rain, coupled with the already saturated 
ground, could result in flash flooding across southern Wisconsin.

WIZ046-058-065-066-211645-
/O.EXA.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marquette-Dodge-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, Waukesha, Brookfield, 
New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, 
Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, and Cudahy
337 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has expanded
the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of south central 
  Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, including the following 
  areas, in south central Wisconsin, Marquette. In southeast 
  Wisconsin, Dodge, Milwaukee, and Waukesha. 

* From late this afternoon into Saturday morning

* Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts 
  possible. 

* Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river
  flooding, and flooded basements.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low
ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water
rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash
flooding is difficult to see.

&&

$$

WIZ056-057-062>064-067>072-211645-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sauk-Columbia-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-
Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, 
Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Dodgeville, 
Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, Fort Atkinson, 
Jefferson, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, 
Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater,
Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha
337 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, 
  including the following areas, in south central Wisconsin, 
  Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Rock, and Sauk. In 
  southeast Wisconsin, Jefferson, Kenosha, Racine, and Walworth. 

* From this afternoon through Saturday morning

* Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts 
  possible. 

* Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river 
  flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low
ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water
rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash
flooding is difficult to see.

&&

$$
MBK
751 
WGUS63 KMKX 211539
FFAMKX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1039 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Still Expected Late This Afternoon through
Tonight...

.Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected to affect southern
Wisconsin late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Between
1 and 3 inches of rainfall is expected, with locally heavier
amounts possible. This rain, coupled with the already saturated
ground, could result in flash flooding across southern Wisconsin.

WIZ046-056>058-062>072-212345-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marquette-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-
Milwaukee-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
Endeavor, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage,
Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, 
Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Watertown, 
Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, 
Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, 
Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Darlington, 
Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, 
Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, 
Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha
1039 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, 
  including the following areas, in south central Wisconsin, 
  Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Marquette, Rock, and 
  Sauk. In southeast Wisconsin, Dodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, 
  Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth, and Waukesha. 

* From 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday morning

* Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts 
  possible. 

* Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river 
  flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low
ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water
rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash
flooding is difficult to see.

&&

$$
060 
WGUS63 KMKX 212045
FFAMKX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
345 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Still Expected Late This Afternoon through
Tonight...

.Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected to affect southern
Wisconsin late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Between
1 and 3 inches of rainfall is expected, with locally heavier
amounts possible. This rain, coupled with the already saturated
ground, could result in flash flooding across far southern and
southwest Wisconsin.

WIZ046-212145-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marquette-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, 
and Endeavor
345 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for Marquette County has been cancelled. The
heaviest rainfall is expected to be south of this region.

$$

WIZ056>058-062>072-220445-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0002.170721T2100Z-170722T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, 
Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, 
Waupun, Mayville, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, 
Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, 
New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, 
Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, 
Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, 
Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, 
Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha
345 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin, 
  including the following areas, in south central Wisconsin, 
  Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Rock, and Sauk. In 
  southeast Wisconsin, Dodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, 
  Racine, Walworth, and Waukesha. 

* Through Saturday morning

* Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts 
  possible. 

* Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river 
  flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low
ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water
rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash
flooding is difficult to see.

&&

$$
543 
WGUS63 KMKX 220833
FFAMKX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
333 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...Heavy Rain Diminishing Through the Morning...

.Heavy rain occurred over southwest Wisconsin Friday and through
the overnight hours. The persistent ongoing rain could result in
flash flooding through mid morning.

WIZ056>058-062>066-220945-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170722T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, 
Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, 
Waupun, Mayville, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, 
Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, 
New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, 
Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, and Cudahy
333 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Wisconsin and
southeast Wisconsin has been cancelled. Most of south central and
southeast Wisconsin escaped the heavy rain with less than one inch
to nearly 3 inches yesterday and last night. The rain has ended 
and flash flooding is no longer a threat.

$$

WIZ067>072-221400-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170722T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, 
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, 
and Kenosha
333 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Counties in far southern Wisconsin, including Lafayette, Green,
  Rock, Walworth, Racine and Kenosha.  

* Until 9 AM CDT this morning

* Additional rainfall up to a half inch is possible and could
  cause flooding in already saturated areas.

* Impacts could include flooded roads and intersections, river 
  flooding, and possible rock and mud slides in hilly terrain. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Those outside, including campers and hikers, should avoid low
ground and areas along rivers and streams, where rapid water
rises could occur. Be especially cautious at night, when flash
flooding is difficult to see.

&&

$$
Cronce
692 
WGUS63 KMKX 221154
FFAMKX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
654 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017


WIZ067>072-221300-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170722T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, 
Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, 
Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, 
and Kenosha
654 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Wisconsin and
southeast Wisconsin has been cancelled. The rain has ended 
and flash flooding is no longer a threat except in Lafayette
County and southern Iowa County where a Flash Flood Warning
remains in effect.

$$

Cronce

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 20, 10:02 AM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 10:02 AM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1002 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE...

Stationary frontal zone remains draped across far southern
Wisconsin into northern Illinois. While the better upper forcing
has shifted off to our east, there is still a bit of weak warm
advection and frontogenesis response along the front from
southwest Wisconsin into northeast Iowa and northwest Illinois.
Scattered showers were occuring south of the Wisconsin state line
this morning, and this is where the better chance for rain should
remain today. However, given the continued weak forcing along the
front, can't rule out a few showers or storms through this
afternoon. The best chance for this will be in our south along the
Illinois border.

Look for the frontal zone to lift north into southern Wisconsin on
Friday, with moisture transport increasing from late afternoon
into evening. Deep layer moisture will rapidly increase from the
southwest as the front lifts north, with precipitable water
values climbing from around one inch Friday morning, to nearly two
inches late Friday afternoon. Available moisture parameters point
towards high precipitation efficiency, with near parallel mid to
upper flow along the frontal zone. Our concern for heavy rainfall
remains from Friday evening into Saturday morning, and we will be
assessing the need for a Flash Flood Watch today.

&&

.MARINE...

Offshore flow this morning will turn north to northeasterly later
today, with speeds generally under 15 knots. Slight chance for a
shower or storm today, but the better chances for storms arrives
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Prevailing winds and waves
look to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, although higher
winds and waves are possible in thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 658 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017)

UPDATE...Showers and t-storms continue to diminish as low level
jet pivotes eastward away from southern WI. Weaker warm air
advection lingers this morning, so wl continue small chance for
t-storms redeveloping later this morning.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Not seeing much indication of MVFR/IFR cigs
yet so postponed low cloud developing. May yet develop later this
morning due to moist low levels and weak frontal boundary passing
through.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017)

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium.

Strong warm air advection and low level frontogenesis will continue
to carry thunderstorms across southern WI through the early morning.
 The low level jet pivots off to the east after 12Z so expecting a
rapidly diminishing trend through mid-morning.  Main threat is heavy
rainfall as mesoscale analysis reveals considerable MLCin across the
area, but can not rule out an isolated severe.  Several Urban and
Small Stream Flood Advisories in affect from the Madison area.
Portions of Sauk County has already received 2-3 inches of rainfall,
so may need to issue a Flash Flood Warning depending on what
areas these upstream storms affect.

Will continue small chances for convection redeveloping across
mainly southern CWA later today and then again later tonight. Weaker
low to mid-level warm air advection continues across parts of
southern Wi north of the outflow boundary weak front that will be
settling southward across northern IL.  Clouds will stick around
this morning but then gradually thin and clear but southern areas
may not see the clearing until late in the day.

LONG TERM...

Friday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is High.

Heavy rainfall possible this period. Southern WI is in a prime
area for showers and storms over a fairly long period of time late
this week. There will be zonal flow aloft with a few
ripples/shortwaves, the right entrance region of the upper jet
tracking over central WI, warm air advection, and moisture
transport on the nose of the low level jet from Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are expected
to be around 2 inches during this time, which is around 175% of
normal. Showers with isolated thunder should be very efficient
Friday night and we will continue to monitor this period for a
flash flood potential.

There is still uncertainty about where the front, storm
evolution, and axis of heaviest precip will be, but the favorable
heavy rain set-up warrants the extra attention.

Showers and storms will be possible Fri morning with general
upward motion over the area. The higher precipitable water will
begin to spread into southern WI by the afternoon with the warm
front. This will allow for more instability and we could see a few
strong storms Fri afternoon. SPC has our area in a slight risk for
severe storms. The forecast soundings show more on a moist
adiabatic profile for the overnight hours, thus showers with
scattered/chance of thunder is in the fcst for this period with
the heavy rain potential.

We will lose the low level jet and other sources of stronger
forcing Saturday morning, but there could still be a few lingering
showers and storms with continued moisture over the area.

Saturday night looks dry as high pressure briefly passes by.

Sunday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A more amplified upper trough is expected to roll across Lake
Superior on Sunday. The associated surface low should move across
northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday
Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with
this, but moisture and instability are still questionable.

High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first
part of next week. Our next chance for storms will arrive with a
warm front Tuesday night.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue to affect southern WI through the early morning.  Cigs will
be temporarily lower vcnty of storms.  MVFR or possibly lower cigs
could linger for a time this morning in moist, light flow after
showers and storms diminish.  Then clearing skies will affect
northern areas, but may have trouble clearing in the southern CWA
until late today.

MARINE...

Thunderstorms will affect the near shore waters early this morning
and then diminish or become more isolated by late morning and
afternoon.  Mainly offshore winds will turn to the north to
northeast later this morning as thunderstorm outflow and weak front
slide southward.  Winds look to remain less than 20 knots except in
the vicinity of thunderstorms.  Next chance for more widespread
thunderstorms is Friday night.

HYDROLOGY...

The time period to watch for excessive rainfall is Friday
afternoon through Saturday night. This active period of weather
has the potential for training of storms over the same areas to
bring the risk for heavy rainfall.

The recent heavy rainfall and additional rain would aggravate
ongoing flooding across far southeast Wisconsin and create
flooding issues elsewhere, especially in urban areas. Once more
confidence is gained with timing of these rounds of storms,
expected rainfall amounts will become more clear. Keep up with the
latest forecasts into this weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...SPM
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Cronce
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 3:29 AM CDT, 10 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-210830-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
329 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will track across southern Wisconsin
through the early morning hours. Heavy rain is expected with these
storms. A few storms could produce gusty winds and hail.

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly south
of I-94 the rest of the day and again late tonight.

Heat index values in the middle to upper 90s are forecast across
far southern Wisconsin today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms will become likely by Friday afternoon and
overspread all of southern Wisconsin Friday night before tapering
off Saturday. Repeated rounds of storms over the same area may
produce heavy rain that would affect the already high rivers.
Gusty winds and hail are possible at times. There is a slight
risk for severe storms during this period.

Heat index values in the middle 90s are forecast across mainly
southern and western portions of the area Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed Today or Tonight.

LMZ643>646-210830-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
329 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will track across the area through the
early morning hours. A few storms could produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms will become likely by Friday afternoon and
overspread all of southern Wisconsin Friday night before tapering
off Saturday. Gusty winds and hail are possible at times. There
is a slight risk for severe storms during this period.

Cronce

www.weather.gov/mkx

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:29 AM CDT, 3 hours 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1029 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S SHOREWOOD HILLS     43.05N 89.44W
07/20/2017  M3.23 INCH       DANE               WI   COCORAHS

&&
Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:31 AM CDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1031 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSE BLUE MOUNDS       42.97N 89.79W
07/20/2017  M3.55 INCH       DANE               WI   COCORAHS

            MEASURED 4 SW OF MT. HOREB.

&&
Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:32 AM CDT, 2 hours 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1032 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE BROOKLYN           42.86N 89.36W
07/20/2017  M3.13 INCH       DANE               WI   COCORAHS

&&
Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:33 AM CDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE MONTICELLO         42.73N 89.56W
07/20/2017  M3.23 INCH       GREEN              WI   COCORAHS

&&
Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:35 AM CDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1035 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW MAZOMANIE          43.16N 89.82W
07/20/2017  M3.12 INCH       DANE               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&
Local storm report, Jul 20, 12:02 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1202 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SSW ARGYLE            42.64N 89.92W
07/20/2017  M4.23 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   COCORAHS

            MEASURED 3 E OF WIOTA.

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW SOUTH WAYNE        42.53N 89.94W
07/20/2017  M3.98 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE MONTICELLO         42.73N 89.56W
07/20/2017  M3.23 INCH       GREEN              WI   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE DARLINGTON        42.68N 90.11W
07/20/2017  M4.20 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MIDDLETON               43.10N 89.51W
07/20/2017  M2.63 INCH       DANE               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LODI                    43.32N 89.53W
07/20/2017  M2.61 INCH       COLUMBIA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW MAZOMANIE          43.16N 89.82W
07/20/2017  M3.12 INCH       DANE               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW MOUNT HOREB       42.99N 89.74W
07/20/2017  M3.23 INCH       DANE               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MILTON                  42.78N 88.95W
07/20/2017  M2.03 INCH       ROCK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW SAUK CITY         43.26N 89.74W
07/20/2017  M3.05 INCH       SAUK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW ROCK SPRINGS       43.45N 89.96W
07/20/2017  M5.38 INCH       SAUK               WI   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW CLINTON            42.55N 88.87W
07/20/2017  M2.59 INCH       ROCK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W MONROE              42.60N 89.67W
07/20/2017  M3.50 INCH       GREEN              WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S SHOREWOOD HILLS     43.05N 89.44W
07/20/2017  M3.23 INCH       DANE               WI   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE BELOIT             42.56N 88.98W
07/20/2017  M3.40 INCH       ROCK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S REEDSBURG           43.52N 90.00W
07/20/2017  M3.74 INCH       SAUK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE BROOKLYN           42.86N 89.36W
07/20/2017  M3.13 INCH       DANE               WI   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSE BLUE MOUNDS       42.97N 89.79W
07/20/2017  M3.55 INCH       DANE               WI   COCORAHS

            MEASURED 4 SW OF MT. HOREB.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 W WAUNAKEE            43.19N 89.55W
07/20/2017  M2.46 INCH       DANE               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE BARNEVELD         43.00N 89.89W
07/20/2017  M3.50 INCH       IOWA               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0752 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE DARLINGTON         42.70N 90.09W
07/20/2017  M4.12 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0751 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE STOUGHTON         42.91N 89.22W
07/20/2017  M2.44 INCH       DANE               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0750 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE REEDSBURG         43.55N 89.99W
07/20/2017  M3.02 INCH       SAUK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0710 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SE FOOTVILLE          42.62N 89.14W
07/20/2017  E2.33 INCH       ROCK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 9 PM WEDNESDAY.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PLAIN                   43.28N 90.04W
07/20/2017  M3.73 INCH       SAUK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BRODHEAD                42.62N 89.38W
07/20/2017  M2.94 INCH       GREEN              WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW SHOREWOOD HILLS    43.06N 89.48W
07/20/2017  M2.41 INCH       DANE               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED AT UW CHARMANY FARM.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 WNW SPRING GREEN      43.21N 90.19W
07/20/2017  M2.84 INCH       SAUK               WI   ASOS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NNW BELOIT            42.60N 89.07W
07/20/2017  M2.60 INCH       ROCK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0655 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ROCK SPRINGS            43.48N 89.92W
07/20/2017  E4.00 INCH       SAUK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSW EDGERTON          42.76N 89.11W
07/20/2017  E2.27 INCH       ROCK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 19, 7:01 PM CDTTornado WarningMKXIowa, Sauk29 min
Jul 19, 7:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDane, Green, Rock80 min
Jul 19, 7:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXColumbia, Sauk81 min
Jul 19, 7:34 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXGreen Lake, Marquette26 min
Jul 19, 7:48 PM CDTTornado WarningMKXDane, Green, Rock42 min
Jul 19, 7:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXJefferson, Rock, Walworth67 min
Jul 19, 8:28 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningMKX2 hr
Jul 19, 8:29 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXDodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Washington31 min
Jul 19, 8:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXKenosha, Racine, Walworth26 min
Jul 19, 8:40 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXMilwaukee, Waukesha2 hr
Jul 19, 9:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXKenosha58 min
Jul 19, 9:16 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXColumbia, Dane, Dodge44 min
Jul 19, 9:32 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMKXDane118 min
Jul 19, 10:03 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningMKX87 min
Jul 19, 10:09 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXDodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine and 5 more81 min
Jul 19, 10:28 PM CDTHigh Wind WarningMKXDane, Dodge, Green, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee and 6 more2 hr
Jul 19, 10:35 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningMKX85 min
Jul 20, 12:26 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXColumbia, Sauk94 min
Jul 20, 12:33 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMKXSauk6 hr
Jul 20, 1:20 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMKXDane3 hr
Jul 20, 1:50 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXSauk55 min
Jul 20, 2:26 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMKXDane, Iowa, Sauk3 hr
Jul 20, 3:12 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMKXGreen, Lafayette3 hr
Jul 20, 3:42 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXIowa78 min
Jul 20, 5:07 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXGreen, Lafayette38 min
Jul 20, 6:08 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXKenosha, Walworth52 min
Jul 20, 7:03 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXSauk7 days
Jul 20, 7:03 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXSauk4 days
Jul 20, 7:03 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXSauk9 days
Jul 20, 9:54 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXRock3 days
Jul 20, 10:04 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXLafayette34 hr
Jul 20, 10:04 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXGreen13 days
Jul 20, 10:04 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXLafayette4 days
Jul 20, 10:08 AM CDTRiver Flood WatchMKXGreen, Rock4 days
Jul 20, 5:41 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXGreen, Rock8 days

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Wisconsin, 2017Every flash flood watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.