Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Medford, OR

105 
WWUS56 KMFR 050244
SVSMFR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
744 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

ORC029-050300-
/O.CON.KMFR.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170505T0300Z/
Jackson OR-
744 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM PDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY...

At 744 PM PDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thousand
Springs Sno-Park, or 12 miles west of Crater Lake, moving north at 40
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Prospect, Union Creek, Prospect State Scenic Viewpoint, Natural
Bridge Campground and Rogue Gorge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4270 12238 4271 12255 4293 12250 4287 12229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 198DEG 35KT 4286 12237 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MAS

072 
WWUS56 KMFR 050256
SVSMFR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
756 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

ORC029-050306-
/O.EXP.KMFR.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170505T0300Z/
Jackson OR-
756 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM PDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
portions of northast Jackson, northwest Klamath and far eastern 
Douglas Counties.

LAT...LON 4270 12238 4271 12255 4293 12250 4287 12229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 198DEG 35KT 4295 12233 

$$

MAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
537 PM PDT Thu May 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated the aviation and marine sections.

&&

.AVIATION...05/00Z TAF CYCLE...IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog are
entrenched along the coast and will prevail through tonight with
occasional drizzle and the coastal mountains mainly obscured.

Meanwhile, a different environment exists inland. VFR prevails
though with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Coverage may
increase to scattered during the early evening with development
favored near the Cascades...especially in eastern Douglas County.
These storms may produce strong wind gusts, hail and heavy rain
through 04Z this evening. So, turbulence could be an issue in the
vicinity of KMFR/KLMT.

A cold front will move to the coast around 11Z then spread inland
Friday morning into early Friday afternoon with light showers as
well as areas of MVFR and mountain obscuration mainly from the
Cascades westward. -DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 400 PM PDT Thursday, 4 May 2017...Seas will
remain swell dominated tonight while a cold front moves through the
waters. High pressure offshore and a thermal trough inland will
bring increasing northwest winds Friday through the weekend.
Moderate northwest swell will be near to slightly higher than
current levels but the trend of increasing winds will bring
gradually increasing seas to a peak on Sunday evening. Small craft
advisory level winds will first develop south of Gold Beach beyond 5
NM from shore on Friday afternoon and evening. By Saturday, advisory
level conditions will extend across the waters south of Cape Blanco
beyond 5 NM from shore with gale force gusts possible in the
afternoon and evening south of Gold Beach. Advisory level conditions
may spread north of Cape Blanco on Sunday with a mix of steep to
very steep seas likely south of Cape Blanco. Gales are likely south
of Port Orford on Sunday afternoon and evening. Conditions are
likely to improve on Monday. -DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 PM PDT Thu May 4 2017/

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...
Temperatures and dewpoints have remained high across the area
today, and thunderstorms have begun firing along and near
Interstate 5 south of Roseburg. A severe thunderstorm has been
issued for a cell near Myrtle Creek and some hail has been
reported.

Model guidance indicates that the forecast remains on track for
showers and thunderstorms across the interior West Side, where
CAPES are expected to be 1500 to 3000 J/Kg. Thus, expect the
shower and thunderstorm activity will increase east of where it is
now across Douglas, Jackson, and Siskiyou Counties and into the
Cascades. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds are the main
threats in addition to cloud to ground lightning with these
storms.

It will turn much, MUCH cooler Friday with highs 30 degrees
cooler than today across the Interior West Side. We also expect a
fair amount of rain in that same area, around a quarter of an
inch. The cool and showery weather will continue into Saturday
morning before it diminishes through Sunday. A few inches of snow
is possible above 6000 feet by Saturday morning.

Some frost is expected on the West Side and Shasta Valley as early
as Saturday morning, but more likely Sunday and possibly Monday
mornings. BTL

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...
As I suspected yesterday, the models have shifted the large
closed low further south with the last few runs. This allows high
pressure to build in a bit more and persist a bit longer than
previously thought. It will also allow for a fairly strong thermal
trough to take shape. The end result will be dry weather with
mostly clear skies and generally offshore flow for Monday and
Tuesday. Have bumped up daytime temperatures a bit, and also
nudged overnight temperatures higher for much of the West Side,
especially the ridgelines and along the coast near Brookings where
the Chetco effect is forecast to be in play.

The models show the ridge breaking down and another trough
approaching the area from the west by midweek. The trough itself is
resolved by nearly all of the model suites, but there is a wide
spread in timing and track. The latest runs would suggest the arrival
of precipitation later on Wednesday, but with the variation in
solutions, have kept a slight chance of precipitation in place
Tuesday night into Wedensday morning. Confidence is much too low to
nail down any specifics, especially if the models change their minds
again, but it does appear likely that the pattern will shift to cool
and wet by the end of the week. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through
     Sunday evening for PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 5 PM PDT Saturday for
     PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for PZZ356-376.

MAS/BTL/DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
650 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             2 SSE MEDFORD           42.31N 122.83W
05/04/2017  E0.25 INCH       JACKSON            OR   PUBLIC

&&

CZS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
655 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             1 NNW EAGLE POINT       42.48N 122.80W
05/04/2017  M1.00 INCH       JACKSON            OR   PUBLIC

&&

CZS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
709 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

CAZ080-081-050245-
Central Siskiyou County CA-Western Siskiyou County CA-
709 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 708 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fort Jones, or 13 miles southwest of Yreka, moving north at 40 mph.

Half inch hail, heavy rain and winds in excess of 30 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Jones, Tree Of Heaven Campground, Klamath River and Scott Bar.

* This includes the following highways...
   Highway 3 in California between mile markers 30 and 34.
   Highway 96 in California between mile markers 76 and 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 12286 4159 12305 4192 12299 4188 12258
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 199DEG 37KT 4164 12287

MAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
717 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

ORZ026>028-050245-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades OR-
South Central Oregon Cascades OR-Jackson County OR-
717 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM PDT...

At 717 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Butte Falls, or 26 miles northeast of Medford, moving north at 40
mph.

Half inch hail, heavy rainfall and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butte Falls, Prospect, Joseph Stewart State Park and Prospect State
Scenic Viewpoint.

* This includes...
   Highway 62 in Oregon between mile markers 31 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 12236 4249 12269 4285 12265 4289 12229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 199DEG 36KT 4262 12251

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
719 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             3 SE MEDFORD            42.31N 122.82W
05/04/2017  E0.25 INCH       JACKSON            OR   PUBLIC

            RELAYED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

CZS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
723 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

ORZ025-027-050245-
South Central Oregon Cascades-Eastern Douglas County Foothills-
723 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES...

At 722 PM PDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Rogue Gorge, or 15 miles northwest of Crater Lake, moving north at 25
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Thielsen View Campground, Whitehorse Falls Recreation Site, Toketee
Falls, Diamond Lake and Clearwater Falls Recreation Site.

* This includes the following highways...
   Highway 230 in Oregon between mile markers 3 and 20.
   Highway 138 in Oregon between mile markers 57 and 69, and between
  mile markers 76 and 79.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4293 12231 4298 12253 4330 12245 4322 12210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 196DEG 21KT 4302 12238

DW